Posted on 02/06/2012 9:00:17 AM PST by DeaconBenjamin
Reader Tim Wallace writes
Hello Mish
As I have been telling you recently, there is some unprecedented data coming out in petroleum distillates, and they slap me in the face and tell me we have some very bad economic trends going on, totally out of line with such things as the hopium market - I mean stock market.
This past week I actually had to reformat my graphs as the drop off peak exceeded my bottom number for reporting off peak - a drop of ALMOST 4,000,000 BARRELS PER DAY off the peak usage in our past for this week of the year.
I have added a new graph to my distillates report, a "Graph of Raw Data" to which I have added a polynomial trendline. You can easily see that the plunge is accelerating and more than rivals 2008/09 and in gasoline is greatly exceeding the rate.
An amazing thing to note is that in two out of the last three weeks gasoline usage has dropped below 8,000,000 barrels per day.
The last time usage fell that low was the week of September 21, 2001! And you know what that week was! Prior to that you have to go back to 1996 to have a time period truly consistently below 8,000. We have done it two out of the last three weeks.
The second graph once again shows the year on year change in usage of distillates. The Obama "stimulus" package and Fed monetary actions masked the underlying systemic problems.
The third and final graph shows the changes in usage off the peak year of 2007. Once again you can see the effect of the stimulus and how now we are heading below 2008/09 in an accelerating fashion.
Looking at these numbers I believe we are about to have a surge in unemployment - by the end of April latest, possibly as early as beginning of March.
Tim
Petroleum Distillates and Gasoline Usage in Barrels per Day
Note that on a best curve fit, petroleum usage is back to 1997 level and gasoline usage is back to 2001 level. Moreover, as Wallace points out, two out of the last three weeks gasoline usage has dropped below 8,000,000 barrels per day.
Year-Over-Year Petroleum and Gasoline Usage (Compared to Peak Usage)
Note the trough of the recent recession, the rebound, and now a sudden plunge in gasoline and petroleum usage once again.
Decline from Peak Usage
A mild winter can explain part of the drop in petroleum usage (heating oil), but it does not explain the declines in gasoline usage or the overall trends.
It's working!
The more ya make, the more they take...It just feeds the monster.
This will push the fed.gov to “justify” pushing a “by-the-mile” road use tax in all states. Monitoring will be by GPS devices. All data must go to the fed.gov for accurate billing.
Of course, knowing the exact location and tracking all moment will be “coincidental” would never be abused by the feds.
Never. Just ask them.
.
See, green does work! This is the result of all those Chevy Volts!
Me, I can’t afford the gas to drive to the grocery store so the car stays in the garage.
Movement.
I just luvvvvv spell check...
.
Well, I think some part of this can be explained in the following ways:
1. No question, the average fleet MPG of US cars has gone up, even with new car purchasing at a lower level.
2. In the long run, people are taking commuting to work or to potential work very seriously in choosing where they live.
And our trainee president is getting better as he goes. See how he is preserving energy and saving the environment? America is standing still, taking a break.
prices @ the pump should be plunging. i’ve been anxiously awaiting it, because I buy 65 gallons a week. it’s simple supply and demand
So they will raise prices once again and Rush and Hannity will tell us how we should be feeling sorry for the difficult times facing the oil companies.
At this time I have only used one third of the oil I contracted for this year
It also doesn’t explain why I’m paying 30 cents more a gallon than I was two weeks ago. Sadly.
In reporting data, Natural Gas Liquids (ethane, propane, butane) are included but Methane (consumer/pipeline quality natural gas) is not included.
See the link below for the breakdown of usuage.
Petroleum Product Supplied
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_m.htm
That’s strange. Wonder why the price at the pump has risen 35 cents in the last week ...
25 years after giving up riding a motorcycle, I bought one this winter and am riding it every chance I get. I am saving many, many bucks on gas and I don’t drive that much to start with since I am retired and don’t have to go to work every day.
I remember in the good old days when a warm winter meant cheap diesel in the spring.
This is why gas prices have gone up:
http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-gas-prices-20120130,0,3885077.story
Yea! We're saved! Thank you President Obama!
I wonder how much of the price rise at the pump is due to congress ending the ethanol subsidies but is still mandating that the oil companies add it to the gasoline?
The gov’t needs to be put in a Faraday Cage.
Incorrect explaination...The #1 export for the USA in 2011?
http://forums.motortrend.com/70/9029124/the-drive-in/us-1-export-in-2011wasfuelwho-would-have-thought/index.html
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