Obama Will Lose in November Based on Two Key Economic Indicators

http://libertarian-neocon.blogspot.com/2012/06/obama-will-lose-in-november-based-on.html ^ | libertarian neocon

[libertarian neocon]

Over the last almost 50 years, two economic indicators, have done a great job predicting the vote share of incumbents in Presidential elections (note I used vote share vs. the main opponent to adjust out the third party candidacies), real GDP growth and consumer confidence. Each has a correlation of 0.8 with vote share and each suggest that Obama will not be able to get 50% in a two way race with Romney.

Let's start with real GDP growth (more precisely, real quarterly GDP growth compared to the prior year during the quarter prior to the election):

As you can see, this is a pretty good indicator, with all the relatively deviations from the trend having great explanations. LBJ did better than expected because JFK had just been assassinated the year before, George H.W. Bush did worse because of Perot's outrageously successful 3rd party challenge that siphoned off votes and Ford did worse because of the Watergate fiasco.It suggests that Obama will likely get about 48% of the vote in November, with a full 1% more GDP growth necessary to cross the 50% threshold.  That is a pretty tall order given that Obamacare was just affirmed (with all of its job killing taxes and regulations), the upcoming fiscal cliff (taxes increase by 3.4% of GDP in January) and China & Europe are slowing down.  If anything, there is a good chance our economy will worsen, putting Obama even deeper in the hole.

Now let's take a look at consumer confidence:

As you can see, based on the abysmal University of Michigan consumer confidence readings, Obama is likely to get only 42% of the vote.  That's what happens when consumers are more unhappy under your administration than they were under Carter! 

It seems the only way Obama can continue his reign of terror is by either stealing the election or bombing Iran in October (to get a patriotic boost).

[scooby321]

The Economy is over as issue

It will not get better by Election

This is about Obama Care and the lying Democrats who today are claimng its not a tax

[DuncanWaring]

How do the charts look when you normalize for industrial-scale voter fraud?

[libertarian neocon]

“The Economy is over as issue

It will not get better by Election

This is about Obama Care and the lying Democrats who today are claimng its not a tax”

I think Obamacare is what energizes the base and gets it away from the Gary Johnson’s etc. The economy is still what will drive “moderates” and “independents”.

[kabar]

Or rapidly changing demographics. We don’t have the same electorate even as late as 10 years ago.

[libertarian neocon]

“How this communists black piece of garbage could get so many Americans to support him is a reflection that millions of Americans are ignorant fools.”

I think its more about the fact that with 47% of the people not paying net federal income taxes, new spending programs dont have a direct negative impact on them as they wont be paying for them anyway. They are incentivized to elect these friggin communists who dont care about America, only their own power.

[Hotlanta Mike]

The Economy is over as issue
It will not get better by Election

---

The economy is NOT over as an issue. Obamacare exacerbates the economy, particularly small businesses. There’ll be no hiring gains between now and the November elections. Unemployment will rise. And Obama’s chickens will come home to roost.

[AngelesCrestHighway]

“It seems the only way Obama can continue his reign of terror is by either stealing the election’...

As this A$$wipe gets more desperate to keep his butt in the White House, stealing the election is of course possible. After all, his healthcare disaster was passed fraudulently. Nothing is beneath him. Chicago style politics screws America...!

[albie]

Does this “indicator” take into account Martial Law? Massive voter fraud? Dead people voting? Dems voting 7-10 times? An EO that states that the election has been cancelled? 24 million “new” illegal alien voters? No? Didn’t think so.

[Psycho_Bunny]

It is highly unlikely Obama is going to lose.

[karnage]

Sadly, I agree.

[arthurus]

Another economic indicator is at odds has Obama winning in November with whtêr margin he or his henchies deems appropriate. That indicator is the Soros investment interest in SCYTL the foreign owned company that has the contract to count the votes offshore in November.

[arthurus]

Another economic indicator is at odds with the charts and has Obama winning in November with whtever margin he or his henchies deems appropriate. That indicator is the Soros investment interest in SCYTL the foreign owned company that has the contract to count the votes offshore in November.

[GregoTX]

The only "Economic Factors" that matter are promises of more Robin Hood attacks on what generates wealth.

Voters want more subsidies, government dependance, bureaucratic regulation of their lives, less personal responsibility, celebrities in office, more illegal aliens and race based politics.

[Kenny Bunk]

The Women,(65%)
The Utes,(85%)
The Hispanics, (75% of legal vote... 100% of huge illegal vote)
The African-Americans, (98.6%)
The Sexually Off-Center, (85%)
The Jews,(80% and Israel be damned)
Hollywood,(98%)
The MSM, (99%)
Industrial-Scale Fraud (stolen from another poster so sue me ... 119% turnout in Madison WI))

VS

Common Sense.

No contest in the big states. My Favorite Marxist Mulatto MF from Mombasa could even win this without taking the popular vote!

This, fellows and girls is going to be one hell of an election. We have to win because Australia says I am too old to immigrate.