Posted on 10/29/2016 12:22:49 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
"Conflicted."
That's the word political scientist Helmut Norpoth used to describe his current lot in life, one that finds his professional credibility intertwined with a politician who appears to have less and less of it: Donald J. Trump.
With mind-boggling confidence, Norpoth's "Primary Model," his heretofore successful election forecast system, projects Trump to win the presidential election in less than two weeks. The model puts the odds of this above 87 percent.
And despite a blizzard of public polls to the contrary, Norpoth isn't hedging his bet. Instead, with invocations of "Dewey Beats Truman," he's calling into question the consensus of survey research that shows Hillary Clinton on the glide path to 270 electoral votes.
Norpoth's contrarianism comes with the perks of publicity.
At the moment, his results are being regularly heralded by an adoring audience on the right.
“I have never gotten anywhere near (this) attention for my other forecasts,” Norpoth told CNBC.com in a telephone interview this week. He added that if given the choice between “a forecast that is right and gives you almost no publicity (and) a forecast that turns out to be wrong in the end that gets a lot of notoriety, I would certainly take the latter.”
But what is the cost of riding this tiger? For some, very little, but for a respected academic like Norpoth there's certainly a risk. And some of his colleagues are already preparing the post-election woodshed for his comeuppance. In January, Norpoth is scheduled to be part of a panel discussion at the Southern Political Science Association meeting in New Orleans...
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
Attention either way huh?
cnbc on the clinton payroll too, huh?
His ISN’T the only predictor of Donald winning. Daybreak is almost plus 3 Trump and IBD/Rasmussen and one or two others have shown him leading at one point or another in the past week.
The msm is going to be defeated and I will love watching it while I drink my Black Label and eat my five meat pizza :)
Hey cuz. Sounds yummy except i’m not allowed. No ravioli, lasagna or anything heavy with cheese. No sausage either.
ouch. But you do what you gotta do to stay healthy.
I SHOULD NOT be touching it because of my weight, but I’m weak willed :)
Hope you’re doing well bro.
Ray Fair’s model worked until it didn’t (2012). But it has had a good track record as well, and it is also predicting a Trump win.
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0527-fair-election-prediction-20150527-story.html
I think we’re heading for a Schadenfreude hangover. This has been just too delightful to not get punished later on.
Hillary is probably on a bender. We know she’s going to have a hangover no matter what comes of this. Serious damage has been done. She has to kill brain cells with alcohol.
What has Obama had to say? How about AG Lynch? I haven’t come across any reports on the reactions or statements from top level whitehouse peeps.
Maybe the new information is devastating in such a way that the nature of it demanded release before the election.
Maybe it’s a cynical ploy and Hillary is going to be immediately exonerated.
What if it’s real espionage? We forget that the email investigation went beyond Hillary and involved her Lawyers and her aides and other State Department personal. Huma herself could be the trouble and Hillary is just ancillary.
How about the DNC staffer murdered, Seth Rich?
Are arrests imminent or is it just going to end up an open ended investigation that will die after the election — either because Hillary wins or Obama pardons.
Sunday morning talk show thread is going to set records this Sunday.
Pay attention who’s out there as a surrogate for Clinton. I expect we may see some of the reliable DNC liars. Maybe they’ll trot out Susan Estrich to pitch lies and confusion.
Discovered last week a fondness for single malt meself
Despite all the yacking and the talking heads I doubt we find out even 10% of what is going on behind the scenes in DC.
It must be total chaos there.
CNBC is supposed to be a financial site but they have been one of the worst when it comes to posting pro-HRC Articles. Will never turn them on or visit their site ever again.
Why Black Label? We live in the golden age of beer. Seek out a good local craft brewery and support it. Don't settle.
The "nbc" part of the name is the giveaway.
“We are confident that with our Democrat oversample of 25%, Hillary will win by 2%” -MSM polling group.
Drudge says Huma Abedin is in hiding. Is she In Pakistan with her family?
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