From the article: “While the professor’s timing may be off by a few years, there is little doubt about the general direction.”
Even if oil producers/auto manufacturers get more efficient, and Governments shift their taxes onto the electric vehicles (which the professor did not discuss), the underlying technology forecast and economics still seem likely to overturn the internal combustion engine in a big way.
The professor calls out a few numbers to trigger the shift to self driving EVs, such as: range before recharging over 200 miles, purchase price under $30,000, and later under $20,000 (which he estimates by 2022).
When purchase price and range are competitive, few would buy a new gasoline vehicle, because EVs have some compelling inherent advantages.
From the article:
- EVs are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel.
- Maintenance is essentially zero. The Tesla S has 18 moving parts, one hundred times fewer than a combustion engine car. That is why Tesla is offering infinite-mile warranties.
- EVs are four times more energy efficient than petrol or diesel cars, which lose 80 per cent of their power in heat.
- The electric drive-train is also more energy efficient, and therefore, able to be more powerful. EV models could have the acceleration and performance of a Lamborghini costing five or 10 times less to buy, and at least 10 times less to run.
And you believe all that bull, RIGHT?