Posted on 04/05/2016 11:47:19 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
On Tuesday evening, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) blew out 2016 Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump in Wisconsin. As of 10:30 PM ET, Cruz had won well over 50 percent of the vote. Trump is expected to win just six of 42 delegates. This came within hours of the Trump campaign declaring the possibility of a big comeback in Wisconsin.
So, what does all of this mean? Here are six takeaways:
Trump Does Indeed Have A Ceiling. The field has consolidated, but Trump isn’t walking away with huge margins of victory. In fact, in the three states since the field winnowed to three, Trump has lost two (Utah and Wisconsin) while winning one (Arizona). Granted, we’re about to head into states far more favorable to Trump, including New York and Pennsylvania. But the notion that he’s consolidating support for a breeze to the nomination simply isn’t true. There have been 31 states thus far holding caucuses and primaries. Trump hasn’t won a majority in any of them.
Trump Isn’t Walking Away With Working Class Voters Across The Board. Exit polls showed that Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin even among voters with a high school degree or less. As education increased, Trump’s percentages dropped. This is consistent with national findings that Trump is increasingly unpopular with the white working class, his strongest constituency.
Cruz’s Base Is Expanding. Nate Silver puts it this way:
As a sign of Cruz’s potentially expanding base of support, he won 43 percent of the non-evangelical vote tonight in Wisconsin, according to exit polls, beating Trump (37 percent) and Kasich (17 percent).
Conservatives Dislike Trump. Trump won independents in Wisconsin by a small margin, 43 percent to 38 percent, but Cruz won 53 percent of the Republican vote to 34 percent for Trump. The California primary is closed. That won’t help Trump, who draws his support from the most left-leaning elements of the Republican Party base. Trump won moderate/liberal voters by a margin of 41 percent to 29 percent over Cruz in Wisconsin.
We Won’t See “Presidential” Trump Anytime Soon. While Trump tells friendly media faces that he’ll start acting presidential soon in order to remind Americans that he’s fit for office, there’s been no indicator of that so far. After losing in Wisconsin, Trump issued this incredible statement:
Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again. Lyin’ Ted Cruz had the Governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts, and the entire party apparatus behind him. Not only was he propelled by the anti-Trump Super PAC’s spending countless millions of dollars on false advertising against Mr. Trump, but he was coordinating with his own Super PAC’s (which is illegal) who totally control him. Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet – he is a Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump. We have total confidence that Mr. Trump will go on to win in New York, where he holds a substantial lead in all the polls, and beyond. Mr. Trump is the only candidate who can secure the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination and ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton, or whomever is the Democratic nominee, in order to Make America Great Again.
He loses a primary, and promptly accuses his opponent – without evidence – of violating federal law and being “worse than a puppet.” This is the campaign of a small petulant child, and it’s wearing thin. The last three weeks have been terrible for Trump because he has no self-control. If his statement says anything, we're unlikely to see self-control now.
If Trump Doesn’t Pick Up The Pace, No Way He Wins A Majority. Trump was projected by FiveThirtyEight.com to finish just out of the money at the convention – the experts there thought he would finish with just over 1200 delegates. Their math had him finishing much better than he did in Wisconsin. If Trump doesn’t pick up the pace, he could be in serious trouble. The increasingly desperate tone of his campaign suggests that Trump knows it, too. The problem is this: if you’re always turned up to an 11, where do you go when things get desperate?
If you look at the margins of victory, Cruz won by almost the exact same percentage (~13.1%) as Bernie over the beast. I’m not sure “blowout” is a fair term in this case, especially since Cruz has been expected to win WI since January.
Before tonight there were 867 delegates remaining. To reach 1237 delegates Trump required 56% of the remaining delegates. To reach 1237 delegates Cruz required 88% of the remaining delegates. After tonight there are 825 delegates remaining. To reach 1237 delegates Trump requires 58% of the remaining delegates. To reach 1237 delegates Cruz requires 89% of the remaining delegates.
Cruz has fallen further behind, today he moved closer to elimination.
Couldn't one say this:
Cruz does indeed have A ceiling. The field has consolidated, but Cruz isn’t walking away with huge margins of victory. Why is that not even more true of Cruz than of Trump?
Other than supporting the agenda that we need to nominate Kasich, whose ceiling seems to be as a footnote in news stories, or Ryan, who didn't run but shares the positions of the rejected establishment candidates, I'm not sure of the purpose of this article.
I don’t know about SPac assistance, but he can start spending more of his own money. He probably really believed he could campaign on the cheap, just using force of personality, Twitter and media coverage. I doubt you can truly reinvent the campaign process, only evolve it over time.
Wisconsin, with its deep history of socialist politics, votes for Sanders and Cruz? Incontheivable..
- Bernmentum: Sanders wins Wisconsin; Big win for Ted Cruz, possible sweep of delegates?
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- America will "Feel the Bern" if Trump and Cruz don't re-focus
- Wisconsin Feels the Bern While Cruz Gains Momentum in Upcoming Primaries.
- Trump Support Fades As Mistakes Grow; Sanders, Clinton Tied: IBD/TIPP
- Bernie Sanders switches to Republican Party after combing hair
- Sanders hits new fundraising high with $44 million haul in March
- What Trump and Sanders Get Wrong on Trade
- PPP: Sanders, Cruz Will Win WI; Clinton, Trump Lead Nationally
- Insiders: Ted Cruz will capture Wisconsin - Democrats expect a Bernie Sanders victory.
- Susan Sarandon Is Burning for Bernie
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Interesting that there were 49,367 votes in Brown County (Greenbay) this year while there was only 34,000 republican votes cast in the 2012 primary. that's a 44% increase in "Republican" turnout in Greenbay.
Similarly, there were 89,348 votes in Milwaukee county in 2012 vs 105,269 in 2016. That's 15,921 new "Republicans" in Milwaukee.
In Waukesha county (Milwaukee) there were 120,767 in 2016 but only 83,428 in 2012. That's 37,339 new Republican voters in Waukesha. Dane county (madison), had 67,259 Republican votes in 2016 but only 58,258 in 2012.
33,294 republican votes were cast in Winnebago county (Oshkosh) in 2016 but only 25,848 in 2012.
It's also interesting that Dane county, Milwaukee county, and Winnebago county were overwhelmingly blue in 2012 and all had large increases in Republican turnout that overwhelmingly favored Ted Cruz.
It almost seems like Dems exploited the open primary system and crossed over in large numbers for Ted Cruz.
Trump has been hurt by the lack of debates lately. That’s what he was always really good at it — dominating everyone else on the stage with a massive TV viewership to watch it happen.
Excuse me.
Trump needs to debate Cruz one on one.
But he’s Chick’n so he won’t.
He’ll get his butt handed to Himself. Believe me.
Trump is not man enough. He’s EVERYTHING HE HAS ACCUSED OTHERS OF BEING. You know the list.
And don’t give me this crap “They’ve already debated.” We both know that those debates were watered down entertainment venues. I’m talking about an issues debate, man to man.
Cruz has taken off his mask. The in-crowd will let him claim to be a social and Constitutional conservative, as long as they get their globalist elitist agenda fulfilled. This isn't much different from the way GWB framed himself, then got in office and gave them their agenda.
Let's keep it real. Yeah, Cruz has taken off his mask, but he's not being held accountable about the issues. Listen to his speeches....nothing anymore about going back to Constitutional government, sending home invaders, US jobs for US citizens, abolishing Common Core or ObamaCare. Just he can stop Trump.
Let's keep it real here. Trump has got to force Cruz to talk about the issues. Trump has got to make it clear that a vote for Cruz is a vote for jobs going overseas. It's not enough to say Trump stands with US citizens on these issues, he's got to make the case in a more convincing way to voters. He's got to make clear that Cruz doesn't.
PS: Who does analyisis anymore? One reason for the results is that the mad as *ell vote went to Sanders in Wisconsin.
Take away one.
It wasn’t a blow out against Donald. Ted had to take it all... any thing less than 100 percent was not enough. As it stands, with his lack of total dominance, he went into this contest in Wisconsin needing to win 88 percent of all remaining delegates... but with him not getting them ALL, it seems he now need to get 89 percent of the remaining delegates. New York alone makes that impossible. Impossible.
what is being touted as his greatest win so far (and it is his only win east of the mississippi), is actually the death knell of winning uncontested. And the donald doesnt need nearly that percentage... perhaps 58 percent. Entirely doable.
Stick a fork in teddy, this was a “must win all” for teddy. He will go in to the convention without sufficient delegates on the roster to qualify as the uncontested winner nor will he be the leader. and Trump will be the leader having the delegates to negotiate with, and apply the winning stroke... most likely incontestable.
It would have been cool for the Donald to win the whole thing in Wisconsin, but he is still on the track to the required number of delegates... as it stands tonight.
Teddy is toast. and that... is a peaceful thought.
It was reported that Trump gets 5 times more free air time in the media than Cruz. Fact is, the more people hear Trump, the less they like him. He’s nasty.
Picture tells the whole story.
Benny benny benny, how it must feel to lay with the devil, doing his bidding.
All the cruzettes are missing the mark by a country mile.
Teddy is the TOOL
He scares no one in the world of string pullers, why? Because he is the TOOL. Whatever it takes to keep their power and control.
They can all get back to me when Teddy starts to wear a bullet proof vest, carries for safety and has 12+ SS around him. Till then, he’s safe simply because he is NO threat to the game. Ugh, how can people be so naive??
ummm, yup.
That’s exactly what happened
When did Shapiro have his lobotomy.
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