Posted on 05/19/2017 6:18:20 PM PDT by Lorianne
No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.
This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.
Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.
Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.
Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a “mass stranding of existing vehicles”. The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle.
It is a twin “death spiral” for big oil and big autos, with ugly implications for some big companies on the London Stock Exchange unless they adapt in time.
(Excerpt) Read more at financialpost.com ...
They will have to pry my Subaru out of my cold, dead hands. I am not getting in a computer driven car. If they ban regular cars I guess I will just ride or drive one of the horses. I’d best get busy repairing the old buckboard.
“I just walked in from a week spent in far West Texas and it will be interesting to see how folks cover that country, much less live there, in an electric vehicle.”
What are you, stupid or something? They will obviously use extension cords!
lol
Let me guess, this study is based on information from an anonymous, high ranking official from the FBI ...
Unfortunately, he brought it back.
Not.
Gonna.
Happen.
All electric vehicles will be powered by “renewable” sun, wind, and falling water power.
For a minute there I thought Ambrose Evans-Pritchard was talking about the US .... just a stupid EU global warming pimp.
He’s saying people are going to wholesale use services like Uber and Lyft or hire a driverless vehicle by the hour instead.
Still a loada ... but he’s not saying people are going to buy new electric vehicles.
All of those electric cars will be powered by rainbows and unicorn farts.
The Russians gonna take away our cars!
Remember when, in 1960, Popular Science magazine said flying automobiles would be commonplace by 1970?
“The future ain’t what it used to be.”
“causing spasms of anxiety in the established industry” I have heard the same story since 1975 when I started my career in the Oil Industry. No one in the industry is concerned.
Total nonsense.
Suppliers of refined petroleum will just take their price down to meet competition and will push back the price of crude.
Michael Porter wrote about this...
Try a winter trip in a blizzard in Chicago. Not going to happen. But sitting in an ivory tower at Stanford with you flip flops under the desk. Headed to Stanford in two weeks to visit retired Prof. Will ask him about this twit.
That’s even crazier. Unused cars won’t disappear. But using car services every day would equal a mortgage payment. Who could afford that plus an actual mortgage?
I heard someone on the radio talking about a new electric Cadillac coming on the market. It gets a whopping 30 miles per charge.
At that rate, it will be longer than 10 years for electric vehicles to replace fossil-fuel vehicles on the open road.
I like this, posted by Steve Davlantis on the Telegraph website, in response to the original appearance of this nonsensical piece by the ever-reliable Marxist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.
Show me the electric tractor plowing a field.
Show me the electric Bulldozer and cranes.
Show me the electric train (Trains use diesel to produce electricity.. don’t split hairs with me)
Show me the freaking electric passenger jet.
Show me the electric Container ships.
Show me the electric Semi’s.
Tell me who’s going to install an electric charging point in every single parking space at every single mall, store and business.
Tell me how you’re going to generate the electricity for these things.
Show me ho you get the people in the suburbs, let alone rural areas, to work.
Show me the electric school bus.
As a field technician, show me the electric vehicle that can stay running for over 12 hrs a day, providing climate control while I’m in it, and using it to transport myself, my test gear, replacement components, et al to sites when they need them.. not on some schedule.
Show me the electric Ambulance and Life flight helicopter.
Show me the electric police car.
Show me how you make plastic without petroleum.
Show me how you make solar cells without petroleum.
Show me how you make carbon fiber without petroleum.
I could make this into a real list if I actually put some thought into it.
This article is a fantasy...
The life blood of this country rolls on 24 wheels delivering goods across the land..
I know electric vehicles have made great strides in the last 10 years, but there is no elecric vehicle that can pull 48,000 GVW of food or goods on electric power only hundreds of miles.
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