Not surprisingly Democrats are falling behind in enthusiasm as Election Day gets closer

coachisright.com ^ | OCTOBER 9TH, 2012 | Kevin "Coach" Collins

[jmaroneps37]

A just released Politico/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll (PGWUBTP) says Barack Obama is leading 49/48 a statistical tie reached before The Debate. That is the extent of the good news for Obama. This is another poll whose underpinnings fall short of delivering hard data to justify a lead for Obama.

Here is the really bad news for Obama: Democrats who Rasmussen reports are registered at a rate 2.6% less than Republicans (in 2010 Republicans enjoyed an edge of 1.3% and the roof fell in on the Democrats) are only 73% “extremely likely” to vote.

Republicans who are sitting on that lead already are 86% “extremely likely” to vote.

This produces an actual lead of 52/46 for Mitt Romney among those “extremely likely” to vote a 9 point swing in his favor in the last two weeks when Obama was “leading” 50/47.

“But how is Obama doing among his key voting blocs?”

White voters who will make up 2/3 of voters favor Romney by 15% and are 82% “extremely likely” to vote.

By contrast PGWUBTP’s survey message said this about other major groups, “only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do.

And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.” This is not good for Obama and his Party.

Then there is the question of how “independents” will vote. PGWUBTP answered…… decisively.

Its findings revealed independent voters favor Romney by 16 points 51/35 which is an improvement of 4 points in just one week. This is a number that has held steady for at least a month.

The 14 point of “undecided” voters suggests that when the votes are finally counted Romney will get over 60% of this bloc’s votes.

[jmaroneps37]

The smallest enthusiasm gap now acknowledged by the Democrats' media cheerleaders is 13 points. Combined with the registration edge of 2.6% and new registrations on line everyday this is a huge factor.

[American Constitutionalist]

( * Not surprisingly Democrats are falling behind in enthusiasm as Election Day gets closer * )


Needs more Big Bird.

[apillar]

What should really scare the democrats is that the two weeks following the first debate is when early voting really starts in earnest, so by the time Obama even has a chance to “stage a comeback” half of early votes may already be cast. It is even possible for him to move back into a slight lead after the final debate and still lose the election because of early voting. Ironic since early voting was suppose to be democrats ace in the hole.