Price of .22 Ammunition to Drop

Gun Watch ^ | 15 November, 2016 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

In the run up to the 2016 election, the price of .22 ammunition has been fluctuating up and down around 6 cents a cartridge for baseline bulk ammunition.  The reasons are clear.  Production of .22 ammunition is up by about two billion rounds a year, responding to over the top demand for the last four years.

Part of the demand is structural.  Many new gun owners and shooters have been created.  Many of the younger members were raised on first person shooter games like Doom, Golden Eye, Battlefield, and Call of Duty.

People in the industry have reported that the new generation of shooters is more likely to go through 500 rounds of .22 in a shooting session, instead of 50.  Moreover, decent .22 rifles and pistols have become relatively cheap.  A Marlin model 60 today can be had, brand new, for $150.   A Savage model 64 can be had for $116, and the Mossberg semi-auto for $109.

The Model 60 cost about $40 in 1960.  A constant dollar calculator shows that would be $322 in 2016.  So the price has dropped in half in constant dollars. Another way to look at this is the minimum wage in 1960 was a dollar an hour.  It would take a full week of 40 hours to buy the rifle.

Today, the minimum wage (federal) is $7.25.  It would take a person about half a week (21 hours) to buy a model 60 today.  That correlates pretty well with the constant dollar calculator.

There are a 100 million or more .22 rifles and pistols in the United States.  They are incredibly popular, and with very little care they last for many decades.


Some of the increased 2 billion rounds a year will go to feeding the increased structural demand.

But a considerable amount of the demand has been a bubble created by concern over gun control.  It is one of the few areas where President Barack Obama was stymied by the American people and Congress.  Hillary Clinton fed the fear with her campaign rhetoric and potential Supreme Court justices.

With the election of Donald Trump, that fear will be subsiding.  Many .22 owners have built up a stockpile of a few thousand rounds of ammunition.  That ammunition has not been shot, and it will be around for a while.

I expect the demand for .22 ammunition to drop when the reality of a Trump administration hits home.  The current protests and riots are not helping.  Nor are the conspiracy theories about a Trump assassination.

After President Trump is safely inaugurated, and starts to move his legislative agenda, demand will drop and prices will fall.

I expect bulk .22 ammunition to be available for 4 cents a round by October of 2017.

©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.

Link to Gun Watch

[Gaffer]

In my estimation the dry spell will continue until the hoarders are satisfied their stashes are big enough. We won’t see 4 or 5 cents a round GOOD 22 LRs for a while yet.

[factoryrat]

Too bad that I sold off all of my .22 ammo and rifles/pistols.

Thanks to speculators and hoarders, I decided to switch up to common military/LE weapons and ammo. The 5.56×45 is destined to replace the .22lr as most common chambered rifle round, and 9mm and .45 auto are dirt cheap and plentiful.

[Organic Panic]

Heck bricks would go on sale 5 bucks until McCain lost.

[marktwain]

I recall seeing 500 round bulk packs for as low as $8.99 into early 2008. Then in early 2012, I purchased quite a bit at $9.99 for a bulk pack of 325.

That is only 3 cents a cartridge.

Prices will come down when demand drops. Demand will drop once people are less fearfull. Trump has to get in power and start stabilizing things for that to happen. I am thinking about a year for that to happen and take effect.

[SgtHooper]

The stocks of major gun manufacturers are already coming down. Also, there has been a huge build-up of ammo since the demand was high.

Then Trump gets elected!

I would expect the prices to drop significantly as well by a year from now, if not sooner, as the manufacturers seek to reduce inventory, as well as the distributors and vendors. It should be a great time to buy!

[snooter55]

I have a 1958 Beretta in .22 . It’s my favorite plinkin’ pistol. I’ve never seen it’s rival in accuracy or performance. Just sharing .....

[mad_as_he$$]

This didn't help much - couriously.

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2016/01/dean-weingarten/cci-federal-to-increase-22-production-by-20-in-2016/

[wgmalabama]

The P22 is relatively new. Valentin day present from the wife. The Jennings verino I have has a little plastic slide as a safety. Plastic broke and well, it’s a paper weight also. Need to junk it. I swear I think I paid 40 new for it in the 1990s.

[Hardastarboard]

Hey!! I resent that! 10,000 rounds and wanting to buy another 5,000 doesn’t make me a hoarder, LOL!!!

[Gaffer]

You aren’t guilty of anything that I am not also! :0)

[moovova]

If I’m not worried about misfires or other hang-ups, or just want to waste ammo, I’ve got some 22LR Federal something or other that I shoot. When I absolutely, positively want things to go right, I use the CCI Mini-Mag copper round nose. I stopped experimenting when I hit on that.

I’m gonna have to try the CCI Tactical and the Aguila 60gr. The 60gr sounds VERY interesting. I’ll try it in my daughter’s SR22.

Thanks!

[Vermont Lt]

Don’t underestimate a movement among the liberals to arm themselves against the new “fascist” government.

[trebb]

Yepper - .22LR was designed to be inexpensive and it was actually behind the power curve of inflation for price increases before Obama managed to help it skyrocket.

[MHGinTN]

The Aguila tends to leave a casing in the action occasionally in a 1022. But it runs flawlessly in the SR22 I use.

The CCI tactical has more 'nose' before the first flair down toward the casing than the mini-mag. This feeds flawlessly in my 1022 and every other 'tool' I've tried it in. The CMMG conversion units for AR's has a feed ramp! Wish the 1022 actions had such. Just re-barreled my 1022 with a 16 inch threaded. I had cut the stock off and attached a six position shotgun stock to it years ago, so it is 'tacticool'.

Attached a sloped lower rail (they were made to attach to the angled plastic fore-ends of the AR carbines)to which I attached a laser and an angled foregrip. With a good red dot on the top rail it is an awesome home defense tool.

Some of the BX25 mags have to be 'tuned up' though. Some arrive with the metal feed slightly off center, tilted to one side. Take it apart and straighten it and they run flawlessly.

[MHGinTN]

That Federal is probably their ‘510’ offering. I bought 4000 at $.04 per round last year. I shoot it out of my GSG and use it only for range time with plinkers because it tends to have dead rounds! Shoots accurately out of my Henry lever toy though. My garage floor is littered with copper from my indoor range for .22 shooting. Utilized rubber mulch for bullet traps and backstop.

[marktwain]

I have had good luck with the Federal bulk .22.

[MHGinTN]

Federal’s copper coated bulk packs are of good quality. Burned thousands and thousands of them. Carrying a 550 box in my range bag infact.

[School of Rational Thought]

let me know when 9mm hits the 6 cents mark

[Titan Magroyne]

On Veterans Day, I dropped by my local gun dealer’s to leave discount cards for his veteran customers. He said business had really dropped off since the election, only 3 days before.

I’d do my utmost to help keep the fellow in business, but I’m struggling after 8 years of the world’s best gun salesman and his health care penalties.

[moovova]

Whoa...that’s some heavy-duty modifications on your 1022. I’ve kept mine simple (lack of knowledge)...some Volquartsen innards, Tech Sights. Still thinking about adding a Hogue overmolded stock.

Thanks for the tip on the BX25 mags. I bought a couple during one of the “magazine scares” but haven’t used them yet. I’ll know what to look for if they act up.