Newt's Electoral Path to 270 (Shocking Vanity)

270 to win dot com ^ | 12-05-2011 | parksstp

[parksstp]

Electoral Map Showing the Latest on the 2012 Race. Pretty much a 196-196 tie between Safe/Likely Republican States and Safe Obama states with 12 states pretty much deciding the outcome. Of the 12 States, 3 Lean Republican (MO), (VA), (FL), 4 Lean Democrat (PA), (NV), (CO), (MI), and 5 are absolute toss-ups (NH), (IA), (OH), (WI), (NM).

Also speculation on Potential Running mates.

[nathanbedford]

A thorough and first-rate analysis.

In keeping with my rule of thumb which actually overstates the case that the Democrats cannot win if they lose Pennsylvania and the Republicans cannot win if they lose Florida, it puts the selection of the vice presidential nominee starkly in focus. Republicans had better hope that Marco Rubio was not entirely serious when he disclaimed any interest in the VP nomination. Not only will he bring Florida which is critical but he would give the nominee at the top of the ticket a fighting chance to cut into Obama's bulge in the Hispanic voting block. If the Democrats can be cut back between five and 10% among Hispanics, they probably will lose the election.

Incidentally, just this scenario might might have been in the back of Gingrich's mind when he went out of his way to bring up the issue of "amnesty" which he must've known would generate a backlash in the primary.

If Rubio declines, it looks like we should go with Bob McDonnell as a safe generic backup unlikely to make gaffes and who solidifies Virginia, which, however, should be in the bag anyway. Depending on how Santorum can finish the race, he might be considered in the hope that he would bring in Pennsylvania. His record there is mixed, having won in adverse circumstances and having lost in even worse adverse circumstances. It is not clear that he would bring in Pennsylvania and a very careful examination, precinct by precinct, would have to be done to determine his effectiveness.

We seem to have fumbled the ball in Ohio and we really had better work on a ground game there. If we lose Ohio it makes the 270 tally much more difficult. Money should be spent in Ohio just as you say should be done in Wisconsin.

My projection far into the future and therefore subject to events says that the race will look tighter than it actually is and will break before the election decisively, my guess is in the direction of the Republicans, barring an October surprise.

[absolootezer0]

Most blacks and youth are staying HOME.

do you think that's going to prevent their votes from getting made for them?

[Stonewall Jackson]

A very well thought out post. Thank you for sharing your opinion.

Now I'm going to go out on a limb and make my prediction for next year. I think the Republican race will be close for the first few primaries/caucuses before Newt runs away with it by late February. I'm not certain who he will chose as his running mate, but the selection will be made fairly early in the process so that they can get out and do lots of campaigning together and solidify their base.

When the election rolls around next year, Newt will defeat Obama 55% to 41%, with 4% voting for third-party candidates.

Newt will carry AL(9), AK(3), AR(6), AZ(11), CO(9), FL(29), GA(16), IA(6), ID(4), IN(11), KS(6), KY(8), LA(8), MO(11), MS(6), MT(5), NC(15), ND(3), NE(5), NH(4), NM(5), OH(18), OK(7), SC(9), SD(3), TN(11), TX(38), UT(6), VA(13), WI(10), WV(5), and WY(3) for a total of 301 EV's.

Obama will hold onto CA(55), CT(7), DC(3), DE(3), HI(4), IL(20), MA(11), MD(10), NY(29), RI(4), VT(3), and WA(12) for 161 EV's.

Toss up states that might go either way are ME(4), MI(16), MN(10), NJ(14), NV(6), OR(7), and PA(20) for 77 EV's. I think NV and PA will likely go for Newt while the others go for Obama, but they could go either way.

What do you think?

[absolootezer0]

no mention of Cantor for a VP pick?

[Jane Long]

Most blacks and youth are staying HOME.

Ha! They're being replaced by those dead voters. They always get out the vote...twice.

[Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!]

http://www.ncsl.org/default.aspx?tabid=16602

[Lib-Lickers 2]

she’s been our governor for less than a year.. not going to happen.. now Bobby Jindal maybe

[chris_bdba]

That isn’t entirely true.In Ohio you are allowed to vote without photo ID but the only other form is a social security card with either a utility bill with same name and address in the precinct or a current bank statement with address in the same precinct so it isn’t just that anyone can vote without an ID.

[chris_bdba]

True but since we don’t have as many EV’s as Florida does now I think Marco Rubio would be two birds with one stone VP choice....

[SLB]

Don’t think that Newt will take WI. Way too much union power there and they have it in for the Republicans after what happened to them earlier.

[no dems]

Loved your Post #23. From your keyboard to God’s ears.

[no dems]

Out of the 16 possible GOP VP picks listed, the top two listed are my top two choices in that order:
#1. Marco Rubio
#2. Allen West
Both would help carry FL. (If we lose FL, we lose the White house.) And both would help with the minority vote, of which a good number of, we desperately need.

[no dems]

Most blacks and youth are staying HOME.
______________________________________________________________
True. Obozo will still get 95% of the Black vote. There just won’t be as many Blacks voting this time for the following reasons:
#1. They’ve had their Black Prez. The “new” has worn off and the novelty is gone.
#2. Unemployment in the Black Community is 16%.
#3. Blacks are very disillusioned and pi**ed off at Obozo becasue he has not delivered for the brothas like they thought he would.

Just sayin’ .

[no dems]

See Post #5.

[no dems]

Most blacks and youth are staying HOME.

Keep telling yourself that.
______________________________________________________________

See Post #33 please.

[no dems]

Not only will he (Marco Rubio) bring Florida which is critical but he would give the nominee at the top of the ticket a fighting chance to cut into Obama's bulge in the Hispanic voting block. If the Democrats can be cut back between five and 10% among Hispanics, they probably will lose the election.
AMEN!!! I've been saying that same thing for months. Thank you.

[no dems]

no mention of Cantor for a VP pick?
______________________________________________________________

He’s from VA. The Gov. of that State is a better choice for VP. Being a Governor carries more political weight than a Congressman. No Congressman has been elected President since Garfield.

[struggle]

>>True. Obozo will still get 95% of the Black vote. There just won’t be as many Blacks voting this time for the following reasons:
>>#1. They’ve had their Black Prez. The “new” has worn off and the novelty is gone.
>>#2. Unemployment in the Black Community is 16%.
>>#3. Blacks are very disillusioned and pi**ed off at Obozo becasue he has not delivered for the brothas like they thought he would.

What a lot of people don’t realize is that Obama only won by 52% with MAXIMUM black involvement, MAXIMUM youth/student involvement, MAXIMUM independent crossover voting, and MINIMUM enthusiasm for McCain.

We’re looking at a landslide against Obama in 2012 unless there is massive fraud, massive involvement, and a MASSIVE mistake by Republicans.