Posted on 10/15/2017 6:12:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
For a generation, the car has been reviled by city planners, greens and not too few commuters. In the past decade, some boldly predicted the onset of “peak car” and an auto-free future which would be dominated by new developments built around transit.
Yet “peak car,” like the linked concept of “peak oil” has failed to materialize. Once the economy began to recover from the Great Recession, vehicle miles traveled, sales of cars, and particularly trucks, began to rise again, reaching a sales peak the last two year. Instead, it has been transit ridership that has stagnated, and even fallen in some places like Southern California.
Demographics — notably the rise of the millennial generation — were once seen as the key to unlocking a post-car future. Yes, younger people have been slower to buy cars than their predecessors, much as they have been slow to get full-time jobs, marry or buy homes, but more are now driving, so to speak, the car market, representing the largest share of new automobile buyers.
Convenience can’t be banned
The persistence of personal transportation has little to do with the much hyped “love affair” with the automobile but convenience and access to work. Simply put, with a few notable exceptions, Americans live in increasingly “dispersed regions.” Transit works brilliantly, as Wendell Cox and I demonstrated recently in a paper for Chapman’s Center for Demographics, to downtown San Francisco and a few other “legacy” urban centers, notably New York which accounts for a remarkable 40 percent of all transit commuting in the United States.....
(Excerpt) Read more at ocregister.com ...
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Actually less reasons to own cars than you may think. Think of it this way, a fleet of cars is distributed in the community, you pull out your phone and one comes over and you get in...ride to the supermarket. You come out, ping!, a car comes, maybe one of the handful parked at the supermarket, and you get your ride back. When it it seems the density of cars is low relative to what’s needed, some of the empty cars move in and fill the void. For longer trips, you also select the type of car you want.
The average car is moving roughly 1 hour per day (average)...with the above, that can increase to maybe 10 hours...so much, much, less cars needed and associated real estate requirements.
I cut my teeth working on cars, and I will miss the ownership society very much...also taught my kids skills that are next to impossible to learn elsewhere - but I think those days are numbered.
Can you explain Uber? How is Uber different from calling a cab? Isn’t the only difference that you use an app on a cellular phone to call a ride from Uber, as opposed to calling a cab on a telephone?
That is a huge difference. Uber uses the existing fleet of privately owned cars, thus it needs no capital invested in cars.
That's not going to happen for the simple reason that the services that provide the on-demand robocars will never have enough vehicles available to meet peak demand situations. Once people start to have to wait hours for their ride, owning their own vehicle starts to look better and better.
Will Uber show up in a F-250 to pull my boat to the lake?
I would expect that issue to be covered during the phase-in...other than something like an evacuation, even during peak times, only a relative small share of vehicles are moving at once.
...but yes, dealing with evacuations would get sporty if the number of cars are reduced by 90%. But then, generally, people are too complacent to worry about those ‘details’ until it’s too late.
“Will Uber show up in a F-250 to pull my boat to the lake?”
Probably a good job for a Teamster (LOL).
An F-250 with towing capability is likely doable. You still have the fun of hitching it up. The cost per mile of the truck if it’s only needed to move a boat locally is quite high and so it would likely be much cheaper just to use one on-demand.
In any case, difficult driving jobs will likely be the last ones to transition.
These commies can shove their “public transit” into the San Francisco Bay. The Green elites will take my pickup truck the only way they’ll get my gun: when I’m dead.
Oh, I guess in your glorious, totalitarian future, there isn't any need for us rubes out in the rural hinterlands who actually grow the food in your cities. You'll get my pickup truck when you kill me, and not before.
I'm actually glad my years on this Earth are limited. I don't want to be around when the communists take over my beautiful free state.
You live in one of the Democrat hive cities, don't you? Folks out here don't fall prey to such commie groupthink nonsense.
Exactly. Statists like BobL would take away our freedom and hand it to the Uber Collective. Nuts to that, I say. But y’all feel free to go full commie when I’m dead. Well, OK, you’ll have my gun-toting kids to deal with, but I’m sure BobL’s government thugs will kill them too, along the road to the bright commie Final Solution of a future.
Rush’s “Red Barchetta” provides a clue.
I did note that I don’t look forward to that future, but unless something is done to actually prevent it, that is what we’re in for.
And you’re right, I live near blue-Houston, and there is a bus stop several miles from my house.
It is possible some people will choose to allow their driver-less vehicle to be used by others in an Uber-like situation for a nominal return per mile locally when they are not using it.
Maintenance on electric cars is crazy cheap compared to gas powered cars. No engine oil, coolant, or transmission oil changes. Basically just tires and brake pads. Key bearings will need to be checked from time to time like when the brake pads and tires are changed are changed every 50k miles or so. Electronics will likely be its weak link with circuit boards easily changeable but not that cheap.
Articles I’ve read say it is ongoing in several states as we speak.
And when that vehicle returns from its duty to the hive with vomit on the floor, the reek of a cheap cigar, or a pet "accident" on the seat?
And will this sharing be voluntary, or forced? Will you be able to "reserve" your own vehicle for a planned trip, or will the Über-puter decide that the needs of others override your needs, and give you no say in the matter?
"From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs."
And the word "Uber" itself. Where have I heard that before? Oh, yeah, "Deutschland Über Alles" and its echoes of the Hitler years.
You can be sure that the Über-puter will want to deal with peak load issues by the forced sharing of assets. So you might find your Über-pod making a detour, and you suddenly find your quiet pod filled with screaming kids. Or on your way home from a romantic dinner date with that special someone, you might suddenly find an obnoxious or violent drunk in the back seat.
This brave new Über-world will be the final nail in the coffin of the brick'n'mortar retail store, which is why the likes of Jeff Bezos will be pushing hard for it.
And above all, our freedom to decide for ourselves where we go, when we go, and why we go will be slipping away, lost to glowing promises of health, safety, and prosperity.
John Fogerty said it as well as anyone:
"Five year plans and New Deals, wrapped in golden chains..."
I had the pleasure of attending "EVTechExpo" in Novi MI just over a month ago. What I saw makes me think it will be technology driven ( yes if the price comes down ). I think we are "this close" to an electric drivetrain revolution via the batteries getting a ton of VC money that are anywhere from 1.5 to 5X the energy density. If charging times come down to 5 to 10 minutes ( Some claim they are their ) game set match, we are then in a fully blown disruptive technology change. It could happen in the next 3 to 10 years, and I think it will be an Awe-S**t moment, the electric car will be here and no one saw it coming, it will happen that fast. I am curious as to what it will do to the financial markets, ( No dedicated Mutual Fund or ETF for EV's yet, I looked ) as I think this will happen w/in PDJT's 2 terms. I believe he is being a hard azz to China on NAFTA as they are the major battery manufacturer in the world, can't let them become number one and disrupt OH, MI, PA, IN, etc where cars and parts are made, it is not MAGA.
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