The silence of Cruzbots on the morning after the NY primary.
Ahhhhhh its so nice!
Posted on 04/20/2016 8:54:27 AM PDT by xzins
Most news services are reporting that Ted Cruz currently has 559 delegates after gaining zero in yesterday's New York primary. With 1237 the goal, it is clear that Ted Cruz can no longer win on the first ballot at the Republican Convention. He would need 678 delegates to reach 1237 and only 620 delegates remain. Obviously, that is impossible. That would be 109% of what remains, and that is a mathematical impossibility.
A good guess of how many additional delegates Cruz will gain between now and June 8 is 209. That would give him a total of 768 going into the convention. He would be 469 delegates short of 1237 on the first ballot.
469 delegates is an insurmountable number on the first ballot. And while it is an educated estimate, it is close enough that a fair observer will recognize that Cruz will be far below the needed number of delegates to make any kind of run whatsoever on the first ballot.
But, here's the kicker, and many are not considering it as they think about an open convention and Cruz perhaps emerging victorious on some subsequent ballot.
Cruz would STILL need those 469 delegates to close the gap to reach 1237 on the 2nd ballot. Even worse is that a huge percentage of his bound delegates can desert him on the second ballot. That means it is very likely that he begins needing 600 or more delegates to reach the magic 1237 on even the 2nd ballot.
It is true that in some smart card playing that Cruz has gained a few delegates here and a few delegates there in this state or that state. But, as you reflect on these numbers, it also comes to mind that it was generally a dozen or less, and it was only in a few instances. If it added up even to 200, it would still leave Ted Cruz far short of the kind of numbers he would need.
Former U.S. representative Pete Hoekstra, a John Kasich supporter and a member of the establishment, was reluctant to say it, but last night he acknowledged that John Kasich would be a natural running mate for Donald Trump. It was a bit of candor. It was logical given the state of the race.
It is the same for Ted Cruz. Even a 2nd ballot victory is a mathematically illogical objective for Ted Cruz. This is especially true given that the establishment does not want him or any other outsider winning the nomination. Cruz will fail on the 2nd ballot is what the numbers say. And with the establishment then exercising their power in the 3rd round, there is little likelihood that Cruz will emerge.
It is logical for Cruz to side with Trump NOW and lock in the vice presidency.
He is 44 years old, and he'll be just 52 at the oldest when he will be the heralded front runner for the presidency in 2020 or 2024.
Those who want his leadership and his principles in the driver's seat must see that that is not a dead dream. It is a delayed dream. It is entirely logical for Ted Cruz to join that very short list of famous men who for all history will have been vice presidents of the United States of America.
I used to, but I don’t anymore.
Cruz has become someone who I cannot vote for.
It is logical for Cruz to side with Trump NOW and lock in the vice presidency.
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Ridiculous on so many levels.
1. Cruz would never take the veep position.
2. Trump would never offer it.
3. Trump would never align himself with the GOP-e or any of their boys.
4. Etc.
Since Obama’s selection, “natural born” covers just anyone on earth legally.
As pointed out by many, this is not a matter for federal courts. Elections in the USA are held state by state.
So, prior to an election, if this is not already in the hands of SCOTUS for some ruling on the meaning of ‘natural born citizen’, then it isn’t going to happen this election cycle.
A state court can, however, rule him off of their own ballot as not meeting the requirements. Cruz would then have standing to challenge that.
Trump could prevail on a 2nd ballot if the delegates came to their sense, but Cruz simply doesn’t have enough delegates to do so.
It is the 3rd ballot and following that will allow GOPE creep to set in. JMHO.
I ORIGINALLY wanted a Trump/Cruz ticket, followed by a Cruz/Palin ticket
But now I want Trump/Palin (especially if HilLIARy gets to run) that will at least counter some of those who would only vote for someone with a vagina
Just about, and Uncle Martin, too.
Remind me which states with actual VOTERS has Cruz WON, aside from Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska’s caucus by a sliver and Wisconsin?
I like Palin, but I doubt she’ll be the selection.
There are a lot of hot emotions about Cruz and Trump by the opponents of each.
I’m hoping they can realize that it was just the heat of battle.
I don’t like Trump and I have supported Cruz because I know he would govern as a conservative despite the bs thrown around hereby Trump supporters. But Trump has won fair and square picking Cruz as a running mate would be a mistake. Going in I knew Cruz had a problem and that problem was a likeability thing. If anything he has gotten worse.
Trump seems to have gotten some advice from adults. Not one Lying Ted or Low Energy Jeb last night. Very impressed. Trump would do himself a big favor by finding a Republican woman insider who has spent a couple of decades in DC who can pass muster with a wide swath of voters and an ability to gut Hillary as well as Carly Fiorina has gutted her.
I don’t fault Cruz for playing political hardball one bit. Sick of conservatives who will not fight. But he just brings nothing to a Trump ticket. Trump will win Texas easily. It’s Florida, Ohio and Virginia he has to target hard.
Like I said I don’t like Trump but I despise Hillary and freeloading commie pos of Vermont. So I will pull for Trump now since NY demonstrated that Cruz has a very narrow appeal among moderates like New Yorkers.
Iowa, Idaho, Maine, Kansas, Wyoming, and Utah need to be on your list, Onyx.
More than that, he does have a sizeable population of people who have voted for him and he does have the 2nd most number of delegates.
Moreover, he has been ‘2nd choice’ for many other voters.
My goal is to defeat Clinton.
I don’t find your post illogical at all.
I can think of others who would make excellent Veep selections.
But none of them have 559 delegates and a hard-hitting campaign on the ground.
Ahhhhhh its so nice!
With all due respect, it's been much, much more than the "heat of battle." I'm ticked off at Ted for allowing himself to be pulled into Trump tactics, and getting personal with the insults.
Trump's going to have to work very hard to unite the party, a tough task the way he conducted his campaign. Might as well have Charlie "Winning" Sheen as his VP pick.
Our points are not in conflict ... and I agree that as the federal court of jurisdiction, it is unlikely SCOTUS will be involved.
I still believe that on both sides it was just the heat of battle.
We are in agreement. Thanks, glennaro
It is teds only path. If he does not do what he called for in Pennsylvania ( time to unite our party and beat Hillary) then he will devolve into Ron Paul status
Trump said China has committed the greatest economic theft in history what they've done to us and it is politicians like Cruz that helped China do it. Trump knows what China is doing and how to stop them. It's our only chance to stop the economic decline.
$365,694,500,000: U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit With China Hit Record in 2015
Why is only Trump mentioning China and the wall to block the illegals’ invasion of the USA?
So what is he doing now?
Ted the career government employee is acting like a petulant child seeking to cause mischief
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