One KEY Rasmussen Poll gets too little attention, especially from the national media

Coach is Right ^ | 10/21/2012 | Doug Book

[Oldpuppymax]

A poll taken monthly by Rasmussen has received very little attention from the Obama campaigners in the mainstream media. It is the poll of Party Affiliation and it is published on the Rasmussen site going back to 2004. (3)

Why should this poll be taken AT LEAST as seriously as any polling result by any polling company in the US? Simple. Because the “…poll of party identification corresponds with the results of national elections.” (1)

Look at the results in various election years since 2004 as they compare with Rasmussen’s political party identification numbers. In 2004, George Bush narrowly won re-election in the Electoral College 286-251 after taking Ohio with its 20 electoral votes. The GOP also picked up 3 senate seats and 3 house seats. (2)

And the party affiliation numbers were also very close...

[ClearCase_guy]

When they do a poll of party affiliation, is it a D+6 poll?

[gusopol3]

The head pollster at Gallup said on Fox this AM when asked by Chris Wallace, that they don’t even consider party affiliation; he had a lot of reasons, that there were no national measurements of affiliation, that it went up and down with the rest of polling, that exit polls asking people to identify are , of course, polls themselves, so Gallup never measures it as an independent variable except for “informational purposes” near the end ( I presume of the election cycle, though he could have meant toward the end of the interview.) He did make a lot of enthusiasm though.

[Brian Kopp DPM]

Why the disparity in party affiliation polling between Rasmussen and Gallup?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

[Big Giant Head]

So, in a nutshell, 2010 was an EPIC election win with the Republicans having a party affiliation advantage of 1.3%, and as recently as August, the R’s have an advantage of 4.3%?

This is going to be a blowout.

[Dilbert San Diego]

It sure seems like the media is doctoring all of these polls, to create the impression that Obama is more popular than he really is.

Then, if Obama loses, the liberals will claim somehow the election was stolen, because they will say, look at all of the polls beforehand showing Obama doing much better than the actual vote count turned out. Such results would be attributed to stealing the election, not because the American people voted Obama down. It’s unthinkable to the liberals that Obama won’t win this election.

[Brian Kopp DPM]

It sure looks that way.

Yesterday at a family gathering, my twenty something Democrat nephew, who voted for Obama in 2008, asked me for a R/R sticker for his car.

My elderly patients who voted Obama in 2008 simply are not voting this year. They might not be able to bring themselves to vote for Romney, but they are NOT voting for Obama. And this is in Jack Murtha’s home district, an old Dem stronghold. There are very few Obama yard signs here, but numerous R/R signs. That’s true across western PA.

Dem turnout looks like it will be a record low, GOP turnout will be huge, and indies are going Romney 2 to 1.

[Redmen4ever]

The fellow from Gallup means at the end of the interview. An easy way to reconcile the surge in support for Romney in Gallup to the modest uptick in Raz, is that Raz weights by the lagging average of party affiliation. Therefore, when party affiliation moves in concert with voter preference, Raz will, for a while, stifle the surge.

[gusopol3]

Thanks, I’d wondered about that. So , it’s not just Zogby has “special sauce.”

[Oldpuppymax]

“So, in a nutshell, 2010 was an EPIC election win with the Republicans having a party affiliation advantage of 1.3%, and as recently as August, the R’s have an advantage of 4.3%?

This is going to be a blowout.”

You may well be right! Rasmussen numbers in this poll have pretty well mirrored election results and there can be no better measure of reliability than that!

[LongWayHome]

Thanks. That makes sense.

[SuziQ]

Here in East Central MA, I’m seeing some Elizabeth Warren signs, plenty of Scott Brown signs, and quite a few Romney/Ryan signs, but I have YET to see an Obama yard sign!

[ShovelThemOut]

“Then, if Obama loses, the liberals will claim somehow the election was stolen,...”

If Zero loses, the liberals will claim RACISM. Their polls will have been correct, but racist whites lied to the pollster.