Report: Chance of a Catastrophic Solar Storm Is 1 in 8

SHTF Plan ^ | 3/6/12 | Mac Slavo

[Kartographer]

Via: On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events

Key Points

Probability of a Carrington event occurring over next decade is ~12% Space physics datasets often display a power-law distribution Power-law distribution can be exploited to predict extreme events By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds)…

…

By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event occurring within the next decade is ∼12%.

[Kartographer]

Lights OUT!

[Kartographer]

Preppers PING!

[Cold Heart]

Just got my PC back from repairs of damage caused by malware/hacking. Luckily I have lots of reference books. I actually blew dust off of them before looking things up. Definetly not as handy as the internet search but when the power is off they still work.

[WoofDog123]

it could happen, and would be the end of most of what we know as civilization. if you aren’t set up for living in the late 19/early 20th century, you could be in deadly trouble. if you are, and aren’t prepared to hold off those who aren’t, it could be just as bad.

end of the world shit if you live in the west.

[meatloaf]

One government report says the power in some areas might not be restored for four to ten years.

[oldenuff2no]

end of the world shit if you live in the west.

How do you figure that??? Most of the west is actually farming and ranching country. We get along well without the city folks. We are well armed and well prepared to take care of ourselves. It sounds like you think the west is all LA and SF.

[null and void]

No power, no water.

[bgill]

12% isn’t good odds.

BTW, our cable tv was all screwy yesterday and last night. Don’t know if that was in anyway related to the solar flare or a coincidence of the generally poor service.

[Marcella]

I have prepped since 1998 and updated equipment as better products came on the market. I have written 20+ articles on a survival website. Anyone interested in these articles can Freepmail me for instructions how to get to those articles.

I can lock my front door right now and live for a very long time and be comfortable.

[WoofDog123]

lots of reasons - people living in the country for the most part aren’t already organized to deal with large-scale incursions. also, if it is bad enough, the military may present a problem if they decide to take possession of suspected stockpiles or other facilities. The army is going to eat, no matter what anyone else does.

some geographic areas might do fine, but the country as a whole, both geographically and population-wise, wouldn’t.

[cornfedcowboy]

Question: How many minutes warning would we have before the radiation hit our atmosphere? Wouldn’t want to be on an airplane at that time.

[Godzilla]

Sources to monitor solar activity

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html

[COBOL2Java]

Question: How many minutes warning would we have before the radiation hit our atmosphere? Wouldn’t want to be on an airplane at that time.

Hey! You might come back with some cool powers!

[Kartographer]

It is my understanding that satilites pick up an x-ray brust first because Xrays travel at the speed of light (about 8 minutes from Sun to Earth) the ejection itself travels between 20km/s to 3200km/s.

That’s about 87 days on the slow end and 13 hours for one traveling at the max 3200km/s.

[oldenuff2no]

No power, no water Windmills, wood stoves, solar panels, roof mounted wind generators, and small scale hydro, (water wheel driven)with plenty of clean water from different streams for drinking and irrigation, and animal power. Horses and mules to farm with. The ability to use a forge, a great collection of hand tools, and the knowledge to use them. Gun smithing training and experience, a fully stoked commercial reloading facility will keep us in ammo. Mainly good neighbors, many of them vets, who are well set up, well armed, and of a mind to protect what is ours.
We already have good food storage and for the most part live off the grid. Are we preppers?? Not really, we just live way out in the country and take care of ourselves.
Right now, this minute, if I called the cops and told them someone was shooting at me it would take over 45 minutes for anyone to respond. We are armed and already take care of any violent threats. If something bad happens to our society the city folks will not find help here. They will not be invited, wanted, or tolerated.

[oldenuff2no]

No power, no water Windmills, wood stoves, solar panels, roof mounted wind generators, and small scale hydro, (water wheel driven)with plenty of clean water from different streams for drinking and irrigation, and animal power. Horses and mules to farm with. The ability to use a forge, a great collection of hand tools, and the knowledge to use them. Gun smithing training and experience, a fully stoked commercial reloading facility will keep us in ammo. Mainly good neighbors, many of them vets, who are well set up, well armed, and of a mind to protect what is ours.
We already have good food storage and for the most part live off the grid. Are we preppers?? Not really, we just live way out in the country and take care of ourselves.
Right now, this minute, if I called the cops and told them someone was shooting at me it would take over 45 minutes for anyone to respond. We are armed and already take care of any violent threats. If something bad happens to our society the city folks will not find help here. They will not be invited, wanted, or tolerated.

[null and void]

A lot depends on where “in the west” you are. If you have streams it’s way different than most of the desert southwest or central valley where water doesn’t freely flow.

You are prudent enough and well located enough to be OK.

[oldenuff2no]

Your knowledge of the geography of the west and the availability of resources is limited. Most of the water supply in Ca, north of LA comes from the higher elevations of central and northern ca. There are thousands of streams and several rivers that flow into the lower country. There are many farms and ranches that irrigate directly from those water sources. Everything I hear is the arrogant attitude that we who live in these areas somehow need the beehive socialist societies of the cities. No, they need the water we send them. They need the electricity that flows through the power lines that cross our farms and ranches. They need the food that we grow. We are already self sufficient. We need them to buy our products but when money has no value and deliveries are not possible then those people are no longer an asset and instantly become a threat. We will still have food water and a toilet that flushes. If anything big happens to this country, that is not localized to one area, the city people are royally screwed. They will have no water, no power, and no sewage flow. They will be out of food in 4 days and killing each other for the scraps in a week. There will be no help from the outside. Many will leave in hopes they can find food and water somewhere else. They will become refugees. As they leave the cities and enter other counties they will soon understand that the local sheriff has the responsibility to his own people, not them. The local sheriff will not allow hundreds of thousands of refugees to invade those counties and become his burden. They will either stop them from coming in or make them keep going down the road and out of their counties. The refugees will not be greeted with open arms full of food and water. The areas they pass through will be full of well armed people in defensive positions protecting what they have. If you believe anything else you have a crack habit.
If you live in any big city and have a brain in your head you will quietly make preparation for at least 30 of self sufficiency. Own and become proficient with the firearms that your local officials allow you to have. If something bad does happen stay in place, keep your head down, your mouth shut, and hope the hungry mobs done't come for what you have. I am a retired AB Ranger. I have seen this same refugee situation several times. It is about as ugly as anything people can be involved in. No one wants to see hungry thirsty people with no hope. More so than that they do not want their family to be in that same situation. Keep moving there is nothing for you here.

[oldenuff2no]

The military will not be a factor this far out. They too are going to have logistical problems with fuel, food, and water. They have their own storage of fuel, rations and water but will not be sharing those with the mobs either. The active duty military will not be wasting their precious and limited resources to make sure you have breakfast in the morning. Their resupply and support systems are not going to be working either. The local military are the national guard. The members of those units are our sons and daughters. Do you really think they will be on the other side? As their fathers and grand fathers are, they are seasoned fighters and will be all about taking care of their families. In some cases of heavy attack on our country the DEFCON order will come for many active duty military units to disperse and reform in another area or to go home. Another interesting fact is that it is our sons and daughters who have the keys to the local armories.
The truth is that we depend on ourselves for almost everything now. We are much better prepared to be off the grid, feed ourselves, and protect ourselves than any other civilian population in this country. We support and help each other every day in work and in play. We know our neighbors well and barter between ourselves for different skills and work time constantly. The next organizational step isn’t that big for us. We don’t have to “plan” to live that way, we live that way now.

[WoofDog123]

I think I see part of the misunderstanding we have. I said end of the world if you live in the west - I mean the western world, western europe north america etc.

My comments should be viewed in that context. I realize now you are talking about the western US, which certainly may be the best place to be in such a scenario, but I was not singling out a particular part of north america at all.