The Other Shoe Will Drop -- My Theory is no GOP convention, Three Party Election

This sudden and orchestrated list of events -- Cruz drops out, Kasich drops out, Romney not to attend GOP Convention, Bush family not to attend -- and others beyond -- suggests to this observer that the other shoe is about to drop.

We must be careful at Free Republic to realize that a prevailing mood here is not necessarily an indication of a strong prevailing mood elsewhere in American political culture. It might be at best what one third of one half are thinking, in other words, what one-sixth of the voters accept to be orthodox self-evident truth.

The fact that you and I believe something does not make it true or even feasible that many of the other five-sixths of the political spectrum accept or believe it.

So it would not surprise me, and it should not surprise you, if the following scenario or something like it unfolds.

First, the Republican Party will announce that the Cleveland convention is no longer happening. They will say that they accept the nomination of Donald Trump to run as president is inevitable but that he cannot have the endorsement of the Republican Party. That would no doubt lead to numerous large legal battles fought mainly at the state level. But as a political fait accompli, if the party mechanism does not move into the convention centre, then it is basically de facto a Donald Trump Independent for President convention with whatever supporters of his decide to show up. What they do and decide will then determine how the Trump campaign proceeds although if any wind of this reaches the Trump forces before mid- to late May, clearly there are legal problems they need to investigate on a number of levels.

One of those will be, how does Donald Trump get his name on ballots? How is he to be styled on the ballots?

Meanwhile, I would expect the Republican Party to announce a new and different convention location, wherein delegates appointed by a process that they fully control would choose a nominee. That person would then go onto the ballot as the Republican depending on the outcome of any legal challenges brought by Donald Trump.

One really has to wonder if, confronted with this situation, Donald Trump would want to go before the voters as a Republican anyway.

This process would create more or less the same dynamics as the 1992 election. There would be a maverick iconoclast (like Perot), a relatively unpopular Republican establishment candidate, and a Clinton. But of course, not the charismatic and seductive one, but the old one with baggage and huge question marks (in the 20-20 hindsight that we all have, of course, the first one had those same attributes, except not so many people knew).

So would that be a cakewalk for Hillary Clinton? Probably not. Both of her opponents would easily be able to rebut her assertions that the Republican process was anti-democratic. Bernie Sanders proves that point, more people are actually voting for him than for Hillary in most states so far. But he has no path to the nomination either.

Do you folks think this could happen? I think the tells are pretty obvious. Or will the party go through the motions of lukewarm support but spring a third option after the convention on the grounds that Trump is trailing badly in the polls? (if that happens)

Of course, one thing would forestall all of this -- Ted Cruz as running mate. There's no way the GOP would roll the dice against 70% of the primary voters, they might try it against 45%.

The citizens of the world globalists are mad as heck. They have had their way with America for a long time now. They do not like being disobeyed and don’t even believe in the US constitution or American sovereignty anymore.

They are a minority of elitists that have been running roughshod over the majority of Americans. They hate Trump and they hate Americans. Who knows what they will do in their rage. They are dangerous in my opinion.

You raised a point worth exploring, sorry I missed that one. I think that my scenario covers a Republican convention eventually, just not the one currently being planned. Either that, or the Trump-nominating meeting goes ahead as a sort of Republican convention without a policy session binding the party, just Trump’s delegates saying what they think policy should be, then later there is a second meeting and the rest of the party picks both a platform and a nominee.

I have heard nothing today that makes me think I am out of touch with the reality of this situation although how they all square the circle could look a lot different.

It all depends on what Trump does and says between now and the convention. If he sticks to this line of my way or the highway, then the GOP establishment are going to say “you’re on,” and take the highway. Nobody should imagine that Trump has the gravitas or the mandate to dictate terms of a party platform that could be miles different from what more than half of the members of that party would support.

However, Trump is obviously a smart man and in to win. It seems almost inevitable to me that he will cut a deal, not enough change in focus to alienate his supporters, but enough to satisfy the critics and bring them into the fold.

Then my scenario evaporates. But we need to be realistic that the scenario is far from impossible if Donald Trump tries to assert total control of a party that he has only recently joined. Trump is a singularity to be certain, but he is not Ronald Reagan. It was true what I heard on CNN earlier, Trump needs all the voters that supported Mitt Romney plus perhaps five million new ones (minus any disaffected voters he has already brought in, but I suspect that to be less than a million). There are gaping holes in the scenario on both counts — all of Mitt’s votes? work to be done there, and five million new or crossover votes? Again, a big task ahead on that.

Not saying it can’t be done. It’s going to take a stupendous blend of inspirational messaging and authentic adherence to basic principles. Any hint that Trump would govern without regard for the constitution, and he might as well quit today. Too many will call him, it would be like going all in after six calls with a 7-4 offsuit. You can only bluff people who think they might lose, not people who can see they are ahead.

And you bring up another possibility. My take on all this is the simple fact that Trump has had more votes during this primary cycle thatn ANY OTHER REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE in modern history. And we still have nine states to go.

If the GOPe doesn't take notice of that then they are toast. I would predict that Trump would get more votes in the November election just from the Republican masses than Romney, McCain, or Dole did regardless what Romney, McCain or Dole asked them to do or not to do.

And then you have all the disenfranchised Democrats who wanted Sanders but a rigged election kept them out and all the Independents who hate Hillary.

What I do find interesting is the GOPe was so worried about Trump running as a third party they asked him to pledge his support. Now when he is swamping them the are talking about leaving. Funny.

Go Trump!!

Supporting Ted Cruz until he withdrew is one thing. It is now time for him to graciously endorse Trump. Any further resistance by Cruz will leave him without an overwhelming majority of his supporters. Same goes for Bill Kristol's idiot editorial urging a 50-state Third Party effort for a new and more "acceptable" candidate in which he confesses voting for Moral Monster Mitt Romney but just cannot bring himself to vote for Trump. No one, NO ONE, other than abortionists who voted FOR Romney has any excuse for not voting FOR Trump.

The GOP contest is over. Now, on to the main event!

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