“Your third scenario misses the mark (you are right with the first two). If the GOP gives him the tax he wants it will do nothing to improve the economy in any way. In fact things will slide further.”
No, not off the mark.
The reality is that in America today, it doesn’t really matter to a large part of the voting population whether the economy is improving or not.
If it did, how did Obama persuade a majority of Americans to vote for him, in one of the worst economic environments (of his own making) in American history?
If it did, Obama would have lost. He did not lose. He won.
The “new reality” of American politics (in the new “divided America”) is that the successful promulgation of a theme is more important than reality. Because in the new America, we have a growing share of the population that has no idea of what economic “reality” even -is-. And wouldn’t be able to comprehend it in any case.
Perception has become “the new reality”.
Apply this to my scenario #3, and you’ll see how that will work for the ‘rats in 2014. It may even work BETTER for them than scenarios #1 and #2....
Aside: Who cares about unemployment when you’re gettin’ your free ObamaPhone?
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Because...
1. They successfully painted MR as the candidate of the rich, helped along by MR's off the cuff 47% comment.
2. They successfully painted Ryan as the leader of the House Gop's efforts to protect the rich.
3. They successfully campaigned on the notion that all we have to do is get the rich to pay their "fair share" and all would be hunky-dory.
I say give up the "rich", take that arrow out of their quiver and let the hammer fall anyway. If the GOP stands on this then the same campaign that won 2012 for them will win 2014 for them.