Posted on 05/19/2017 6:18:20 PM PDT by Lorianne
No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.
This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.
Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.
Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.
Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a “mass stranding of existing vehicles”. The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle.
It is a twin “death spiral” for big oil and big autos, with ugly implications for some big companies on the London Stock Exchange unless they adapt in time.
(Excerpt) Read more at financialpost.com ...
No, the pick-ups all have trailer hitches. Just tow around an Ingersoll-Rand trailer generator.
I like this, posted by Steve Davlantis on the Telegraph website, in response to the original appearance of this nonsensical piece by the Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.
Show me the electric tractor plowing a field.
Show me the electric Bulldozer and cranes.
Show me the electric train (Trains use diesel to produce electricity.. don’t split hairs with me)
Show me the freaking electric passenger jet.
Show me the electric Container ships.
Show me the electric Semi’s.
Tell me who’s going to install an electric charging point in every single parking space at every single mall, store and business.
Tell me how you’re going to generate the electricity for these things.
Show me ho you get the people in the suburbs, let alone rural areas, to work.
Show me the electric school bus.
As a field technician, show me the electric vehicle that can stay running for over 12 hrs a day, providing climate control while I’m in it, and using it to transport myself, my test gear, replacement components, et al to sites when they need them.. not on some schedule.
Show me the electric Ambulance and Life flight helicopter.
Show me the electric police car.
Show me how you make plastic without petroleum.
Show me how you make solar cells without petroleum.
Show me how you make carbon fiber without petroleum.
I could make this into a real list if I actually put some thought into it.
From the article: “While the professor’s timing may be off by a few years, there is little doubt about the general direction.”
Even if oil producers/auto manufacturers get more efficient, and Governments shift their taxes onto the electric vehicles (which the professor did not discuss), the underlying technology forecast and economics still seem likely to overturn the internal combustion engine in a big way.
The professor calls out a few numbers to trigger the shift to self driving EVs, such as: range before recharging over 200 miles, purchase price under $30,000, and later under $20,000 (which he estimates by 2022).
When purchase price and range are competitive, few would buy a new gasoline vehicle, because EVs have some compelling inherent advantages.
From the article:
- EVs are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel.
- Maintenance is essentially zero. The Tesla S has 18 moving parts, one hundred times fewer than a combustion engine car. That is why Tesla is offering infinite-mile warranties.
- EVs are four times more energy efficient than petrol or diesel cars, which lose 80 per cent of their power in heat.
- The electric drive-train is also more energy efficient, and therefore, able to be more powerful. EV models could have the acceleration and performance of a Lamborghini costing five or 10 times less to buy, and at least 10 times less to run.
Don`t forget the Lockheed plane with the nuclear reactor. They didn’t even need to shield the reactor. Just the cockpit.
Not worth wasting bandwidth on this kind of horse manure...
“Hillary Clinton has a 98 percent chance of winning the 2016 election”.
Huffington Post
(Would we lie to you?)
Tony Seba? Is he related to Mr Gruber of obamicare fame?
Hmmm... that is a LOT of batteries.
Not gonna happen in 8 years - maybe 38...
Someone is dreaming.
Havent you heard? Farts (specifically cow farts) are killing the planet. Lord God King Obama said so. You can’t eat beef anymore. He gets all the f’in wagu he wants though.
It’s good to be the King.
And no Vegan farts, ever. They’ll tell you so.
We are living in the future
I’ll tell you how I know
I read it in the paper
Fifteen years ago
We’re all driving rocket ships
And talking with our minds
And wearing turquoise jewelry
And standing in soup lines
We are standing in soup lines
>>Only people with college educations would believe this rot.
But the Emperor’s new clothes are so nice. You can get career advancement if you agree.
Stalinists lie. ALWAYS
8 years?! That is about as likely as Dems apologizing for vilifying Trump and Whites.
Gay men can’t drive. Witness Bruce Jenner.
90% of stolen vehicles are eventually recovered in Mexico. I had one recovered in zebra once.
I’ve been to a place like the professor describes. It’s called a golf course.
That is the exact figure I heard back in 1974. Sure enough, all of the $0.25 per gallon fuel disappeared abruptly. We've been using the expensive stuff ever since.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.