Kansas closely watched today in first special election under Trump

HotAir ^ | April 11, 2017 | Andrew Malcolm

[Trump20162020]

You don’t know Ron Estes? Most people don’t. But President Trump does.

In fact, the new president has already recorded a robocall to help Estes win big in today’s special election in Kansas’ Fourth Congressional District. And so has Vice President Mike Pence. And Speaker Paul Ryan is raising money for him. And Sen. Ted Cruz campaigned for the Estes there last night.

“Our enemy right now is complacency,” said Cruz.

What’s this all about? Well, it’s really a problem of Trump’s own making. The district’s popular congressman, Mike Pompeo, isn’t in Kansas anymore, Toto. Trump snatched him out of the House of Representatives and put him in charge of the Central Intelligence Agency.

This is the very first such special election of several across the country necessary because Trump tapped congressional Republicans for his executive team. So, it will draw extra attention as a political indicator of Trump’s heartland fortunes.

Based around Wichita, home of Koch Industries, the Fourth should be a safe seat for Republicans, having elected only one Democrat in 50 years. But special elections typically have low turnouts, a tempting sight for challengers in districts long held by an over-confident party. It’s a holiday week. Many of the south central Kansas district’s voters are still on spring break. And as State Treasurer, the 60-year-old Estes, not the most electric campaigner, is tied to the unpopular Gov. Sam Brownback.

So, there’s a last-minute sense of GOP concern and infusion of cash because an upset by Democrat James Thompson — or even a close call — would render a premature but telling verdict on Trump’s presidency. Thompson is a Wichita civil rights attorney known for taking on homeless legal cases. Like Estes, he was nominated by party convention, not a primary vote. Thompson has positioned himself as a Bernie Sanders supporter.

Trump captured the Fourth District by about 27 points in November. But Pompeo captured his fourth term by 31 points the same night.

Last week the Inside Elections/Roll Call changed its rating on the special Fourth’s race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

[ScottinVA]

Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts were in “danger” of losing their elections in KS back in 2014 as well.

They both won handily.

[marktwain]

“unpopular Gov. Sam Brownback”

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Huh? Since when is Governor Brownback unpopular?

[grania]

These races might well be a blessing in disguise. HOR Republicans totally unmasked themselves. his time they didn't simply vote to repeal Obamacare and take it from there. We now know, for sure, that their being on our side was nothing but campaign rhetoric. To vote to "repeal" was just fine when they knew Obama wouldn't sign it. We suspected what they were when they put Ryan in as Speaker a second time.

If the 'pubs lose two or three seats, it just might increase the clout of us Deplorables. Message sent (and this includes to President Trump and the way too many non-conservatives on his team): We gave you the rope you need, with beyond expectations victories for Trump and in the US Senate/HOR. You can either use it to save the nation or hang yourselves.

If the Obamacare mandate isn't repealed and competition restored to health care, if the DACA process isn't ended (there's been plenty of time for holdovers), if EVERIFY doesn't become the law of the land, if The Wall isn't built at first in the most highly impacted areas, if you don't "Drain the Swamp" instead of inviting some of its creatures into the WH, if you don't set up a dialogue with Russia to disintegrate ISIS etc, if you don't INCREASE deportation of invaders, if you don't recognize that Deplorables and the Freedom Caucus are not whom you should be turning from, you're not going to generate the enthusiasm needed to win elections.

grrr.....end of rant

[JLAGRAYFOX]

We shall see the outcome in the next few hours. The Republicans will hold the seat with ease!!! If I were the Democrat Party...I would not be worrying about winning a couple of “House” seats....I would be frightened to death, that the 2018 Mid-Term election is coming up fast & furious.

Unless the Democrat Party changes its tune and moves to the right politically,...they will lose ten-twelve Senate seats and fifteen-twenty House seats in the 2018 Mid-Terms!!! Those loss numbers effectively kill the Democrat Party for many years to come!!!

[lacrew]

“Huh? Since when is Governor Brownback unpopular?”

Just about everyday in the paper, I read that he’s unpopular...unpopular with unions and government employees...oh, and newspaper writers.

[pgkdan]

We now know, for sure, that their being on our side was nothing but campaign rhetoric.

And a fund raising tactic. These s.o.b.'s probably raised more money on the promise of repealing obmacare than any other issue in the history of the party.

[MrEdd]

And he is really really unpopular in New York and Chicago.

[FourtySeven]

Estes will win by a margin of 21 points.

[Liz]

NOT THE FIRST SINCE TRUMP---Democrats Flipped Zero Seats in Four Recent Blue State Special Elections

This latest Democrat slaughter occurred after DNC newbie Perez bragged Democrats would show that their resistance to Trump could be translated into electoral victories.

To add insult to injury, the Minnesota, Connecticut, Virginia Democrat losses are the states Hillary (cough) "won" in the 2016 presidential election.

(cue hysterical laugh machine)

===========================================

2016 election map---Democrats are learning to swim underwater.

==================================================

(HAT TIP DEROY MURDOCK NYPOST 12/26/16)

EXCERPT-----As President Obama concludes his reign of error, his party is smaller, weaker and ricketier than it has been since at least the 1940s. Behold the tremendous power that Democrats have frittered away — from January 2009 through the aftermath of Election Day — thanks to Obama and his ideas:

•Democrats surrendered the White House to political neophyte Donald J. Trump.

•US Senate seats slipped from 55 to 46, down 16 percent.

•US House seats fell from 256 to 194, down 24 percent.

•Democrats ran the Senate and House in 2009. Next year, they will control neither.

•Governorships slid from 28 to 16, down 43 percent.

•State legislatures (both chambers) plunged from 27 to 14, down 48 percent.

•Trifectas (states with Democrat governors and both legislative chambers) cratered from 17 to 6, down 65 percent.

SOURCE http://nypost.com/2016/12/25/obamas-legacy-is-a-devastated-democratic-party/

[JLAGRAYFOX]

I have just finished reviewing the 2016 POTUS & Kansas state House & Senate elections, and I can assure you....the Republicans will not only hold this seat...they will politically slaughter the Democrat candidate with achieving a massive victory!!!

These naysayer, “hate America” Obama/Clinton/Democrat, scum & vermin, their media, their pundits, their pollsters lie just as they all lied to us, in 2016!!! DJT is in tight with the real American folk...across the board!!! And...yes they will turn out to support their Candidate and POTUS, Donald J. Trump!!! End of story...folks!!!

[Skywise]

The problem isn’t Trump - the problem is the GOP themselves that insist on being Democrat-lite and trying to ramrod legislation that is not conservative or helpful and obviously used to pay off lobbyists.

[Maverick68]

The election will only be important if Trump loses (according to the MSMedia)

[Dan in Wichita]

Estes will win by a margin of 21 points.

Is this a hopeful wish, or do you have some inside information indicating a landslide? :)

[spintreebob]

Where have you been? Brownback is extremely unpopular with academia and the media and the swamp. He is the governor of the Koch Brothers and that must be punished.

[ScottinVA]

“unpopular Gov. Sam Brownback”

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Huh? Since when is Governor Brownback unpopular?

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Not sure why they termed him “unpopular,” though Brownback did for a time trail the dem in the campaign for Governor in 2014.

[marktwain]

Where have you been? Brownback is extremely unpopular with academia and the media and the swamp. He is the governor of the Koch Brothers and that must be punished.

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Thanks all. Typical “unpopular in the Establishmen media”.

[FourtySeven]

Evidently a hopeful wish! Haha

But he still won so that’s good. I’m sure the drive by’s will make hay of his relatively squeaky win but there was some heavy Democrat influence in this relatively minor seat race. If the Dems could invest so heavily in every House seat race in other words they’d have a comfortable majority by now.

There wouldn’t be such interest in that seat in normal times. And there won’t be when he’s up for reelection. He should win again comfortably this November.

[Dan in Wichita]

He should win again comfortably this November.

If Trump and the GOP congress does its job, Estes will beat Thompson by at least 20 points in Nov 2018. For Thompson to come within 8 points last night was due to the unusual circumstances of a special election. Thompson actually had a shot at winning, but came up well short.