Posted on 11/02/2012 9:02:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Nice article. Links are good too. Thanks.
Morris will say he couldn't have forseen the bounce Obama got from hurricane Sandy as a way of explaining away his ridiculously silly prediction of a Romney landslide.
I largely agree with this. Both campaigns have a clear strategy. obama’s is defensive in the extreme. Romney’s is offensive. That doesn’t mean Romney wins automatically, but it is an accurate assessment of where the race sits in the final hours.
I also note that the rhetoric of both campaigns is really wildly, supernaturally confident. Certainly the craziest I have seen in my lifetime (except where there wasn’t a real contest, like 08). obama is way cockier than either Bush or Kerry in 04.
I don’t think the “we are winning” rhetoric from both campaigns tells us much, except that, perhaps, it is extremely close and that any advantage to be gained is worth trying for.
(Or....living in my own private hope/wish/prayer....Romney is actually 3 or 5 ahead....and that Gallup is right).
At the end of the day, this sits where it has always say:
Ohio is important.
Either Romney or obama could win. (Or else Romney could win big....keep hoping and praying).
I think it may be at least a week before we know the official outcome.
It will be a Romney landslide. It will be around 47% to 53% which is a landslide. Morris is the only one who predicted the midterm landslide and nothing has changed.
Pray for America
Utter hogwash. Virtually everyone in the predicting business correctly called the Republicans to win the midterms in a landslide. Even that goofy Nate Silver predicted the Republicans would win over 50 seats in the midterms. Same is true with Stu Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, etc.
Morris was wildly optimistic and predicted a near 100 seat win for the Republicans which wasn't even close.
You don’t think Willard will win big? I think he will. People will choose the slow cancer over being set on fire right now.
Obama has nothing like the enthusiasm he had four years ago, and while few actually like Romney many more can gleefully vote against Obama.
“I think it may be at least a week before we know the official outcome.”
Could be. Al Franken style recounts attempted.
I doubt that President Obama will get a bounce by a natural phenomena that suppresses the important early vote by his base, especially in Philadelphia.
In PA, is the Eastern (Dem) half of the state affected by Sandy, possibly with gas prices high, power lines down, and people with other things on their minds than voting? What about New York? Will Sandy depress votes in the NYC area enough to let the upstaters carry the state? What about Mass and CT? If fact, all of New England, such as NH, VT, and ME? Will the coastal liberal vote be depressed more than inland staters?
Finally, I remember an old saying back from when most people voted on election day: "The weather determines the turnout." Republicans have always been determined, broken glass voters. They will come out in a hurricane to vote. Dems will stay home if there is a rainshower. I know the actual storm is passed, but it happened during early voting, and there was bad weather that affected states as far away as MI and OH.
“....and while few actually like Romney”
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Uhhh, you DO realize that Romney’s personal approval (likeability) numbers are now HIGHER across the nation then are Obama’s don’t you?
Enoch Powell was right. I see Rivers of Blood in the future.
RE: Morris was wildly optimistic and predicted a near 100 seat win for the Republicans which wasn’t even close.
NOPE. I distinctly and very clearly heard him say 64 to 66 seats when interviewed by Hannity. He was quite close ( the final number was 63 ).
I know there is a research term for bias based on what you “know.”
But I just cannot see Obama winning a single vote that McCain got.
I cannot see him getting more minorities to vote.
I cannot see him getting ALL of the college/youth vote. They are pissed off.
All of these little pieces, add up.
I think Romney wins it comfortably. Perhaps not a landslide. But I think a lot of folks in the media are just as biased with their views as I am with mine.
I am a little nervous...but I will get up and go to work on Wednesday no matter what.
I predict we know by midnight, Tuesday.
Incorrect. Morris predicted as many as 100 seats and virtually guaranteed we win the Senate. Neither of those things happened. I’d link some of his quotes but they go back to lefty sites lampooning Morris and I don’t want to give them any traffic.
Romney may pull this out, but it is not going to be a landslide by any stretch of the imagination. I would be willing to bet Morris’s excuse will be Hurricane Sandy. He will say he couldn’t have forseen the bump Hussein got from it at the last minute.
Uhhh, you DO realize that Romney’s personal approval (likeability) numbers are now HIGHER across the nation then are Obama’s don’t you?
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Uuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhh, you DO realize that is not much of a benchmark?
Well I stand by my philosophy of always being pessimistic, that way you’re never disappointed.
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