I largely agree with this. Both campaigns have a clear strategy. obama’s is defensive in the extreme. Romney’s is offensive. That doesn’t mean Romney wins automatically, but it is an accurate assessment of where the race sits in the final hours.
I also note that the rhetoric of both campaigns is really wildly, supernaturally confident. Certainly the craziest I have seen in my lifetime (except where there wasn’t a real contest, like 08). obama is way cockier than either Bush or Kerry in 04.
I don’t think the “we are winning” rhetoric from both campaigns tells us much, except that, perhaps, it is extremely close and that any advantage to be gained is worth trying for.
(Or....living in my own private hope/wish/prayer....Romney is actually 3 or 5 ahead....and that Gallup is right).
At the end of the day, this sits where it has always say:
Ohio is important.
Either Romney or obama could win. (Or else Romney could win big....keep hoping and praying).