What does the future hold for the automobile?

The Orange County Register ^ | October 14, 2017 | Joel Kotkin

[2ndDivisionVet]

For a generation, the car has been reviled by city planners, greens and not too few commuters. In the past decade, some boldly predicted the onset of “peak car” and an auto-free future which would be dominated by new developments built around transit.

Yet “peak car,” like the linked concept of “peak oil” has failed to materialize. Once the economy began to recover from the Great Recession, vehicle miles traveled, sales of cars, and particularly trucks, began to rise again, reaching a sales peak the last two year. Instead, it has been transit ridership that has stagnated, and even fallen in some places like Southern California.

Demographics — notably the rise of the millennial generation — were once seen as the key to unlocking a post-car future. Yes, younger people have been slower to buy cars than their predecessors, much as they have been slow to get full-time jobs, marry or buy homes, but more are now driving, so to speak, the car market, representing the largest share of new automobile buyers.

Convenience can’t be banned

The persistence of personal transportation has little to do with the much hyped “love affair” with the automobile but convenience and access to work. Simply put, with a few notable exceptions, Americans live in increasingly “dispersed regions.” Transit works brilliantly, as Wendell Cox and I demonstrated recently in a paper for Chapman’s Center for Demographics, to downtown San Francisco and a few other “legacy” urban centers, notably New York which accounts for a remarkable 40 percent of all transit commuting in the United States.....

[InterceptPoint]

It holds BRIGHTNESS.

[buckalfa]

The future of personal transportation is indeed bright. The gas/electric debate should be market driven, not edict driven.

[yarddog]

My guess is more autonomous vehicles, but using some other system than GPS. Maybe something embedded in the roads. Built in radar/whatever to avoid accidents.

I think hybrids may win out over totally electric at least for the next 20 years.

More government regulation. It is just the way things are.

[marktwain]

Not a bad article, at all.

I forget who said this, but it is true.

Behold the United States Interstate Highway system, the greatest system of mass transit ever created!

[2ndDivisionVet]

Based somewhat on the German Autobahn.

[umgud]

They will have to pry my 572 inch Chevy V8 from my cold dead hands.

[Cicero]

No way us folks out in the country can get by without cars.

[a fool in paradise]

For a generation, the car has been reviled by city planners, greens Marxists, Marxists, and hippies.

There, I fixed it.

[a fool in paradise]

Demographics — notably the rise of the millennial generation — were once seen as the key to unlocking a post-car future. Yes, younger people have been slower to buy cars than their predecessors, much as they have been slow to get full-time jobs, marry or buy homes, but more are now driving, so to speak, the car market, representing the largest share of new automobile buyers.

Even if they aren't driving, they are using Uber like a crack addict.

[a fool in paradise]

>>The gas/electric debate should be market driven, not edict driven.

All of our newer but not better mouse traps have been forced on the public.

toilets
air-conditioners
dishwasher detergent
light bulbs
digital tv antennas
Nationalized healthcare

[BobL]

While I don’t support it, short of an EMP attack, I expect virtually all vehicles to be self-driving in 20 years. As part of that, traffic capacity will at least triple on the roads, probably even more than that (due to networking of the vehicles). People also won’t be owning their their cars, for the most part. Think of Uber...but driverless

The good thing is that the need for public transportation goes away (other than in really high density areas), and along with that going away will the hundreds of billions of dollars wasted on it every year.

[a fool in paradise]

“We can’t drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times... and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK. That’s not leadership. That’s not going to happen.” - Barack Obama

[t4texas]

Recharging electric cars no problem at all! What?

[2ndDivisionVet]

"Think of Uber...but driverless..."

Which will be great for disabled people like us.

[marktwain]

People also won’t be owning their their cars, for the most part. Think of Uber...but driverless

---

I could see the lack of car ownership in the urban cores, I suppose, but why elsewhere? Plenty of reasons to own your own car.

I suspect Uber type sharing will increase, but a huge amount? In just 20 years. I doubt it will be a majority.

[mrsmith]

Same as it ever was...

[CodeToad]

Nothing is going to change. Petro fuels still hold the best energy and fuel management over any other.

Well, at least until micro-fusion reactors are created.

[BobL]

Hang in there, bro, not much longer before it starts. 20 years to fully take over, but I suspect in 5 years it will start.

[Daniel Ramsey]

What is needed on a mass assembly scale but nithing as big as the big manufacturers is a simple vehicle, minimal electronic devices, essentially none, not even a radio. Diesel is primary engine, again simple like a forklift engine. Its 100% emp proof or can be such as using an air starter. You want a radio, buy what you want and install it yourself.