Posted on 04/20/2016 8:54:27 AM PDT by xzins
Most news services are reporting that Ted Cruz currently has 559 delegates after gaining zero in yesterday's New York primary. With 1237 the goal, it is clear that Ted Cruz can no longer win on the first ballot at the Republican Convention. He would need 678 delegates to reach 1237 and only 620 delegates remain. Obviously, that is impossible. That would be 109% of what remains, and that is a mathematical impossibility.
A good guess of how many additional delegates Cruz will gain between now and June 8 is 209. That would give him a total of 768 going into the convention. He would be 469 delegates short of 1237 on the first ballot.
469 delegates is an insurmountable number on the first ballot. And while it is an educated estimate, it is close enough that a fair observer will recognize that Cruz will be far below the needed number of delegates to make any kind of run whatsoever on the first ballot.
But, here's the kicker, and many are not considering it as they think about an open convention and Cruz perhaps emerging victorious on some subsequent ballot.
Cruz would STILL need those 469 delegates to close the gap to reach 1237 on the 2nd ballot. Even worse is that a huge percentage of his bound delegates can desert him on the second ballot. That means it is very likely that he begins needing 600 or more delegates to reach the magic 1237 on even the 2nd ballot.
It is true that in some smart card playing that Cruz has gained a few delegates here and a few delegates there in this state or that state. But, as you reflect on these numbers, it also comes to mind that it was generally a dozen or less, and it was only in a few instances. If it added up even to 200, it would still leave Ted Cruz far short of the kind of numbers he would need.
Former U.S. representative Pete Hoekstra, a John Kasich supporter and a member of the establishment, was reluctant to say it, but last night he acknowledged that John Kasich would be a natural running mate for Donald Trump. It was a bit of candor. It was logical given the state of the race.
It is the same for Ted Cruz. Even a 2nd ballot victory is a mathematically illogical objective for Ted Cruz. This is especially true given that the establishment does not want him or any other outsider winning the nomination. Cruz will fail on the 2nd ballot is what the numbers say. And with the establishment then exercising their power in the 3rd round, there is little likelihood that Cruz will emerge.
It is logical for Cruz to side with Trump NOW and lock in the vice presidency.
He is 44 years old, and he'll be just 52 at the oldest when he will be the heralded front runner for the presidency in 2020 or 2024.
Those who want his leadership and his principles in the driver's seat must see that that is not a dead dream. It is a delayed dream. It is entirely logical for Ted Cruz to join that very short list of famous men who for all history will have been vice presidents of the United States of America.
The Rockefeller Republican crew are, if anything, survivalists. The overwhelming majority of R primary voters want the guy with the most votes to get the nomination. The special people will never fly in the face of that. They do not have the balls.
Additionally, Trumps favorable/unfavorables will get better each time he speaks without saying Lying Ted, Menstrual Megyn or Low Energy Jeb.
Trump will roll from here. Cruz should shut it down. Kasich should join the democrat party and be done with it.
Trump said China has committed the greatest economic theft in history what they've done to us and it is politicians like Cruz that helped China do it. Trump knows what China is doing and how to stop them. It's our only chance to stop the economic decline.
$365,694,500,000: U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit With China Hit Record in 2015
Why is only Trump mentioning China and the wall to block the illegals’ invasion of the USA?
Yup that’s why he wrote on op Ed with PaulRyan in favor of the TPP
Excellent post, Nifster. I hadn’t thought of Ron Paul, but I can see what might happen if he gets dismissed as a fringe agitator after 2016.
Some of us so who this guy was long ago as his shenanigans with TPA and the corker bill showed.
Then you better rethink. Ted will be crushed by Clinton
I think he’s been seeing the math for at least as long as we have. He’s not a stupid man.
All that time he’s been playing to win via an open convention. That explains all his actions. Just trying to win.
But even that is now mathematically unlikely.
A union with Trump NOW is his best bet. He could unite the party now, but I think the convention will be too late.
He has a small window NOW.
Again, he’s a doctrinaire conservative. Purist conservatives believe in the ‘free trade’ fantasy.
But, I’ll be honest with you. His positions are the closest to Trump’s of all other candidates who have run.
But Trump/Cruz will not be.
The GOPe creeps will have what they want on the 2nd ballot unless the rules are changed beforehand to untie all the delegates, most of whom were selected by local gopes. The will vote for the GOPe selection however derived and whomever it may be if/when they are not tied to voting for a particular candidate. Untied they will vote overwhelmingly for Gabriel Schmidt of Squeaksburg Iowa if that is the GOPe selection.
Cruz’s arrogance is going to be his undoing. He must realize he has no chance to win. He should be 911’ing Trump for a deal. I think Cruz will not do it and be left with nothing in the end.
That's because he hasn't been sued for his eligibility by the right people yet.
Wait until the Democrats challenge him and watch the swarm of "open minded" judges crawl out of the woodwork clamoring to hear the case.
I think it’s more logical that Kasich would be the VP rather than Cruz for several reasons. While it’s obvious that the Establishment’s influence has greatly decreased, they need to be thrown a bone and Kasich as VP could placate them enough, ala Bush in 1980. Further, Kasich would help in Ohio, a swing state.
As a Cruz supporter I’d rather he stay in the senate. First, he could be helpful there in keeping a President Trump in line with conservative principles, something he couldn’t do as VP. Second, if Trump reverts to his old liberal/moderate ways he’d be able to challenge him in 2020.
Besides 8 years of attending funerals is a long time to wait to be next in line.
If your state hasn’t voted you might as well stay home because your vote won’t count anyway. Unless it’s a vote for Trump of course. Trump’s won it fair and square. He’s got the most delegates. It doesn’t matter what the rules are. He has the most delegates and if he gets less than the total needed he should win anyway. According to his speechh he helped clean up after the 7 11 attack did you know? Anyone got a picture of that?
Cruz is not even an American but was born in Canada. It’s amazing to see Rafael fool so many conservatives and Americans and Republicans into supporting him a Canadian(”I’m now a Texan”). How anybody could fall for Cruz’s cheap con act is beyond me. Now the GOpe wants Cruz as their candidate to block who Americans choose. The gope is against American interests.
Trump was the one talking about trade and borders and doing well. Cruz is a late comer to the scene and has dropped them recently
Ted is a career government employee acting lions a petulant child
If you can't understand the reason why his "non supporters" don't like him it's because you don't want to.
The delegates Cruz acquired in Colorado and Wyoming were obtained not by the results of an open primary election or caucus, but by the election of delegates by GOP party activists who favor your candidate Cruz at the party conventions of the two states in question.
Anyone not blinded to supporting Ted Cruz with the "by any means necessary" mindset can see the difference in how those delegates were obtained.
You can keep making your brave face if you want, but if you don't already know, or do know but won't admit it, you'll soon find out that those 48 delegates Cruz obtained at those two conventions where the people of Colorado and Wyoming didn't get to cast their vote for the candidate of their choice will end up being the most costly delegates in election history.
[[He would need 678 delegates to reach 1237 and only 620 delegates remain. Obviously, that is impossible.]]
True- but theoretically, he could get to say within 50 of 1237 and trump could be down 150
I wonder if that were to by some miracle happen if trump and his supporters would be saying “He’s closer than we are, so let him have it”?
No, Cruz will have nothing to do with a losing campaign like donnies. As well, even if donnie is elected the administration will have an absolute disastrous term. The world leaders hate donnie, the congress will hate him, business leaders hate him, bankers hate him and of course democrats hate him.
His term will look like Obamas only by a white man that claims to be a conservative.
Trump/Palin is unlikely. Palin not likely to accept, Trump not likely to offer.
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