Posted on 12/15/2011 6:55:36 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
A month ago, Rasmussen was one of the first pollsters to pick up on Newt Gingrich’s momentum, showing him up 13 points over Mitt Romney in Iowa, 32/19. If Rasmussen has its finger on the pulse of Iowa voters, that momentum didn’t last long. Today’s Rasmussen poll shows Gingrich losing twelve points since November 15th and falling behind Romney for second place, at 23/20:
Take a look at the stability in Romney’s numbers — and the instability in almost everyone else’s. Scott Rasmussen points this out in the video. The only other candidate who’s had any stability at anything above the signal-noise level is … Ron Paul, who’s back to about where he was in August before Rick Perry and Herman Cain had their bubble moments.
The internals show some interesting points. Gingrich captures 27% of “very conservative” respondents, but Romney gets 17%, good for second place. Romney wins the “somewhat conservative” demo by ten points at 29/19 over Gingrich, and not surprisingly, the “other” category at 22%. Paul comes in second rather than third in this last demo at 19%. Rick Perry ties for third place at 14% among very conservative respondents, falls well back to fourth place at 10% in the intermediate group, and drops to 6% among “others.” If Perry wants to get enough of a bounce to compete in two weeks, he needs to either start grabbing a lot more of Gingrich’s “very conservative” support or look for ways to attract the “somewhats.”
Here’s an interesting note from the internals. For all of the class-warfare bombs being tossed by both Gingrich and Romney, Romney beats Gingrich in every income demographic in Iowa except the $75-100K group. Paul, though, beats both in the under-$20K and $60-75K demos.
Romney also leads among people who have made up their minds, 29% to 22% for both Gingrich and Paul, but he also slightly leads those who could change their mind, too — 22/21 over Gingrich, with Paul third at 17%. Perry only gets 7% while he has 14% among those who could change their minds, which means that he is just beginning to convince people to rethink his candidacy. Time is definitely running out for Perry, in other words. Among those certain to show up at the caucuses, Romney’s lead expands to 25/21 with Paul dropping to 17%, and Romney even leads among those not certain to show up, 20/18/18.
It looks like Gingrich has a momentum problem in Iowa. If he can’t close the deal here, can he remain viable in South Carolina and Florida? It’s possible, but given his large polling advantage just days earlier, I’d be a little skeptical. This looks like a re-evaluation based on the heightened scrutiny of Gingrich’s record, and it seems that voters may be having second thoughts.
:0)
I just sent you here.
LOL
Glad you posted the links to Rush’s interview - it was GREAT!
You can also get the whole thing on Greta’s page of FNC.
I’d call that tanking.
Let the establishment’s republican candidate anal exam begin.
Let’s see how this Northeastern ultra liberal with his socialist ideas will hold up under the media’s microscope. wink...! wink...!
On The Record w Greta VanSusteren
All 3 sections are there.
Thanks!
Uhhhhh...CW didn’t say a word about this poll being a positive for Perry.
She twisted nothing. She posted the poll results and an analysis of them written by Ed Morrissy.
The poll is what it is. A snapshot in time. Showing Gingrich falling back from his original momentum in Iowa.
The other candidates are arrayed as they are shown, at this moment.
Apart from the poll, CW expressed her belief that Perry has a fighting chance in Iowa.
Lord! Save us from these elites; Washington D.C.——Wall Street GOP insiders.
Uhhhhh ... my response was to CW post #2 which showed a picture of someone’s campaign bus ......
Thanks for posting the link to the Rush interview on Greta. I missed it and it was interesting. (by the way, Rush looks better than he has in ages, Katy must have him on a diet again - LOL)
He is always hesitant to endorse, especially early, as he’s been burned twice this session on Cain and gingrich.
But I was glad he singled out Perry, Bachmann and Santorum because of the three Perry is (in my opinion) the only viable candidate left and I think Rush would endorse if he gets some momentum.
Perry has been an okay governor here in Texas-—but he just doesn’t excite me. Whatever, it is what it is and we are obligated to go to the polls and vote for the pubbie nominee, whoever that might turn out to be.
More punditry:
...........”You can now find reputable news sources spinning the polls and the trends to say that things look good for Mr. Romney, Gingrich, Paul (who some believe might even eke out an Iowa win), Perry, and even Jon Huntsman Jr., who is currently polling about 3 percent nationally and isn’t competing in Iowa. (If you’re a Rick Santorum or Michele Bachmann fan, sorry. The field isn’t that wide open.)
Unless he has a fourth-place finish in Iowa and underperforms in New Hampshire, the biggest beneficiary of all the turmoil may be Romney. True, he has a problem convincing three-quarters of Republican primary voters to support him. But if those voters can’t find another candidate to rally behind, his consistency – even though it’s often a second-place consistency – may be what wins the day.”
______________________________________________________
Those holding out hope of a Bachmann or Santorum sustained race going out of Iowa, need to consider that it is Rick Perry who has the war chest to stay and fight.
Conservatives need to start thinking, “Do we want to win?”
If so, it’s time to get behind Gov. Perry.
The window of opportunity (where we can have a voice in this decision) is beginning to close.
Yes. And Perry has the funding and networking in the upcoming states.
Perry has been an excellent governor and a lot of business has come to our state and our economy is humming due to his efforts on tort reform, regulation and taxes (1st governor since WWII to cut spending).
The "pubbies" you speak of are holding out endorsing Perry (many are in Romney's camp). And they tried (Bush-Rove-Hutchison) to unseat him in the last primary -- and lost.
Rick Perry won! He always wins. He wants to win now and take it to Obama.
Obama and his "henchmen" have been taking it to Perry, Texas and all the states (and our allies).
A Perry versus Obama match-up will be one for the books.
You are spot on.
Romney appears to be in the best position, at this point, given the math, even though math also proves Romney is not wanted by 3/4 of the GOP.
If you do not want Gingrich as the standard bearer...and I’m addressing those who don’t...not only ask yourselves whether either Bachmann or Santorum can win the nomination going forward, but also ask yourselves if you believe in your heart of hearts that they belong in that Oval Office with all that comes along with it.
I’m not knocking them for who they have been and are at the moment, what I’m doing is asking you to project forward and give an honest analysis.
Rick Perry is the proven executive, the proven small federal government conservative in this race. Rick Perry is a military veteran. Rick Perry has the funds, and he has the fight in him. He can win the nomination, he can be in that Oval Office.
It’s past time to start rejecting perfect and to go for the good.
The result, otherwise, looks like it could well be Mitt Romney.
Romney as the GOP nominee: the one thing that will depress the base and give us 4 more years of Obama.
We will never recover.
My position is the same that Rush articulated in the interview. The only three consistently conservative candidates remaining in the race are Perry, Santorum and Bachmann. Of those three I feel Perry has the best chance to break out due to his organization and funding. After Perry I think Bachmann is the next most likely.
My problem at this point with Michele is she goes into a shrill attack-dog mode against the other candidates way too frequently. She couldn’t even give another candidate on stage any recognition in the last debate, instead she gave props to Cain as he posed no threat.
Problem/Solution [:30]
I find him too easily manipulated—remember his two biggest boo boos! Good gracious—
Maybe he’s learned something from those two things-—and yes, under his leadership, TX has done okay. My point is that I just don’t find him too exciting.......and I think this upcoming presidential election is the most important one of my lifetime.
Same poll shows OBAMA DISAPPROVAL @ 52%!!!
you’ll see that leading the evening news.....
Polls for next Monday the 19th, will reflect impact of tonight’s Fox debate.
MUCH more important than a 1 poll blip!
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