Surf's up!
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Posted on 12/04/2017 10:04:52 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose
Much of the focus these days is on North Korea's nuclear capabilities, but the more significant point is the prospect of REUNIFICATION OF THE TWO KOREAS. It's interesting to ponder what the implications would be for the region and for the U.S. It would also clue us into why countries like China and Russia behave the way they do with regard to diplomatic negotiations there. They may have complex long-term considerations motivating them.
Some questions to consider regarding the prospects of reunification:
* Does disarmament or the fall of the Kim regime automatically imply reunification with the South? Will there be a U.S. military presence in the North? U.N. peacekeepers?
* Are the South Koreans prepared?
* Does China stand to gain or lose?
* Does Japan find a "united Korea" in their interest?
* What about Russia, which also shares a border and already has ongoing exchanges with the country?
* Does historical precedent clue us in to the possibilities? Will Korean reunification go the way of say, East and West Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall?
Taking care of North Korea in the near-term would be a huge economic burden on South Korea. South Koreans are willing to do it, but reunification will be a much tougher burden than reuniting West and East Germany. And apart from the ideological differences people in the North have been brainwashed with, there are huge and growing cultural differences—even the Korean language spoken in North and South is diverging more and more.
No. China likes having a buffer state between them and a prime US Asian ally.
* Will there be a U.S. military presence in the North? U.N. peacekeepers?
Not if China has anything to say about it.
* Are the South Koreans prepared?
Probably not.
* Does China stand to gain or lose?
The only thing China gains is that they will no longer have a nuclear armed rogue state on their border.
* Does Japan find a "united Korea" in their interest?
Probably not.
* What about Russia, which also shares a border and already has ongoing exchanges with the country?
Russia likes having a buffer state between them and a prime US Asian ally.
China would annex it before they let that happen.................
Here are some of my opinions and concerns based on historical and geopolitical understanding:
1) If the government and heads of state in NK fall, the nation would be in chaos and would have to be organized by someone. The citizens of NK are 3 generations into brainwashed.
2) Nations like Russia, China and Iran NEED proxy states. They use them for trade and diplomacy. America, to some extent also relies on other nations but is transparent about our relationships.
3) China may not need NK today as much as times past except as a buffer from South Korea.
4) America hasn’t had the authority (implied or taken) to truly nation build since WWII. So we at best suck at it and at worst don’t have the will to do it. Kinda doing it is the worst approach (IE Afghanistan and Iraq). You either need to go all the way or let chaos find order at the hands of others.
5) The best alternative would be for SK to take over and help NK evolve. But that would be expensive and SK can’t afford it. Neither can the USA.
6.) Japan????
7.) I predict that China would get involved in the clean up and then absorb NK. It gives them the resources they used to buy and more control of the sea in their neighborhood. For China, it would be an investment that could have positive returns.
8.) The west does not have the political will to fight China politically or militarily for NK.
9.) If China takes NK, they will certainly and more fervently want Taiwan.
I predict that in our lifetimes we will see NK as part of Korea. I don’t know how many humans will die before prediction is fulfilled. But I pray Americans (and our allies) don’t have to pay too high of a price.
“* What about Russia, which also shares a border and already has ongoing exchanges with the country? “
—
mostly missile tech apparently ... Russia will sell anything to anyone for the right price hence the sale of missile tech to NOKO - the Chinese aren’t that desperate for cash or that dumb, besides they got most of theirs from the Russians anyway.
Putin will not willingly lose a cash cow, unless presented with a viable replacement.
And then what?!?! Cleaning up the MASSIVE HUMANITARIAN DISASTER created by communism. Disease, starvation, illness, depravity...
Correction....
9.) In our lifetimes we will see NK as part of or a nation Controlled by China (Not Korea - Apologies)
wondering if the US and SK can make an economic proposal to china and keep china out of NK long enough to eliminate the fanatic.
There won’t be a reuniting of the two for their cultures language, and lifestyles are night and day now. N.Korea operates in the 50’s......the culture shock for N.Korean defectors is always evident.....terrible awakening to see you’ve been brainwashed for decades and left behind the rest of the world......and that it was the USA that was feeding you what little that could get through Fatboys hands.
An entire nation in shock flooding over the borders could not be sustained.
..........” In our lifetimes we will see NK as part of or a nation Controlled by China”........
Definatly.....no matter which way things go likely China will install a puppet government of their choosing once the dust settles....and we’ll agree.
* Does disarmament or the fall of the Kim regime automatically imply reunification with the South?
No.
* Will there be a U.S. military presence in the North?
I would hope that our presence in the South would suffice. It’s not that big a place.
* U.N. peacekeepers?
Don’t expect the Koreans to have patience with child rapists.
* Are the South Koreans prepared?
More so than we’ve ever been.
* Does China stand to gain or lose?
Gain, although I’m not sure they see it.
* Does Japan find a “united Korea” in their interest?
Japan will find the fall of the norks to be in their interests.
* What about Russia, which also shares a border and already has ongoing exchanges with the country?
More like charity than commerce.
* Does historical precedent clue us in to the possibilities? Will Korean reunification go the way of say, East and West Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall?
If the commies are thoroughly eradicated, it might.
Re: Russia
1) Apparently there’s some plans for a pipeline with the North or something.
2) Russia already utilizes (sadly in slavery like conditions) North Korean laborers for construction projects like the World Cup stadiums.
3) Russia is in the midst of demographic crisis. There are longstanding concerns over the sparsely populated Far East region of Russia being vulnerable to Chinese coming in...Ethnic Koreans already have historic presence in Russia also. North Korea or an impending refugee crisis might add to those worries.
Perhaps we can ping someone closely involved in the area...
Well, I know that S. Korean churches for years have been working on contingency plans each to “adopt” different N.Korean villages and to feed and clothe them. And one of my friends, a retired S. Korean language professor (born in N. Korea, but his family was able to escape to the South at the beginning of the Korean War), has for a number of years been working on materials for the S.Korean government on teaching North Koreans to speak and understand the Southern dialect, but you are right.
It’s harder in reunification for some than others. Another one of my friend’s parents are both from N.Korea. But they were the only part of their families to escape. Since they were part of the “landlord” class or medical professionals, it is believed that the rest of their two families were executed by the Communists during the Korean war.
Russia would likely like to gain control of the vast mineral deposits in NOKO, but they lack the economic means as well as the infrastructure to get at and take advantage of them - the NOKOs are no help there either.
Mostly Russia’s demographic crisis is self-inflicted with the Putin regime keeping to or reinstating the old Stalin standards, then there is the mussulman demographic which seems to be overwhelming much of the country. But that is why Russia, like the USSR, keeps all its best mil troops and stuff in that area ...
The only country with a stated objective of reunification is Norklandia.
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