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You raised a point worth exploring, sorry I missed that one. I think that my scenario covers a Republican convention eventually, just not the one currently being planned. Either that, or the Trump-nominating meeting goes ahead as a sort of Republican convention without a policy session binding the party, just Trump’s delegates saying what they think policy should be, then later there is a second meeting and the rest of the party picks both a platform and a nominee.

I have heard nothing today that makes me think I am out of touch with the reality of this situation although how they all square the circle could look a lot different.

It all depends on what Trump does and says between now and the convention. If he sticks to this line of my way or the highway, then the GOP establishment are going to say “you’re on,” and take the highway. Nobody should imagine that Trump has the gravitas or the mandate to dictate terms of a party platform that could be miles different from what more than half of the members of that party would support.

However, Trump is obviously a smart man and in to win. It seems almost inevitable to me that he will cut a deal, not enough change in focus to alienate his supporters, but enough to satisfy the critics and bring them into the fold.

Then my scenario evaporates. But we need to be realistic that the scenario is far from impossible if Donald Trump tries to assert total control of a party that he has only recently joined. Trump is a singularity to be certain, but he is not Ronald Reagan. It was true what I heard on CNN earlier, Trump needs all the voters that supported Mitt Romney plus perhaps five million new ones (minus any disaffected voters he has already brought in, but I suspect that to be less than a million). There are gaping holes in the scenario on both counts — all of Mitt’s votes? work to be done there, and five million new or crossover votes? Again, a big task ahead on that.

Not saying it can’t be done. It’s going to take a stupendous blend of inspirational messaging and authentic adherence to basic principles. Any hint that Trump would govern without regard for the constitution, and he might as well quit today. Too many will call him, it would be like going all in after six calls with a 7-4 offsuit. You can only bluff people who think they might lose, not people who can see they are ahead.