Posted on 04/20/2016 10:37:33 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana
I'd like to thank Jeff Head for his well written piece on a vexing situation we find ourselves in.
I am a Cruz supporter, and I understand that Trump is likely to win the nomination. If he does, I will vote for him and hope that he is a better president than I expect him to be.
But the fact remains that outside of Trump's home region, the northeast, 50+ % are inclined NOT to vote for him. Cruz in some ways is the last man standing, because he anticipated this kind of struggle and prepared for it in the ways the others didn't (Scott Walker) or couldn't (a half-dozen without financial resources or will for a long fight).
Kasich remains in the race. If Cruz concedes now, without giving up ALL his leverage for the convention by releasing the delegates, Cruz voters either stay home or vote for Kasich, anti-Trump supporters come out, and Kasich might actually win a state or two, and more than a few delegates.
To the degree that the Establishment can still influence the primaries proper, they would go full bore behind Kasich. Cruz' presence actually is a massive distraction and destabilizing influence on the Establishment, which isn't one man, but an oligarchy of factions with considerable overlap but non-identical interests.
Whether we like it or not, Liz Mairs' jab at Melania was the catalyst that pushed both sides in an area from which they cannot retreat before the convention. If Trump thought it was okay to repeat that Cruz was a p**** then, Cruz folding after words would suggest it, but not in the minds of his opponents, but his supporters.
If Cruz pulls out, and he has 600 delegates, Kasich moves up to 400+ delegates, and Rubio and unbound have a few more (with few of the unbound being Trump supporters), and Trump is STILL short of 1,237, the Establishment will still pull all the stops with even LESS reason to go with either Trump or Cruz. I think they would fail, but the damage would be greater than if Cruz stayed in.
Based on my personal definition of Establishment, which allows for close connections with Goldman Sachs (Cruz has his wife's high level employment, Trump certainly has numerous financial arrangements throughout his business empire with them and various other bad players, perhaps out of necessity in his line of work), neither Trump nor Cruz qualify as Establishment. Both are willing to break things, especially rules of decorum in their own ways. Both have the will to make enemies and fight to win.
Most of the Cruz delegates at the convention, including the ones who are bound to Trump, and almost all of the other Trump delegates are needed to ace out the bad guys on rule changes, etc. This is the time for Trump supporters to make their case for boundaries on how state conventions can pick their candidates. You might be surprised how many Cruz supporters can be won over on those kinds of reforms if well-crafted.
This process seemed old back in September, when so many were complaining that Cruz and Trump WEREN'T attacking each other. Today will seem like a long time ago two weeks after the convention. If it is like that for wonks like us, what is it for casual observers? On the other hand, if we have a Romney-style throw in the towel for Mr. Inevitable, the wounds will not heal fully. Cruz or Trump, the Republican Party is being remade. Supporters of both have to be in the mix.
Few of us blame Reagan for staying in until the end even when Ford had the thing sewn up with unbound delegates from NY and PA. Did it cost Ford the election? It was close enough (under 2%) that it might have. I know of no one here blaming Reagan for playing it to the end, and helping to remake the Republican Party in the process. It certainly set up Reagan for 1980.
In my opinion, this is not the time for Cruz to drop out. Trump has not offered Cruz a rapprochement (and likely never will), and Cruz is not convinced that he can't win it all. Cruz retains much of his support, both his and anti-Trump sentiment. If that support should go to Trump or not bother showing up, then the story will write itself.
Courtesy Ping
Cruz does not need to forfeit his delegates...he just needs to reach an accommodation with Trump.
IMHO, that is the only sure fire winning way forward.
So...get that accommodation, do not “officially” suspend or end his campaign...but ensure that Trump goes over the top at the convention.
A good way, as was posted on my thread, to do this is found at post 6:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3422900/posts?page=6#6
And 85% didn’t vote for Cruz.
“50+ % are inclined NOT to vote for him”
But under what parameters? With other GOP candidates still alive or in a General vs. Hillary?
Jeff is right.
Cruz is self-imolating beyond this point.
Ashley Cruz should pull out like a man before
he is as hated as Boehner and McConnell and Romney.
He has been exposed with rats, hookers, blackmail,
Fiorino “defenses”, and a father linked with Oswald,
after Cruz INFURIATED FReepers by voting to allow
the vote on SECRET ObamaTRADE for his globalist employers,
facilitators, and controllers.
Nice counterpoint Doc. Prepare for incoming.
If it comes to a contested convention that is the way the process works.
I remember that was the most exciting process I had ever seen.
Everyone including Cruz knew Trump was going to carry New York. What they are NOT saying, is Hilliary and Socialist Bernie Sanders got more votes than Trump did.
“Trump has not offered Cruz a rapprochement (and likely never will)”
Absolutely not true. Trump has publicly mused several times about Cruz as his VP, and Cruz has categorically and publicly rejected that option multiple times.
Yeah.
I think Cruz is obligated to try and get the nomination.
More of us think Trump us not a good representative or standard bearer for conservatism or the Republican Party than support Trump.
Therefore, let it play out.
After the nominee is determined, then whoever the losing candidate may be should support the nominee and all candidates should work for unity to present a united front against the Dem nominee.
Cruz needs money to stay in. How does he get that money after he has been mathematically?
Because most people understand there may be a second ballot. The AP headline even got that right eventually.
Problem is, Trump has done nothing to merit such consideration. He has shown nothing but ill will and bad faith toward Cruz and others who are not our enemy.
All candidates need to agree to your call for unity as soon as one actually wins.
Until then, play it out.
“That was way too early in the process to even consider. “
March 16, 2016 is way too early in the process?
/Everyone including Cruz knew Trump was going to carry New York. What they are NOT saying, is Hilliary and Socialist Bernie Sanders got more votes than Trump did. /
...and Trump has won 37% of the Republican Votes up to NY...
Hmmm!
Rich people have money but they don’t want to waste it. To be a Cruz donor now requires faith not only in a contested convention but that they can steer the course of the convention. Or they can do something like donate to other candidates for congress. That seems less risky to me.
So far Trump has won 38% of the popular vote and Cruz 28%
That includes last night with the biggest win Trump will get.
Neither of them have a claim to being the will of the people.
Contrast that to Romney in 2012 who won 52% of the popular vote and 42 of 56 contests.
Did that make me or you want Romney to represent conservatives or Republicans? No.
Point being, no one has won or earned anything yet.
When one achieves 1237, then is the time to unify with no sore loser attitude or sour grapes.
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