Posted on 04/20/2016 8:31:48 AM PDT by bananaman22
The unveiling of Teslas Model 3 electric car was no less than the lifting of the final curtain on a game-changing energy revolution. And if we follow that revolution to its core, we arrive at lithiumour new gasoline for which the feeding frenzy has only just begun.
Unveiled just on 31 March and already with 325,000 orders, it seems that the market, too, understands that the Model 3 is more than just another electric vehicle. In one week alone, Tesla has racked up around $14 billion in implied future sales, making it the biggest one-week launch of any product ever. (And if you think the implied future sales negates the news, think again: Each order requires a $1,000 refundable deposit.)
It will change the world because it is the first hard indication that the tech-driven energy revolution is not only pending, its arrived. The Model 3 and its stunning one-week sales successapparently achieved without advertising or paid endorsements--brings the electric car definitively into the mainstream, and there is no turning back now. Competitors will step up their game and the electric vehicle rush will be in full throttleso will the war to stake out new lithium deposits.
(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...
When electric vehicle prices drop below internal combustion prices (approx. 4 years from now) the market for internal combustion engines is expected to drop dramatically.
I'm pretty sure Tesla existed before the subsidies for the buyers.
I do not believe that Tesla has ever turned a profit yet its CEO has made millions.
I believe it has had a profitable quarter, but overall it has negative earnings. I'm not sure how much Elon Musk makes for salary, but he's put many more times that of his own money into buying Tesla stock, so I don't see how your statement holds up.
Another question
Gasoline can be made from synthetic hydrocarbons in a Fischer-Tropsch reaction thus, making it a potentially renewable commodity.
Lithium is I believe, a fairly rare mineral. How much of it exist? And, is there enough to meet the demand if everyone drove a Tesla car?
Going back a little into history, does anybody recall anything about the launch of the Tucker Torpedo, back about 1948 or so? There were an enormous number of pre-sales and a huge amount of hype, but Preston Tucker died a broken man.
A total of some 50 or so examples of the vehicle were actually assembled. And every so often, the owners bring them out for public view.
Yes.... I do, at least have read about it. I’m not sure how it applies in today’s government subsidization climate now.
At the 215-300 mile range its still a bad deal unless you live in the city.
...
There’s some truth to that.
I don’t think long range driving will be super convenient until they have stations that can do battery swaps along the interstates. Other than that the infrastructure for charging will keep getting better and better. A charging station can be placed anywhere there’s electrical service (or even something like solar). In the future, a car can be commanded to go charge itself while the driver is doing something else.
However, these cars will be highly desirable for some people who live in urban areas. When they become self driving there is the possibility of fractional ownership, and even cheaper taxi service.
I’m a kind of guy who knows what I want. Just take my order, build it, and don’t do anything stupid with prices. Don’t make me negotiate.
I drive an EV (Leaf). Love it. So long as there’s a charger at work, and I have a gas guzzling SUV at home, I’m good.
Difference is Tesla is actually building significant numbers of them.
No offense you do not want fractional ownership of a vehicle you depend on and don’t want others bodily fluids all over.
Have you seen the uv light tests in hotel rooms? Hotel rooms are the fractional ownership flagship example. Their “cleaning staffs” are why things do not get actually clean.
On subsidies:
When you buy a Tesla, you get a $7,500 rebate from Uncle Sam. While significant, this is 7% of the price of a Tesla Roadster, compared to 30% of the price of some Chevys. I believe Tesla Roadster would have sold almost as well without the rebate, especially since the rebate attracted other players (Fisker, Chevy, Nissan, etc.) who competed with Tesla.
On profitability:
Tesla didn’t report a profit, but only because it’s business plan relies on massive, future expansion, funded by the revenue generated from its highly profitable Roadster. They have attained $8 billion in assets based on about $half a billion investment. That’s fantastic business performance.
“Im a kind of guy who knows what I want”
Me too just not a battery operated car though. Don’t get me wrong, I’m open minded to alternative fuel/power sources, I just don’t see batteries as being the answer (at least not for cars). If I can’t have the economy, speed, range, maintenance costs etc. equivalent to what I have now I’m not on board. IOW I ain’t backing up from what I have now. Neighbors have a ford focus hybrid that runs 76 miles or so on the battery and takes quite a while to recharge. Just can’t feature that.
“I do not believe that Tesla has ever turned a profit yet its CEO has made millions.”
All profits are being plowed back into development. That’s the business plan while it it remains in a long haul growth stage.
Elon Musk made billions by creating and selling PayPal. He’s pouring that cash into Tesla. He’s not making a net profit. He actually created PayPal precisely to get the money for this project.
And the “subsidies” are ONLY tax credits, just like your home mortgage interest deductions. I’m all for lower taxes, and if that’s practically achieved by narrow cuts (our government isn’t going to give big cuts across the board) then leverage it as you can.
I drive an EV. It’s great. Only thing lacking is range, which is improving (Tesla 3 will solve that, I want one).
What about environmental impact at manufacture and disposal? Isn’t that an issue? Not looking for an argument, just tryin’ to educate myself.
Wait until the di-lithium crystals become prevalent =. Never refuel again!
Yup, that’s an issue.
At least those can be managed better for EVs (limited pollution points subject to management & recycling) than gas ICEs (millions of poorly managed exhaust pipes).
Hmmm. Don’t lithium batteries heat up and explode? Yes, they do.....and I speak from personal experience! ;-)
Slightly more toxic than lithium, though... ;)
Only the cheap chi-com batteries that don't have the built-in circuitry to prevent over-charge/over-discharge.
There's a reason why the OEM batteries cost $50 and the after-market batteries cost $30.
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