Website That Filters Party Bias Out of Presidential Polls has Romney Up 5-11% Nationally

Reaganite Republican ^ | Reaganite Republican

[Reaganite Republican]

Rasmussen Reports has long been the most credible of polling agencies- the record speaks for itself. Part of this famed accuracy springs from the fact that as they are not a part of the liberal media establishment in this country, and also because Rasmussen extrapolates polling data from only those intending to vote in November... not merely 'registered voters' or 'adults' as so many others do, a technique that consistently distorts results to the political left. 

Obviously, this means talking to only people likely to affect the upcoming election, producing accurate predictions that skewing MSM spinmeisters can never hope to match... because they're not even trying to do so.

But yet another common distortion to political polling data has to do with warped party-bias: i.e., where GW Bush won on heavy GOP turnout in an election with a 50/50 party split among voters, the motivation Obama brought to the Left in '08 meant a far-from-usual +7% Democratic advantage at the polls. 

Alas, a recent CBS poll result that showed the president up by three points was accomplished by utilizing a highly-improbable-in-reality +13% Democrat advantage in turnout... no agenda there, eh.

It gets worse, Gallup was bullied by Axelrod for disclosing unkind realities, and the polling organization is directly employed by the White House as a 'consultant'... paid for with your tax dollars.

In a microcosm of the larger state-run MSM media as a whole, Rasmussen's generally-more-favorable to Republicans data has them often labeled by disingenuous 'progressives' as biased and 'a tool of the RNC'... when in reality, they -like Fox- are the only ones not licking Dear Leader's rear-end, and thus appear downright reactionary when awash in a sea of Leftist hacks.

So, now a new website has popped up that re-injects survey data from the major (biased) polls into the more-reality-bound Rasmussen model, and lo-and-behold Mitt Romney comes out as much as 11 points up in major nationwide polls... how bout that:

UnSkewed Polling Data Monday, September 24, 2012 4:59:25 PM
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Obama(D)	Romney(R)	Spread
UnSkewed Avg.	9/4 - 9/20	--	--	44.0	51.8	Romney +7.8
Reason/Rupe	9/13 - 9/17	787 LV	4.3	45.0	52.0	Romney +7
Reuters/Ipsos	9/12 - 9/20	1437 LV	2.9	44.0	54.0	Romney +10
NBC News/WSJ	9/12 - 9/16	736 LV	3.6	44.0	51.0	Romney +7
Monmouth Univ.	9/13 - 9/16	1344 LV	2.5	45.0	50.0	Romney +5
QStarNews	9/10 - 9/15	2075	3.0	44.0	55.0	Romney +11
NY Times/CBS News	9/8 - 9/12	1162 LV	3.0	44.0	51.0	Romney +7
Democracy Corps	9/8 - 9/12	1000 LV	3.1	43.0	52.0	Romney +8
Fox News	9/9 - 9/11	1056 LV	3.0	45.0	48.0	Romney +3
Wash. Post/ABC News	9/7 - 9/9	826 LV	4.0	45.0	52.0	Romney +7
CNN/ORC	9/7 - 9/9	875 RV	3.5	45.0	53.0	Romney +8
IBD/CSM/TIPP	9/4 - 9/9	808 RV	3.5	41.0	50.0	Romney +9
ARG	9/4 - 9/6	1200 LV	3.0	43.0	53.0	Romney +10

The same methods produce an approval-disapproval for the President at 53-44%, a nine-point spread that's been feverishly buried by the MSM over the previous months.

Do keep in mind that what residual independents there are will never go for the incumbent in such a race, if history is any indicator... those willing to break for Obama will have done so by now. Therefore, an Obama polling less than 50% is in big, big trouble... just what we need to produce the sort of resounding GOP victory that can render the Left's diabolical schemes for voter fraud and bad-faith legal wrangling ineffective- and rid ourselves of this sinister regime once-and-for-all.

Doug Ross @ Journal  Rasmussen  unskewed.com  InDefenseOfLiberty

Maggie's Notebook  PJ Tattler   h/t Drudge   Baloo

[kevkrom]

I think I saw elsewhere that 2008 was D+7 and 2010 was even in terms of turnout, though the latter is inferred since they don’t have the degree of exit polling they would have in a Presidential election year.

[Former Proud Canadian]

For various reasons, many stated here, I have always felt that Romney support was under reported by 10% to 15%. This article confirms it. Romney is way ahead and will win in a landslide.

[Wordkraft]

So...if this is accurate you can be sure that Zero knows that his days are numbered. What would you say the odds are that a “national crisis” is in the offing that will require Zero to, “For the safety of the people,” call off the November election?

Personally, I put the odds at more than 50/50 that voting will be “postponed.”

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

-—— . I can’t imagine how fired up they will be come November 6th. I know I am. I’d crawl over hot coals or broken glass to vote for R/R to oust O. -——

I’ve been waiting four years for this day. Broken glass and kneecaps won’t stop me.

[Pete]

I would love to see this applied to previous elections and then compared to the ultimate result.

[Qwackertoo]

Wow, even in 2010. Seems I recall over 600+ R’s were elected national and statewide in 2010. IF it was even, we had a LOT of I’s and even some Dem’s voting R in 2010.

Tea Party sure has been quiet this year. No Tea Party Express, certainly not three tours like there was in ‘08.

Wonder why?

[thingumbob]

That is what we all know is happening, the polls, except for one or two, are propaganda machines owned and skewed to the dark side.

or in the case of the Gallup polling...been threatened by Hack-elrod....

[Hotlanta Mike]

It’s going to a tsunami...with many dems staying home it will help the downticket GOP candidates particularly for Senate.

[InterceptPoint]

It might be interesting to see what Rass’ own likely voter model is, compared to the most recent party ID numbers.
+++++++++++++
Indeed it would. I’ve been poking Freeperville for weeks trying to learn about the Raz Turnout Model. I keep hoping some Freeper out there actually has the data.

So far, no luck.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Personally, I put the odds at more than 50/50 that voting will be “postponed.”

All that would do is ensure further chaos, a power vacuum, and a leadership black hole as per the Constitution his Presidency turns into a pumpkin on Jan. 20.

[exist]

There will be a Democratic advantage because of the illegals, bums, dead people, and cheating liars that stuff ballots and vote multiple times.

You are dreaming if you don’t think the Dems will have at least 3-5% advantage with their cheating.

[Wordkraft]

“Personally, I put the odds at more than 50/50 that voting will be “postponed.”

All that would do is ensure further chaos, a power vacuum, and a leadership black hole as per the Constitution his Presidency turns into a pumpkin on Jan. 20.”

Very true - IF - the courts give it their OK. The Constitution has already been ignored by this junta. The MSM will applaud such a move.

[Wordkraft]

“Personally, I put the odds at more than 50/50 that voting will be “postponed.”

All that would do is ensure further chaos, a power vacuum, and a leadership black hole as per the Constitution his Presidency turns into a pumpkin on Jan. 20.”

Very true - UNLESS - the courts give it their OK. The Constitution has already been ignored by this junta. The MSM will applaud such a move.

[ducttape45]

ping

[Bob]

That being said, you rarely hear a good word being said about Obama, rarely see a yard sign or even a bumper sticker. I think a lot of these folks are keeping their mouths shut to keep the shop steward off their backs, but at the end of the day they are quietly gonna vote Romney.

Even here in the deep, deep blue South SF Bay Area, my bumper sticker count as of today is 3 Romney and only 1 Obama. Last election, it seemed that every other car was sporting an Obama 2008 sticker and there were very few, if any, McCain stickers. That's not the case this time around.

[Reaganite Republican]

All that would do is ensure further chaos, a power vacuum, and a leadership black hole as per the Constitution his Presidency turns into a pumpkin on Jan. 20.”

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

“Very true - IF - the courts give it their OK. The Constitution has already been ignored by this junta. The MSM will applaud such a move.”

---

Deeply disturbing- yet rings true. The 1.2B DHS ammo buy should be enough to frighten anyone

[Nabber]

“I’ve been poking Freeperville for weeks trying to learn about the Raz Turnout Model. I keep hoping some Freeper out there actually has the data. So far, no luck.”

I have seen the Rasmussen “weighting model” but only for this past June. Dem weighting ran from +3 to +14 for the 30 days in June, jumping around. Not sure how Rasmussen comes up with that. It was on an FR thread.

[IWONDR]

“Even here in the deep, deep blue South SF Bay Area, my bumper sticker count as of today is 3 Romney and only 1 Obama. Last election, it seemed that every other car was sporting an Obama 2008 sticker and there were very few, if any, McCain stickers. That’s not the case this time around.”

I hope that is not false hope you are interpreting. could the dearth of BO bumper stickers be because people are embarrassed to be seen supporting the loser-in-chief?

Pray for America that after 4 years, BHO and company can be assigned to the trash can of history.

[Bob]

I hope that is not false hope you are interpreting. could the dearth of BO bumper stickers be because people are embarrassed to be seen supporting the loser-in-chief?

While that's certainly possible, the enthusiasm of 2008 for Obama (almost like he was the Second Coming) doesn't seem to be evident this time around. Perhaps people are embarrassed but will vote for him anyway. Hopefully, they'll just stay home.

[redtetrahedron]

“Unskewed is using Rassmussen’s latest party ID numbers to re-weight the other polls.”

So why don’t Rassmussen’s polls show the same thing?