Posted on 12/15/2011 6:50:51 PM PST by blam
Are We At The Beginning Of A 25-Year Recession?
The world economy faced a similar slump in the 19th Century. And it wasn't pretty
posted on December 15, 2011, at 10:39 AM
Our currency economic crisis has some troubling historic parallels with the "Long Depression" that began afflicting America in the 1870s.
The current economic slump won't end any time soon, says Matthew Lynn in MarketWatch. The current crisis eerily resembles one that brought the financial world to its knees in the 1870s. A new industrial power — back then it was Germany, now it's China — had rocketed to the forefront, "blowing apart old industries." Financial markets had been deregulated. Cheap money was everywhere. The "almighty crash" that followed triggered what came to be known as the Long Depression, "a period of volatility, unemployment, and slumps that lasted an epic 23 years." If the aftermath of the crash of 2008 turns out like that, Lynn says, we're stuck like this until 2031. Could we really be in for such a long, painful ride?
Unfortunately, it really might take years to rebound: "Historical parallels are never precise," says Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway, as Lynn concedes. But the similarities between the Long Depression and our Great Recession are "rather sobering." At the very least we should acknowledge there might be "a prolonged period of economic upheaval ahead that may be far beyond the ability of any government or Central Bank to control." Food for thought, "if you're in the mood to panic a little."
Relax, not all our nightmares will come true: The doomsayers have plenty of reasons to worry, says Rick Newman in U.S. News. Europe's financial meltdown could burn the U.S.; war with Iran could disrupt oil supplies; Congress' fumbling could get the government's credit rating knocked down another notch. But "overwrought fears tend to produce relief rallies if the worst doesn't actually happen," so 2012 could turn out to be a good year for everyone from homebuyers to "stingy shoppers."
With any luck, gridlock will save us: A lot of people are wringing their hands because Washington isn't doing enough to rescue the economy, says syndicated columnist Thomas Sowell in the St. Augustine, Fla., Record. But if you compare instances when the government butted in during previous slumps (the Great Depression) to cases where it let the free market sort things out (the 1987 stock crash), "doing nothing has by far the better track record." Maybe gridlock helps things turn around more quickly than the pessimists think.
“At the very least we should acknowledge there might be “a prolonged period of economic upheaval ahead that may be far beyond the ability of any government or Central Bank to control.” Food for thought”
It’s food that I would have a hard time holding down.
It might very well be food we have a hard time getting in the first place at the current rate of drunken spending.
The difference between this depression and all past depressions is the debt and the crippling debt of social programs.
Add in all those who are not working to the unemployment numbers and we are looking at 60% paying for 50%.
I spoke recently to a pastor in Maine who is one of the driving forces behind the secession movement in Maine. Even he doesn’t seem to understand how bad things are.
The difference between this depression and all past depressions is the debt and the crippling debt of social programs.
Add in all those who are not working to the unemployment numbers and we are looking at 60% paying for 50%.
I spoke recently to a pastor in Maine who is one of the driving forces behind the secession movement in Maine. Even he doesn’t seem to understand how bad things are.
Since it started three years ago, no we are not in the beginning.
This one isn’t going to end. The easy natural resources are all gone.
OK, so they probably can point to some kind of slow growth and not formal recession. But tell that to their stock market and national psyche. And at least the last 20 years they've been able to fund their gov't deficits. As their workforce retires they simply won't be able to buy all the debt their government is issuing. Which means foreigners will need to buy it. Who will not be interested in 1% interest rates. So they face skyrocketing debt costs, an aging and shrinking population, and have no better ideas than to hope armies of androids will be invented to save the day (good luck with that!)
[ Are We At The Beginning Of A 25-Year Recession? ]
Not if the right republican wins..
Some States will remain leftist defacation holes..
But other States will shine like a city set on a hill..
They will expose the holes as politically diseased..
Leftism will crumble when unfunded.. slowly but surely..
Especially as people know its vapid ideology..
And bankrupt accounting..
Yep, NOOT and Romney are gonna rescue us.
NOPE.
And yes, we are starting a 25 year deflationary recession. We’ve already been in one for 10 years, which has been staved off by government spending and an inflationary dollar.
However, the US is at 100 percent debt to GDP, so the see corn’s been spent. So, what now?
1, government spending continues to increase as both a percentage of the economy, and on an absolute basis. This eventually hits the tipping point where more people are paid by the government than are paid by private dollars.
2, government spending gets cut down.
I WAS hoping that the US would elect someone who gets just how bad the current situation is, but with Newt/Romney or Obama, we are guaranteed to see the status quo continue.
What THIS means, is that the can gets kicked down the road. It means that the next 10 years (good for the boomers), should be an ok road, but what happens after?
The higher the debt bill gets, the closer to bankruptcy for the nation as a whole. The US had the advantages (pre Obama), of a low national debt, and a solid population growth. Obama’s doing his best to assail both of these advantages, one, spending unprecedented dollars, and two, by implementing O-Care to bring the birthrate down to european levels.
I had hope for just 4 years of the national nightmare, but it’s clear the train just wants to keep steaming on through.
25? No. It still looks like things will be generally bad with occasional blips of slightly better until around 2017. Then things will improve at a slightly better rate until about 2022. Things should be normal, if boring by then.
The tougher question is whether the PTB can continue to walk the tightrope between deflation and high inflation without falling off to either side.
I’m sure you will all remember this post and realize I am a genius in 2022.
I thank you in advance.
Noot and Romney are both Progressives..
You know like the Clintoons, Obama, Both Bushes, both Roosevelts(r & d) and Wilson..
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