Posted on 10/26/2016 11:20:39 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Earlier this morning, we ran a feature encouraging Democrats not to count their presidential chickens before they hatch—drawing on recent history, including Brexit and this year’s Republican primary—and it appears our timing couldn’t have been better. (Or worse, depending on how you look at it.) Recent polls from swing states are somehow indicating that Donald J. Trump, candidate for president, is making a comeback. Here’s a snapshot of what might be a legitimate comeback, with a nod to Real Clear Politics and their thorough poll aggregation:
Florida
A Bloomberg poll released today has Trump leading by two points.
Nevada
A Remington Review poll, released yesterday, puts Trump up three points.
Ohio
The last five polls, from Remington, Suffolk, Quinnipiac, CNN/ORC, and NBC/WSJ/Marist, have Trump either leading or tied.
Arizona
A Monmouth poll conducted from Friday to Monday puts Trump up one point.
Colorado
A Remington poll has Clinton up a mere two points, which, when you consider how Trump’s unique brand of nativist supporters have been underestimated in GOP primary polling, and a similar brand of UK voter was similarly dismissed before the Brexit voting, this is scary.
There are also too-narrow leads for Clinton in “stronghold” states like Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. It’s hard to know exactly why this is happening. It’s not like Trump has been any more presidential in his behavior over the past two weeks. The news of Obamacare premium spikes may play into the number, but that report was released Monday, so it shouldn’t have affected most of these polls, which were taken over the weekend. (In fact, if you’re a Dem, it’s an especially terrible harbinger that this “comeback” happened before that piece of bad news.)
Now, it’s not all doom and gloom—Clinton is still the clubhouse leader (Nate Silver has her at 85% to win), and she could actually lose the first four states above and still win the election, provided she holds onto Virginia. Plus, there are a few traditionally red states like North Carolina that look like they may go blue in November.
That being said, this is no slam dunk, and the really annoying thing is that for people who fear a Trump presidency, there will be no premature relief—the specter of his potential ascent to the highest office in the land will haunt us at least until election day.
The word, “comeback” implies he was behind. He’s always been ahead but it hasn’t been reported correctly — on purpose.
I think the story is that with Election Day looming, pollsters are thinking about their legacy and credibility for future elections so are morphing toward the truth. That way, two and four years from now people will say, “Blah Blah Polling Group correctly predicted the Trump win in 2016.
I’m suspicious. Are they forced to admit this due to early voting trending Trump’s way?
Megyn Kelly basically told Newt she was focusing her attention to the FOX poll and wouldn’t be swayed by the actual voting results that disprove her illogical points.
My best estimate is that Trump is ahead in legal votes in more than enough states to win the election. Very clearly, Hillary is ahead in potential votes, once illegals, felons, fictional voters, and the dead are counted.
It’s our job on Election Day to make it too hard for Hillary’s fraudulent voters to cast ballots by volunteering as poll watchers. It’s our job on Election Day to make sure enough patriots vote that Hillary cannot get enough illegal ballots into the tally, whether directly or through hacking, to steal the election. It’s our job on Election Day to make sure legal voters are not intimidated by Hillary’s thugs.
Because America’s enemies are crooks, we have a big job in just under two weeks.
The panic is setting in.
Its gotta be double digits or it will be stolen by fraud
The polls cannot be so close or it gives no grounds for serious investigations of fraud and announces that to the fraudsters
who don’t speak Russian
Um, he was never out of it...
He never went away. Only a few on this board seemed to think so.
“It’s hard to know exactly why this is happening.”
Only if you are a brain-dead leftie. What is happening is the fakester pollsters have to narrow their polls now to move them closer to reality, otherwise they will have egg on their faces when the race is over.
By me as well.
But if Trump is ahead in the RCP come election day I will eat my Encyclopedia Britannica in one setting. I don't expect it will happen even if we have a Trump landslide.
And this will be because I actually expect some number of polls will make the "maximum sacrifice" by continuing their bias right up and through the election.
But most, as you note, will make the necessary adjustments to allow them to "see an unexpected late move to Trump" to try (a fail) to rescue their reputations.
Whatever ...
To hell with the polls! To hell with Big Media!!!
Vote for TRUMP/PENCE. Get your friends, families, and neighbors out to vote for TRUMP/PENCE.
Hildebeeste ==> America is destroyed.
Trump ==> America has a fighting chance ... Maybe even a good chance of survival.
Exactly ... I’ll watch and see where this thread goes, but no .. Trump is not making a come back ... the scales are falling from the eyes of Americans.
He was, but I would assume the pollsters are all trying to avoid the mistake they made last time overestimating Romney, and so are using the Obama minority-heavy, youth-heavy turnout model this time. That is human nature on the pollsters’ part. But since Hillary’s not black and both candidates are old, it seems likely turnout will follow a different pattern this year. Trump is obviously hoping for a Brexit twist in the turnout. Hillary is hoping that whether or not women turnout is the same, more of them vote for her than did Obambam.
I think Obama had a pretty good method of getting his base to turnout, and Romney didn't. So, I'm not sure if the polls were really all that wrong, but it was a matter of performance when it counted.
Hard to say if Hillary has the same ability on generating turnout- We know Trump is going to get the turnout.
Wouldn’t have taken the time to read the article had I realized it was written by a pro-hillary idiot.
That’s what I think...
... but I fear massive voter fraud.
But it shows that the left isn’t as confident as they claim, right?
Maybe.
Or the pollsters realize Hillary is doomed and they are now actually releasing true data. After all, who wants to be wrong.
I had less-than-zero enthusiasm for Willard The Rat Romney.
I have great enthusiasm for Donald The Lion Trump.
I never had to hold my nose so tightly as I did to vote for Romney.
Now the scolds who admonished me to do so refuse to hold their noses to vote for Trump.
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