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Pennsylvania disappointing again?
AOL.com, Business Insider ^ | 07/28/2016 | ALLAN SMITH

Posted on 07/28/2016 2:11:37 PM PDT by ctpsb

The Suffolk University poll showed Clinton with a 9-point lead over Trump in the Keystone State as the Democratic National Convention takes place in Philadelphia. When Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are included, Clinton's lead remains 9 points.

(Excerpt) Read more at aol.com ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2016dncconvention; 2016polls; 2016swingstates; clinton; pennsylvania; suffolk; trump; trumppa
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Just wanted everyone's thoughts. It seems like the polls have been going in Trump's direction except the last two in PA (this and NBC/WSJ/Marist).

Hope Pennsylvania's not going democrat again.

1 posted on 07/28/2016 2:11:37 PM PDT by ctpsb
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To: ctpsb

They only polled 500 people. A very small sample.


2 posted on 07/28/2016 2:12:42 PM PDT by mrs9x
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To: ctpsb

Live by the polls, die by the polls!!


3 posted on 07/28/2016 2:14:23 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: ctpsb
Drill down into the poll. Small sample (500), asked for YOUNGEST voter in the household, didn't even attempt to screen for registered voters, much less likely voters.

Still, almost 100% of respondents (97.6%) say they are going to vote.

4 posted on 07/28/2016 2:14:43 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (ObaMao: Fake America, Fake Messiah, Fake Black man. How many fakes can you fit into one Zer0?)
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To: ctpsb

Philly has over 100% turnout, New Black Panthers stand at polls with clubs and weapons and nothing, nothing happens.

How can the Democrats not win in PA?


5 posted on 07/28/2016 2:15:20 PM PDT by Kenny
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To: ctpsb

Suffolk is in the heart of Communist Boston. Fuhgeddaboutit.


6 posted on 07/28/2016 2:15:23 PM PDT by major-pelham
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To: ctpsb

They asked for the youngest member of the household.


7 posted on 07/28/2016 2:15:40 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: ctpsb

Suffolk polls are garbage. Shows McGinty with a wide lead over Sen. Toomey. Doesn’t jibe with reality.


8 posted on 07/28/2016 2:15:57 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: ctpsb
It's AOL and a crap sampling.

They are using this so that it when they do an "average" it maintains the horse race so dollars will be spend on ads and marketing.

You'll forget about it in a day or two, but it will remain in the average trend for weeks. It's just how the long con works.

9 posted on 07/28/2016 2:16:23 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (HTTP 500 - Internal Server Error)
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To: ctpsb

internals are flaky. sample d+9. moderates +15 over conservative. Should be close +/- 1 or 2 Blacks also oversampled 13% s/b about 10%. sample was bad.


10 posted on 07/28/2016 2:17:07 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: ctpsb

During the 2012 election, Suffolk stopped polling Virginia in mid October because they said that Romney was going to win the state. Obama won by 5%. That should tell you all you need to know about Suffolk.

Pay no attention to this poll. Keep your eye out for the Battleground counties poll. Last one had Luzerne County going to Trump by 23. Then go back and look at the 2012 and 2008 elections in PA. The Luzerne results are almost identical to the state results. This is just more gaslighting by the media.


11 posted on 07/28/2016 2:18:42 PM PDT by usafa92 (Trump 2016 - Destroying the GOPe while Making America Great Again)
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To: ctpsb

Looks to be more of a push poll due to the methodology. Will call it an outlier.


12 posted on 07/28/2016 2:19:44 PM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

That could be 35.


13 posted on 07/28/2016 2:20:48 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Vigilanteman

YOUNGEST? why? they’re 80 20 for dems.

We can win without PA. But of course would like to take it.

I used to say I was definitely voting when I was younger. I didn’t. Hard to trust kids.

And I’ve been doing YouGov polls and of course answering the questions as a conservative would.

Stopped getting polls from them. Probbly just a coincidence. Still odd.


14 posted on 07/28/2016 2:22:15 PM PDT by dp0622 (The only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: ctpsb
Hope Pennsylvania's not going democrat again.

Again? Pennsylvania hasn't been a red state since 1988.

15 posted on 07/28/2016 2:25:24 PM PDT by Drew68
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To: ctpsb

It’s the liberal pollster Suffolk that is suspect.


16 posted on 07/28/2016 2:26:16 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: ctpsb

Forget the number polled:

1) it’s +4 D over 2012 (does ANYONE think Cankles will do as well as Zero in PA?)
2) it’s +3 black (10% of pop vs 13% polled)
3) here is the kicker: like the ABC poll last week it asked for the “youngest voter in the home” (I.e., the LEAST likely voter).
4) This poll was off by 3 in its 2012 final-—but I guarantee they weren’t using a goofy “youngest voter” sample then.


17 posted on 07/28/2016 2:27:02 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Berlin_Freeper
It could also be 60. Or 18. Or 80.

The point is that a truly random sample would have a random number generator with ages generated according to their frequency in the population and ask for people with the age closest to the random number thus generated with each call.

18 posted on 07/28/2016 2:30:10 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (ObaMao: Fake America, Fake Messiah, Fake Black man. How many fakes can you fit into one Zer0?)
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To: BigEdLB

Report last week that Trump way up in Ottawa Co. OH-—but no numbers. Heard anything?


19 posted on 07/28/2016 2:31:30 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: ctpsb

The good news is that those who are involved in the coal industry will go Trump.


20 posted on 07/28/2016 2:32:03 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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