Walsh emerges as first potential primary challenger to Kirk

illinoisreview.typepad.com ^ | 2/17/15

[cotton1706]

CHICAGO - Former Republican congressman and conservative radio host Joe Walsh says he's "seriously looking into" a primary challenge to U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk next year. He told Illinois Review he will decide within the next two months.

Citing Kirk's lack of support for Jim Oberweis' 2014 challenge to Dick Durbin, Walsh told the Daily Herald: "As far as I'm concerned, he [Kirk] left the Republican Party."

The usual political pontificators speculate that Walsh is merely looking to boost ratings, and will ultimately not run. "It's about him and promoting himself and promoting his positions. He's just not viable,” said former professor Kent Redfield.

Kirk, who is a top Democrat target in 2016, suffered a stroke in 2012, which has left him with slurred speech, difficulty concentrating, and bound to a wheelchair much of the time.

Walsh argues that Kirk has used his stroke to garner sympathy and scare away other potential primary challengers. “I think because of his overall physical condition I don't know anyone else who would consider challenging him and that's just plain wrong,” he said. “If you privately talk to people who would ordinarily primary him, they'd all say ‘he's got no business running, but I can't challenge him, look at who he is, people are going to say I'm mean spirited because I'm challenging him.'”

Walsh believes Kirk's health is part of the reason he shouldn't run and will likely lose if he's the GOP nominee. Kirk insists he's running, and told The Hill “Based on the polling, I'd say a Republican candidate would be very foolish to come up against me… that'd be a pretty stupid move.”

[cotton1706]

Kirk (IL) - 2016 - 47% (Average) - 29% (CReview) - 39% (Heritage) - 74% (CFG) - 44% (ACU) - 50% (FreedomWorks)

[IncPen]

Walsh should save his money and everyone else's time.

Rahm and the corrupt Illinois machine will name someone to complement the feckless corporate tool Dick Durbin (before he dicks you), and then everyone in Illinois can go back to sleep.

Nothing to see here. Move along.

[fieldmarshaldj]

The Combine will eviscerate Walsh if he tries to displace the execrable lying phony leftist Kirk.

[Impy]

Some believe Walsh is just Donald Trumping here (doing it for ratings, he has a radio show) and won’t really run. That would piss me off if true, I can’t stand Donald Trumping.

He wouldn’t win but would be worth a protest vote, I guess. Zero chance in the general if he pulled the upset.

I see no chance to get anything but a worse (D) Senator unless Kirk doesn’t run and Roskam runs for the open seat.

Hey maybe we should have the state leg choose the Senator. That way we’ll know it will be Lisa Madigan and we can stop worrying about it.

[PhilCollins]

I think that a conservative might win that primary and that it will be difficult for any Republican to win the general election. I hope a conservative will run in that race, since, in the primary and general elections, more conservatives would vote for that candidate and for conservative candidates for the U.S. House and the legislature.

[Impy]

I think that a conservative might win that primary and that it will be difficult for any Republican to win the general election

If Kirk is renominated, as he very likely will be unless his health forces him to quit, let's be real about that, I'd give him at least even odds in the general, intially I'm inclined to call him the slight favorite for reelection. The # of crossover votes he needs is very manageable, assuming the rat POTUS nominee fails to do as ridiculously well in the State as Obama did.

I don't like Kirk but (and feel free to disagree) I would eagerly vote him over the fake war hero *itch Suckworth, the pompous faggy egghead Foster, or any of other the disgusting bags of diseased pus that are considering running on the rat side.

Most realistic scenario for a conservative Senator is if Kirk has another stroke and quits and Roskam runs in his place. He'd have a shot in the general.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I agree, Roskam is the only conservative hope in Illinois (at least as far as the U.S. Senate goes), but if Roskam runs against an incumbent Kirk (who would milk his stroke for all it’s worth) in the GOP primary he would get so sullied in defeating Kirk that he would lose to the Democrat in the general.

And Kirk is scum, but he’s better than Cleland in a Skirt or any of the other RAT candidates. I’m particularly afraid of Congresswoman Cheri Bustos, who would stay in the Senate for at least four terms if she gets elected.

[Impy]

Yes, Cleland in a Skirt. That was mine, I believe. ;d

[AuH2ORepublican]

Was it? If so, my larceny was unintentional.

Oops, you’re correct, you called her “Max Cleland in a skirt” last November: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3227380/replies?c=7

I guess I subconsciously stole it from you, like Coldplay did to Joe Satriani when it wrote Viva la Vida. Sorry about that. I hereby announce that, while I will continue to refer to Duckworth as “Cleland in a Skirt,” I will give you credit for it if anyone asks. In return, you may refer to Senator Brian Schatz as “The Hebrewaiian Sheep Rapist,” so long as you give me credit for the name if someone asks. : )

[PhilCollins]

I think it would be hard for any Republican to win that general election because of how well IL Democrats did, in 2014. RINO’s were elected governor and comptroller, but Democrats won more statewide races, U.S. Senate, attorney general, secretary of state, and treasurer.

In 2010, the main reason that Kirk won is LaAlan Jones, the Green Party candidate. Kirk beat the Democrat, Alexi Giunilias, by about 81,000 votes, and Jones got about 113,000 votes. If Jones didn’t run, the majority of his supporters would have voted for Alexi, helping him win. If the Green Party has popular candidate, in 2016, the Republican might win.

[Impy]

You know what I think about your theory of basing results on the next election by the last one. IIRC you predicted Quinn would win with 53% in 2014 and cited the margin of Obama’s victory in 2012 as the reason why.

The key # for Kirk will be the % that Hillary, or whatever other piece of crap they might nominate, rolls up at the top of the ticket, not the results of the midterm election 2 years prior.

[Impy]

LOL. Please use it as often as you like, I want it to catch on!!

[BillyBoy]

I think Phil is correct on this one.

It's possible for a conservative to win a U.S. primary against a RINO in Illinois(Salvi and Fitzgerald did, which is why the combine was so hellbent on making sure NO credible conservative got on the ballot against Kirk in 2010, and likely threatened Peter Roskam and Jim Durkin if they ran) However, it will be very difficult for ANY Republican (conservative OR RINO... and yes that includes Kirk) to win the general election in 2016, given the political climate in Illinois.

Walsh has nothing to lose, he's out of office and if the combine threatens him (which they will certainly do), he likely won't give a flip what they think since he defeated Melissa Bean without their help. The question, as Impy noted, is whether Walsh is geninuely interested in running (I hope so), or whether he's just pulling a Donald Trump/William J. Kelly and throwing the idea out there to boost the ratings of his radio show (which would seriously pi$$ me off)

I think Kirk has outlived his usefulness to the combine. He's no longer the charming boyish smooth-talker he was before the stroke, and now they have Rauner as their leading "moderate" GOP voice in Illinois (though Rauner might have ticked off his combine masters with his executive order against the unions). Again, we'll know whether the combine has washed their hands of Kirk by whether a powerful, popular RAT is "allowed" to run against him. If it's a Cheri Bustos or Michelle Obama type opponent, the combine has thrown Kirk under the bus. If his "opposition" is a pathetic joke like Carol Moseley Braun seeking a "comeback" or Rev. Unknown Marxist of Chicago winning the RAT Senate nomination, then Kirk is favored by the combine for another term.

Either way, Kirk will be a liberal douchebag and give Obama "bipartisan" support regardless of how Illinois voters feel about Obama's latest scheme, so again, a Walsh vs. Kirk matchup would be ideal.

[SunkenCiv]

Kirk, who is a top Democrat target in 2016, suffered a stroke in 2012, which has left him with slurred speech, difficulty concentrating, and bound to a wheelchair much of the time. Walsh argues that Kirk has used his stroke to garner sympathy and scare away other potential primary challengers.

Yeah, that's a real genius strategy. What a pig!

[AuH2ORepublican]

The problem with your analysis is that Walsh would get trounced in the general by any Democrat, even Carol Mosely Braun. Peter Fitzgerald wasn’t a (figurative) bomb-thrower, much less a (literal) deadbeat.

I hope that one, and only one, conservative runs against Kirk, and that such conservative is someone that can win. Walsh jumping in means that either he will be the only conservative running and the next Senator from IL will be either a liberal Democrat or Mark Kirk, or he will be a spoiler that splits the conservative vote with a viable conservative and allows Kirk to win the primary with a plurality.

[BillyBoy]

>> Walsh would get trounced in the general by any Democrat, even Carol Mosely Braun <<

Hmmm. I would say FORMER Congresswoman Melissa Bean might disagree with you on that one. She dispatched much more "credible" candidates than Walsh, like David McSweeney.

I'd also argue that Walsh would still be in office today, if the RATs hadn't redrawn his district to be safe RAT.

[AuH2ORepublican]

“Hmmm. I would say FORMER Congresswoman Melissa Bean might disagree with you on that one. She dispatched much more “credible” candidates than Walsh, like David McSweeney.”

---

McSweeney didn’t run in ultra-Republican 2010. He ran in ultra-Democrat 2006, the worst midterm election for the GOP since 1974. I would posit that the respective years in which McSweeney and Walsh ran had everything to do with their respective results. Besides, even in 2010, Walsh only won by 48.5%-48.3% (with the Green costing Bean reelection by getting 3.2%). Walsh was ridiculously lucky to have won that year, despite the Republican wave that was sweeping in nearly everyone throughout Illinois (and nationwide); McSweeney would have won handily that year.

“I’d also argue that Walsh would still be in office today, if the RATs hadn’t redrawn his district to be safe RAT.”

---

Well, that’s certainly possible, since the old 8th was quite Republican (and only elected Democrat Bean because Crane had outstayed his welcome in 2004 and then 2006 and 2008 were so ridiculously Democrat). But even under the old lines, it would have been close for a candidate as flawed as Walsh. The IL-08’s McCain 2008 percentage was decreased from 43% under the old lines to 37% under the new lines, so, ceteris paribus, Walsh could be expected to pick up 6% of the vote had the 2012 elections been under the old lines. Since he lost to Tammy Duckworth—who was a terrible candidate—by 55%-45%, it would mean that Walsh would have won by only 51%-49% under the old lines all things being equal.

Of course, getting 51% in a district that had given Bush 56% in 2004 (12% better than he did statewide) would not be a very impressive calling card for a potential candidacy in a statewide race.

[nascarnation]

Any more talk of MooseChelle Obama in this race? I haven’t heard anything about her looking at the Boxer seat in Cal either.

[Impy]

Just that rumor a few years ago, that’s all I’ve ever heard. I doubt she runs. If she does I would get down to the polling place an hour before the polls open to make sure I’m the first voter in the whole damn state to vote for ANY Republican against that *itch. But she’d win.

[hockeyfan44]

The Combine will eviscerate Walsh if he tries to displace the execrable lying phony leftist Kirk.

I saw that Tammy Duckworth is going to run against Kirk. I would imagine she would trounce him. The Dems will be out in force to vote for Hillary and the fraud machine in Cook County will still be functioning.

I think it will be very hard to primary Kirk out as a lot of Republican voters in this state seem to only care about name recognition.

The fact that Oberweiss beat Truax still sickens me. Truax may not have beat Turbin Durbin but he would have won many more votes than the perennial loser Oberweiss.

I wish Oberweiss would move to another state so he could quit running for office only to lose every time.