Posted on 03/04/2016 3:13:02 PM PST by nitzy
I think I understand the nomination/convention process but I want to run it by y'all to make sure I am right....
To be on the first ballot at the convention, a candidate must win a "magic 8" states. This is the majority of DELEGATES in at least 8 states. So far, Trump has 4 or 5 of these and will certainly get enough by the end of the primary process. Cruz has only 1 of these (Texas-94 out of 155 delegates) and may or may not eventually get to 8. Rubio and Kasich are pretty much certainly NOT going to get 8 of these.
So, it seems to me that either 1.) Trump is going to be the ONLY candidate on the first ballot and thus cannot lose. OR 2.) Trump AND Cruz will both be on the first ballot.
In the later scenario, either Trump will have the required 1236 pledged delegates and he will win or he will not have reached that mark. If Trump does not have 1236 delegates then it will be a two man election on the first ballot and one of them is guaranteed to win. The delegates pledged to Rubio, Kasich and Carson will have to vote for one of the two and will necessarily give one of them 1236 delegates. This is the part that I am not sure of. Are Rubio's and Kasich's delegates allowed to simply not vote on the first ballot? Are they allowed to vote for the candidate they are bound to even though he did not get the "magic 8" to be considered on the first ballot?
If my understanding is correct, under the current rules, there is no way that the nominee could be anyone other than Cruz or Trump at this point.
First, the Rule #40 is subject to change BEFORE the Convention, so it could be moot.
==
Acquired delegates pertain to the first convention ballot only.
A candidate must [currently] get a majority of delegates in 8 states to be put on the ballot. If a candidate had any delegates but not delegate majorities in 8 states, his name could NOT be entered on the first ballot.
If a candidate has majorities of delegates in 8+ states, but does not reach 1237, his name would be on the first ballot, but, unless some rebel voted, he would not attain the 1237, thus, would not be declared the winner.
Then, the convention would be open starting with the second ballot and the free-for-all would ensue.
A candidate who had delegates but suspended his campaign still retains his delegates. He could release them to vote for whomever they wanted. Or he could hold onto them and hope to be involved in the king-making process by using them as bargaining chips.
It is my understanding that the candidate must have an absolute majority of delegates in 8 states, 51%, not a simply the most delegates from that state. Am I wrong about this?
I think it was Rush L today who said basically the same thing. They can meet before the Convention and change Rule #40 to whatever they want.
Rush went on to say that if they changed it to something that intentionally knocked Trump off the first ballot, Trump and his delegates would likely walk out.
==
The GOPestablish also has to consider that the nominee is also the de facto head of the GOP/RNC and he could remake the GOP in his image. He would also have control of such things as funding of state and local candidates, etc. So the current GOPestablish, the Romney types, etc., can only go so far in trying to deny Trump. If it backfires, it could spell their doom for leadership positions.
Right. 50%+1 of the delegates, not the vote.
You are correct. Trump will have more than enough delegates to win on the first ballot. Scenarios of an “open convention” are more wishful thinking on the part of the TDS crowd.
The way I look at it, we should have everyone get out the vote in the remaining primary states so Trump wins decisively and hopefully we won't have these potential convention shenanigans.
We are in a cold war with the left. We have to fight like it.
a Convention is ultimately run by the delegates.
Even after the Convention opens with a set of rules, A rules change can be proposed on the floor, with a roll call vote.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.