Posted on 10/10/2012 2:22:03 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
This is a must-read Sean Trende column on why Obama’s bandwagon strategy has demanded that he remain in the lead at every point in the campaign. I’ve been saying for months now that Obama’s fundraising in particular – and even moreso, his ability to deter Romney from raising money from business – was hugely dependent on convincing business interests that Obama’s regulators would still be calling the shots after the election and they should not feel safe about going all-in to be rid of him. This is also why Obama’s team has gone nuclear in its attacks on individual polls that show cracks in his armor, moreso even than usual for political campaigns and much, much moreso than usual for campaigns that are ahead in most of the polls. The same goes for Obama’s ability to draw huge turnout from young voters and other traditionally low-turnout groups.
Today’s battery of good polling news for Romney (including a boost from Gallup switching from a registered-voter to likely-voter model) is far from proof that Romney will win the election, but it is a blow to the overwhelming narrative leading into the first debate that the race had already been won by Obama, and that any skepticism of polls assuming an overwhelmingly Democratic electorate was conspiracy-level crackpottery. At last check, the liberal-run TPM polling average had Romney up by 2.8 points, a wider lead than the 2.5 point lead Unskewedpolls.com was showing. The state-by-state polling may not be entirely caught up yet, but it usually lags; John McCain was clinging to swing-state polling for weeks after he fell behind for good in the big national trackers.
Republicans have been saying for weeks that this was still a close race. Today, the polls caught up to that. Obama may yet win, but he can no longer do so just by projecting inevitability, running out the clock and letting the media bury any story that threatened to help Romney under horse race coverage. Obama and Biden have been ducking tough questions – Obama does interviews on The View and music and sports radio, while dodging the White House press corps; since joining the ticket, Paul Ryan has done 197 interviews, while Biden in the same time has done 1. You can run like that when you’re way ahead; you can’t if you actually need to get a positive message of your own out.
There are three debates left to go (including the VP debate), which will let a national audience judge the campaigns for themselves, and despite Democratic dissatisfaction with Jim Lehrer’s refusal to act as a gatekeeper running interference against Romney, it’s unlikely that the moderators of the remaining debates can protect Obama and Biden from having to win those debates on their own.
moreso is not a word.
Ahh, there he is. I knew the thug would appear sooner or later.
but everyone knows what it means.
More's the pity.
Then they called Romney every name in the book---saying Romney was a felon. That didn't work.
Then came debate night---where Romney commanded the stage up against Ohaha's feeble, dog-eared appearance.
Desperate post-debate Obamatons then launched a united "Romney is a liar" jihad. That didn't work.
Now the Ohoho's are resorting to using ads w/ Big Bird.....and a trashman.
Guess what? That ain't gonna work, either.
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Gallup reported Romney scored the biggest debate win in US political history.
Of those who watched, 72% picked Mitt Romney as the winner, while only 20% thought Obama won. That''s the biggest win in history, exceeding even Bill Clinton's 42% advantage in his townhall over GHWB (where Bush checked his watch).
The numbers on Romney/ Obama reflect those of snap opinion polls. According to Gallup, Republicans gave him a 95% win over Obama, Independents picked him, 70%-19%, and even Democrats thought Romney won, 49%-39%.
But wait----does that really matter? Yes, Gallup notes that in the three days following the debate, Romney erased a 5% deficit among registered voters to tie Obama, 47%-47%.
Now those expecting Obama to do much better in the second debate may be disappointed----b/c the second debate is a townhall, which stifles Obama's ability to attack. Audiences want candidates to focus on them and their questions; not on opponents. They also expect a more cordial, personal response----not an unfriendly zinger.
One more thing: This is Day Seven since the first presidential debate wrapped, and some cable shows are still opening w/ debate chat, emphasizing Obama's startling flopola.
That kind of staying power bodes well for Romney----could be a first in today's revolving news cycles.
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HE SAID IT BEST----on REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM-----LV mogul Steve Wynn: "I'm afraid of the president. I have no idea what goofy idea, what crazy, anti-business program this administration will come up. I have no idea. And I have to tell you Jon that every business guy I know in the country is frightened of Barack Obama and the way he thinks. I'll Be Damned If I Want To Have Him Lecture Me."
B-U-M-P!!
Which is also why the ignored, then tried to downplay, the OH early/absentee voting stats that show, I think, Zero will lose big here.
True, but that certainly isn't going to stop them from trying.
Good points, Liz. We can expect most of the questions coming from leftist believers, but that will just reinforce the government dependency problem to most viewers. And Obama will be more than happy to play along with "his" people's wants. Romney, OTOH, needs only to be calm, focus on his vision compared to Obama, and explain how a strong, wealthy America benefits everyone.
The president has stooped lower than any prez before him. He is in the gutter on a good day in his administration, and the sewer on a good day in this campaign. Not that he’s had many good campaign days lately. Hehehehe keep digging RATS!
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