Posted on 01/23/2012 10:22:32 AM PST by Shout Bits
Rep. Ron Paul is running stronger than any other libertarian GOP candidate ever, including his own several bids. Still, everyone, even he, knows that Paul will not become President. Paul's various stump and post-election speeches never allude to his governance, only the message he and his liberty minded supporters are sending to the Washington establishment. Campaigning is hard work for a 76-year-old, so why does Paul do it? Paul wants a seat at the RNC table, maybe a prime time slot for his son, and if they know what is good for them, they should oblige.
If Paul continues to fight and win about 11-15% of the popular vote, Shout Bits estimates that he will win a maximum of 100 delegates from a system rigged to favor the front-runner. Even if Gingrich and Romney split their delegates, Paul would be an unlikely king maker due to the 165 unbound RNC delegates. The RNC fat-cats would use their muscle to overcome any Paul action it finds impolitic (which essentially means Gingrich or Santorum must beat Romney by several hundred delegates to actually win the nomination). So, Paul can't use his clout to buy a cabinet seat veto, let alone an appointment for himself or his son.
Paul knows he will never wield any heavy power in Washington. He knows that the RNC barely tolerates his daily attacks on their big-government-equals-big-donations money machine. The GOP establishment is openly hostile to his no-interventionist foreign policy and personal-liberty-trumps-all drug policy. Still, polls show that for every Paul vote, another voter supports him but tactically chooses to support a more electable candidate. Indeed, one poll shows that in a two man general matchup, Paul is within a few points of Pres. Obama, despite the huge recognition gap.
One in five Republicans identify with a liberty first message. Just as important, Paul has a passionate youth base that the GOP must maintain to avoid slipping into irrelevancy. Paul's message also resonates with independents who see Washington and its twin parties as corrupt. If the RNC ignores Paul's delegates, they will shout his name at the convention to stop the show on live TV.
If the RNC wants to satisfy a substantial part of its base, attract independents, and get some of the youth vote, it must deal with Paul by giving him a prime-time slot at the RNC. Still, Paul is a lightning rod, and the Old Time Media will have a field day with his newsletters from 35 years ago. Paul would be wise to give his son Sen. Rand Paul the microphone. Sen. Paul carries almost no baggage, yet he has the respect of his father's followers. If the liberty movement is to gain mainstream power within the GOP, Sen. Paul is the best bet.
Look for Ron Paul to fight for delegates through Super Tuesday. He was in office during Gingrich's collapse, so he knows the Speaker's personal failings well. Look for Paul to barter a Romney endorsement for an off-hour speech for himself and a prime-time slot for his son. Anything less by the RNC is dismissing a large and highly motivated segment of the GOP base. If the GOP is to avoid the fate of the Whigs, it needs the liberty movement and the Pauls.
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Rand Paul should be offered the VP slot.
Should negate any reason to give Wrong Paul a prime-time slot.
Ron Paul is a liberal. And the Republican Party deserves all the grief they get because they allowed a liberaltarian to stink up the GOP stage.
But to say Paul will be a kingmaker?
IBTZ.
And how many of those are liberal wingnut crossovers in open primaries?
Paul is not a serious candidate. And accordingly, he should not be treated seriously.
I like small government advocacy but...
I can’t tell the difference between Ron Paul’s foreign policy pronouncements and islamic terrorist propaganda. Or Chomskyite reflexive hate-america propaganda.
Rep. Paul is running to lay the groundwork for Sen. Paul to run in a few years.... I expect that to happen in 2016.
If the RNC wants Paul to go away, all they have to do is convince him they will do just that....along with ending the IRS and the paper mill known as the "Reserve" bank, which the IRS collateralizes.
More like the party jester, or cult leader.
I did see one old guy refer to Paul as a ‘anti-establishment honey trap’ who serves the purpose of keeping the anti-government fringe appeased by thinking they have representation (and have a single point of collecting their names).
The RNC Should Give Paul What He Wants
Otherwise we won’t have a chance with the pro-Al Qaeda 9/11 Truther crowd.
There are plenty of carrots that can be dangled for Paul’s support, most notably his positions on the Federal Reserve. No way is he endorsing Romney.
Yeah, we should really give a liberal nut case such as Ron Paul a larger voice to proclaim his nut case Anti-Israel, antisemitic, pro dingbat politics.
Let’s say “Give Paul what he wants that we agree with”. If I were Newt I’d put him in some role where he can lead the cutting of $1 trillion from the budget, anything that can be done with executive orders, git er done.
I'm not a big fan of Ron Paul, but what about the problems inherent in the GOP itself: RINO's, the claim of being a party for conservatives only when it is convenient, instances of going along to maintain the status quo, etc.
Unfortunately, there needs to be a shake-up in the political system but it also isn't going to happen by Ron Paul, it needs more of a catalyst. It is the "two-party" which is helping to destroy America. I could care less about a "GOP" stage, I'm concerned about a Conservative stage. The two (GOP & Conservatism) are no longer synonomous with one another.
You’re correct. “ If I were Newt I’d put him in some role where he can lead the cutting of $1 trillion from the budget, anything that can be done with executive orders, git er done.”
The key phrase is - “Paul knows he will never wield any heavy power in Washington. He knows that the RNC barely tolerates his daily attacks on their big-government-equals-big-donations money machine...”
It’s all about power and money.
Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich have something in common, please note:
“When Speaker Gingrich allowed Representative John R. Kasich of Ohio, the budget committee chairman, to try to rally House Republicans around a conservative blueprint for more than $100 billion in new savings, the moderates refused to back it.”
It was those in Congress feeding off of Uncle Sam who forced Speaker Gingrich from government service.
And right now, at this time it is cutting off the lobbyists and turning off the faucet of money (lucrative government contracts) that is terrifying the members of Congress.
After debates I’ve noticed that Gingrich and Paul will chat; hopefully, at some time in the near future they will get together and strike a deal.
He is going to have something to say regarding the Republican platform and message. The smart thing to do would be to show him support for his domestic policies with which we agree on condition that he does not push his flawed foreign policies.
He’s running to teach us a lesson?
Dear Ron; my Dad passed away and you aren’t half the man he was. I don’t need you to try and be my Dad and teach me a lesson. Run if you want to be President. Don’t run for any other reason. You’re just intentionally screwing things up then, and you should go and hang your head in shame.
>>...Paul has a passionate youth base...<<
Well, they certainly appear passionate about LEGAL-WEED. But on other social, fiscal and defense matters, I haven’t seen his web-ified, passionate youth supporters voicing too much interest. Of course, I only see the ones who make the goofy-news-segments so I might not be fully informed on Paul’s younger supporters.
Still, I’d bet if the RNC suddenly took a “LEGAL WEED-COKE-METH-HEROIN FOR ALL” stance, they would likely attract the support of a “youth” or three. But I don’t think that support be worth it.
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