Posted on 05/02/2013 8:45:09 AM PDT by Seizethecarp
The horrific crash of a 747-400 at Bagram (here) has yet to be fully investigated and claims are already being made that it was a stall caused by a loose cargo that caused tail of the aircraft to drop and the nose to rise depriving the wings of lift.
Maybe.
The Bagram 747 crash has many similarities to the even more horrific crash of AWACS flight Yukla-27, (here) which was caused by the aircraft striking at least two Canada Geese in the Runway Kill Zone (RKZ) as discussed on an earlier post on this blog (here).
Terrorists familiar with the vulnerability of large jet airliners in the RKZ could produce a nearly identical or very similar crash profile to the Bagram event. They could do this by mining the Bagram runway with autonomous GPS-guided multi-copters placed exactly where they would collide with each jet turbine as the 747-400 passed through the RKZ of the Bagram runway.
“It’s a stall.”
But what caused the stall?
1. nose of plane too high?
2. loss of thrust?
3. cargo shift
4. loss of control of control surfaces?
5. improper flapp settings?
The point of the blog post is that terrorist can intentionally cause a stall nearly identical to the one that occurred at Bagram, without claiming that this is what happened there.
“According to a listener on frequency the crew reported the aircraft stalled due to a possible load shift.”
That is the claim. Many claims at the time of an accident don’t prove to be true.
The point of the blog is not that this was NOT caused by cargo shift, but that a similar stall could be achieved by use of GPS-guided drones place to mine the Bagram runway in the V1-VR Runway Kill Zone (RKZ).
This is a cargo plane.
It is climbing out at a very steep angle in a hostile zone.
The footage to me looks clearly like a cargo shift.
The plane stands on its tail, decelerates rapidly and departs from controlled flight to begin that settling crash into the ground that looks completely characteristic to me.
“Furthermore an engine taken out by something in the compressor would be sending out bursts of flame and smoke in profuse quantity, especially if it was a full power (as it would be, especially at that airport).”
Good point.
“No need to pander to knee-jerk conspiracy theorists about hypothetical GPS drone attacks.”
The Runway Kill Zone blog does not claim that this crash WAS caused by terrorists. The blog attempts to educate officials and the public to the emerging threat posed by terrorists who can now reverse-engineer bird-strike type engine failures in the V1-VR “kill zone” which would look a lot like this crash profile.
“The typical consumer grade quadcopter probably doesn’t have enough mass to constitute a serious threat anyway.”
As pointed out up-thread, tiny kestrel birds brought down 747!
Here are the stats on the kestrel:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Kestrel
Common Kestrels measure 32–39 cm (13–15 in) from head to tail, with a wingspan of 65–82 cm (26–32 in). Females are noticeably larger, with the adult male weighing 136-252 g (c,5-9 oz), around 155 g (around 5.5 oz) on average; the adult female weighs 154-314 g (about 5.5-11 oz), around 184 g (around 6.5 oz) on average.
Is runway kill blog yours?
Yes it is his. He seems to be dedicated to giving stupid terrorist information about how to bring down planes. Lose lips sink ships.
“Is runway kill blog yours?”
Yes, I am “2branta”...
I went to the US Secret Service in 2006 with this concept and they told me to “get my meds adjusted.”
I then went to the Air Force director of research...the top guy...and he thanked me for bringing this attack vector to his attention and complimented my patriotism. He also pointedly told me that he had forwarded the Runway Kill Zone concept to the Air Force One group commander.
I asked this Air Force research director whether I should keep this concept confidential and he said all of the elements are out there in the public so there was nothing secret about it.
Interesting. WHen I was at Mosul, Balad, and Bagram, we had drone strikes since I was UAV detatchment commander. 2 Ravens and a Shadow.
Raven 1 hit a UH60 that dropped into UAV AOA unauthorized. Nice dent. Soiled pants of pilot and crew. Aircraft grounded until repaired.
Raven 2 hit a Airbus....nice dent. Airbus grounded 24 hours for inspection.
Shadow hit by IL 76. BIG DENT. Grounded airplane that got into our AO.
All drone strikes were pilots not following NOTAMS or leaving their airspace into ours.
Mini copters hitting a 747 ain’t going to bring it down. Much less probable than durka durka with a Mosin Nagant with 100 year old ammo (golden bb).
Nice Blogpimping though....our company blocks all spam and blogs though so I couldnt get on it.
“That is what a cargo shift causes.”
If the weight shift is not greater than aerodynamic force - stick forward to maintain airspeed, flight normal.
If the weight shift is greater than can be aerodynamically controlled (stick forward won’t prevent continued nose rotation)- nose won’t drop when stall is reached.
Airplane reaches stall due to angle of attack, nose drops at stall and after sufficient altitude aircraft becomes controllable - normal ops. Exactly what the video shows, just without sufficient altitude to recover.
“Mini copters hitting a 747 ain’t going to bring it down.”
Thanks for your comment. I appreciate real-world military related experience.
Your examples did not involve intentional ingestion of a drone by a high-bypass turbofan...a very delicate machine.
As posted up-thread, here, again is the link to the crash of a 747 freighter which was done in by a tiny kestrel bird:
“The aircraft experienced a stall in its inboard right-hand Pratt & Whitney JT9D engine after it ingested a kestrel during the take-off roll on 25 May last year.”
A single Canada Goose can take out a jet engine as seen with Captain Sully’s crash in the Hudson and with the AWACS Yukla-27 crash, and they weigh less and have softer parts than available cheap multi-copters.
Here is the accident report on the AWACS Yukla-27, which inspired my blog (please check the blog out when you get home!):
http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19950922-0
“Whatever you think tinfoil boy...”
Hey! I proudly RESEMBLE that remark!
But so does the FBI:
Drone sighting over NYC has FBI on alert; craft came within 200 feet of Alitalia jet
http://pix11.com/2013/03/05/drone-sighting-near-jfk-has-fbi-on-alert/#axzz2N13RZpsR
The FBI has launched an investigation. The Joint Terror Task Force is also investigating.
PIX11 spoke with Martin Feely, supervisory special agent for the FBI, who said the bureau is taking this incident very seriously. Nothing has been ruled out.
Martin Feely, a supervisory special agent, said this incident was very unusual and they didn’t have any explanation for it.
“We’re concerned that in the future the public could be at risk for these kinds of incidents so we’re asking for the public’s assistance,” said Feely. “We know its the kind of thing that could be a threat to an aircraft in the future.”
Aviation expert Dan Rose said this could have had catastrophic consequences.
“Any time you have an object in the air that close to where planes are taking off, it’s an extreme danger..potentially having a mid-air collision,” said Rose.
FBI Investigating Report Of Possible Drone Spotted Near JFK
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/03/05/fbi-investigating-report-of-possible-drone-spotted-near-jfk/
Sean Hennessey is the CBS2 News reporter who covered the JFK story.
Al Yurman, former NTSB investigator:
“You take an object that weighs 20-25 pounds and it can do a lot of damage to a plane trying to land.
“If the object gets in the wrong place, like the engine or it happens to hit the windshield, depending on the weight, it could cause the plane to make an emergency landing.”
“Look no further than the 2009 ‘Miracle on the Hudson’ when a flock of geese got into the engines crippling an Airbus A320 forcing the pilot to make an amazing landing in the Hudson River.
“Something that small probably won’t show up.” (on the airport radar)
Lloyd Bennett Field (model aircraft field near JFK)
Do you think it's appropriate to use Freerepublic to pimp your blog?
Are you on any psychotropic drugs?
I asked this Air Force research director whether I should keep this concept confidential and he said all of the elements are out there in the public so there was nothing secret about it.
Precisely, it is no secret and the only thing you're doing is giving ideas to people who might be over the edge. You might want to think about that and stop pimping your blog, go do it at DU, they'll eat it up over there.
You do know that today's high bypass engines are made to contain a major failure of the engine? I seriously doubt a little quadrotor toy would destroy a 747's engine that would cause the plane to crash. It may need to be replaced or repaired but I'm betting it'll still have enough thrust to land safely and if you think you can hit all four engines, I don't think so.
You'd be better of doing what Sean Connery did in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade where he made a bunch of birds take off into the path of a German plane.
You might want to read post 49 for content this time.
Even before the video centered on the plane the 747 was already in mid stall.
Sure looks like a cargo shift accident to me...not that I have seen too many.
I have flown RC planes with the CG way too far aft...looks just like the video.
“Check the National Air Cargo website.”
http://www.nationalaircargo.com/default.aspx
OK, it says:
“As of now, the cause of the accident is unknown.”
No mention of cargo shift...but:
I assume their lawyers would tell them to scrupulously avoid admitting responsibility for a cargo shift pending the final accident report.
Yeah, this is what has to suck -- IF the vector wasn't pure pilot error (unlikely, but you just can't tell from the vid), then it's a masterpiece of a recovery to put it down at three points, and you'd think karma would roll him a second chance; instead it's just controlled descent into terrain...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.