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Flawed Poll Models Underestimating Romney’s Lead
Wall Street Examiner ^ | November 1, 2012 | Russ Winter

Posted on 11/01/2012 8:44:10 PM PDT by Art in Idaho

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To: Publius Maximus

The absentee numbers from Cuyahoga are dismal for Ds-—they are down 6 points from 08.


41 posted on 11/02/2012 4:11:09 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: tflabo

Kasich, who has been unwilling to make a prediction, this week said R would win OH and he had no doubt.


42 posted on 11/02/2012 4:13:32 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

So here’s my totally anecdotal evidence on this election, as I’m a resident of Cuyahoga County...

1 - Not nearly as many Obama signs as 2008. More Romney signs than McCain had, but they’re in areas that I’d predict them to be anyway.

2 - I early voted a week ago today. There was no line at the BOE, and I’d say there were maybe 10-15 others voting at the same time (around 8am). The BOE was definitely prepared for crowds, as they had around 30 workers ready for check-ins, and around 60-70 ballot booths set up.

3 - Judging from my Facebook wall, Obama wins in a landslide. (Ha!) Some of the nonsense that’s being passed around on Facebook is disgusting.


43 posted on 11/02/2012 6:35:59 AM PDT by epcot1982
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To: epcot1982

Heard from internal poll guy (take it FWIW) dead even in OH, so turnout should win this puppy by a couple.


44 posted on 11/02/2012 6:39:53 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Art in Idaho

I’ve been saying 322 (giving Romney PA and the one EV in Maine), but otherwise it looks identical to my prediction.


45 posted on 11/02/2012 6:41:45 AM PDT by 6ppc (It's torch and pitchfork time)
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To: LS

Bill Cunnigham was on Hannity and said with doubt OH would go Romney.


46 posted on 11/02/2012 7:07:36 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: InvisibleChurch
Thank you for the reminder to stay calm.

I have been riding these political polls until I feel seasick!!

I should read my own tag line once in a while... " Change and decay in all around I see;......

O THOU who changest not, abide with me."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxqylxfYyQM

47 posted on 11/02/2012 7:34:03 AM PDT by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: Perdogg
Just spoke to Mont. Co. official who thinks it's a very real possibility we win Montgomery Co., and by enough to overcome the provisional ballots. Kasich won the county on election night, but lost by 150 provisionals.

All other things being equal, in normal circumstances, there is no way a D wins OH without carrying Montgomery Co. On the other hand, an R just has to not lose it by more than 4-5000. Bush lost, but it was close.

48 posted on 11/02/2012 7:55:40 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: comebacknewt

I predict R 53% o 47%.


49 posted on 11/02/2012 8:45:40 AM PDT by pfflier
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To: Art in Idaho; Hugin

Just came from a Rom. rally in Milwaukee. VIP seats cuz I was with my legislator friend.

Mittens looked and acted presidential, calm and in control.
We’ve gotta win this folks.

Wish us luck here in GROUND ZERO WISCONSIN TIMES 2.


50 posted on 11/02/2012 12:02:18 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (Pray for our Republic...)
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To: Perdogg

“said with doubt Ohio would go Romney”.

What do you mean, P?

He said Rom. will probably win but he has doubts? or he doubts Rom. will go for OH?

Billie is a rather negative guy so wouldn’t put much stock in what he says.


51 posted on 11/02/2012 12:05:31 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (Pray for our Republic...)
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To: Mountain Mary

..he said take a Romney win in OH to the Bank


52 posted on 11/02/2012 12:10:13 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

!


53 posted on 11/02/2012 12:11:53 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (Anger a Conservative by telling a lie; Anger a Liberal by telling the truth. - RWR 8-)
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To: Mountain Mary
Mittens looked and acted presidential, calm and in control. We’ve gotta win this folks. Wish us luck here in GROUND ZERO WISCONSIN TIMES 2.

Good Luck Mountain Mary! GO WISCONSIN!! We're Going to Win!!

54 posted on 11/02/2012 5:27:36 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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