Posted on 12/05/2011 9:16:33 AM PST by parksstp
Electoral Map Showing the Latest on the 2012 Race. Pretty much a 196-196 tie between Safe/Likely Republican States and Safe Obama states with 12 states pretty much deciding the outcome. Of the 12 States, 3 Lean Republican (MO), (VA), (FL), 4 Lean Democrat (PA), (NV), (CO), (MI), and 5 are absolute toss-ups (NH), (IA), (OH), (WI), (NM).
Also speculation on Potential Running mates.
(Excerpt) Read more at 270towin.com ...
Okay, now that that disclaimer is out of the way, time to talk Electoral Math. Like just about every other potential Republican Presidential candidate, Newt would handedly carry all of the McCain states. 19 of the McCain states are what I would list as “Solidly Republican” and are worth 156 Electoral Votes where the Democrats/Obama would be foolish to spend any money here. Interesting on this list is GA, which was one of three states McCain won by less than 8%, which is firmly in the Newt column, but had some uncertainties in regards to Romney. Obama has little chance in TX or the 2CD in NE, which would be the only realistic places he’d try to contend here, but since the Democrats will be on defense in the battlegrounds, they will focus money and resources there and pretty much cede these areas.
“Safe” Republican- AK(3), ID(4), UT(6), WY(3), ND(3), SD(3), NE(5), KS(6), OK(7), TX(38), AR(6), LA(8), MS(6), AL(9), GA(16), SC(9), TN(11), KY(8), WV(5) – 156 Electoral Votes
In regards to “Likely” Republican, I see four states totaling 40 Electoral Votes. The reasoning being while these states are still most likely to go Republican, they could be closer than the results in the “Safe” category. MT(3) was one of 3 McCain states where the margin of victory was less than 8%. This state has a lot of libertarian conservatives/social liberals that you never know what way they’re going to go. However, there’s a huge Senate race here to oust Jon Tester and get a GOP pick-up, and that should be all that is necessary to carry the day. In AZ(11), this is still most likely a GOP pick-up. Despite what the MSM wants people to believe, the people of AZ are happy with the immigration laws passed there. And if Sherriff Joe was able to come out for Perry given his previous immigration comments, I don’t see him having an issue coming out for Newt. IN(11) should probably be in the safe column as well, but I’d like to see more head-to-head polling there before moving it there. Reason being is I want to get a feel of the projected vote in Marion County. Assuming the GOP candidate loses Marion by no more than say, 85,000 votes and wins back the suburbs where McCain underperformed with both independents and conservatives, then Newt should be fine here. Lastly, the NC(15) Democratic Party is on the brink of self-destruction. While Obama and the Dems are holding the DNC in Charlotte, I can’t see it having any more effect than what our 2008 RNC in Minneapolis did. McCain lost NC by only 17,000. There are two pathways to reclaim it: reduce the losses in the suburbs (i.e. get swing counties like Buncombe County back to a 52-47 result rather than a 58-42 result) and/or perform better in conservative districts than McCain did. Either method alone should be enough to get the job done, while accomplishing both would make the state uncompetitive for Obama. In any case, these are all states Newt would carry in the 5-10% range.
“Likely” Republican – MT(3), AZ(11), IN(11), NC(15) – 40 Electoral Votes
That gives Newt a base of 196 Electoral Votes to work with. Pretty much, Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum would get the same results here. Romney probably gets the same results with only GA maybe being an issue, but even still, would probably still have the same 196 Electoral Votes.
That number is important because the Democrats have 196 “Safe” Electoral votes. If any of the following states showed up as being competitive, it would mean a Republican landslide was coming. For now, I don’t see it because these states are so polarized. Maybe Newt could pull a surprise in, say, OR, but I doubt it given their mail-in vote which looks susceptible to fraud and the environmentalist whackos. And not even Bachmann or Pawlenty on the ticket would be enough put MN into the red column.
“Safe” Obama States – HI(4), WA(12), OR(7),CA(55), MN(10), IL(20), ME(4), VT(3), NY(29), MA(11), CT(7), RI(4), NJ(14), DE(3), MD(10), DC(3) – 196 Electoral Votes
That leave 12 States worth 146 Electoral Votes. They will decide this thing, with the Republican candidate needing 74 Electoral votes to win the Presidency.
Whether it’s Newt, or any other GOP candidate, they will all be eyeing the same four states worth 70 Electoral Votes. They are FL(29), MO(11), VA(13), and OH(18). The good news is that three of these four states I would classify as “Leans” Republican, with OH(18) being the lone toss-up.
FL(29) is an absolute must have for the GOP. Mathematically, there are some scenarios (albeit unlikely), where the GOP could lose FL and still win, but they are unlikely. This election will be about the Economy. The RNC is in Tampa. And FL showed in 2010 that it was a much more conservative state than expected, as Marco Rubio nearly carried a majority in a 3-way race that included both a Democrat and a RINO.
IF (and this is a big IF) the polls showing Newt with a big lead in the primary here are correct, this could be a good sign for the GOP for the General. The important numbers to watch out of the 31 Jan primary are the vote totals from South Florida, the I-4 Corridor, and the Conservative North/Northwest. McCain lagged behind Huckabee and Romney in the conservative parts, but made up for it with a huge gain in South Florida where Guilianni tanked. If the winner of the 31 Jan primary manages to win all the areas of FL, then that’s bad news for Obama. However, if Newt struggles against Romney in South Florida, or Perry/another conservative in Central/North FL, squeaking out a 35-40% plurality win, that could spell trouble. The results in SC which are 10 days before FL could really set the stage. The results could also effect whether a Marco Rubio or Allen West are added to the ticket, as FL is a must carry.
MO(10) is another state where there is a big Senate race to oust McCaskill which should engergize GOP voters here. MO is the opposite of PA where there are just enough GOP voters here to offset liberals. If Obama could not carry MO in what was one of the strongest Democratic victories in 2008, it’s hard to see how he carries it in 2012. It will be close (probably less than 5%), but the GOP should still be very well-positioned here.
VA(13) appears to have reclaimed its conservative roots in 2009. Tim Kaine doesn’t want to be seen anywhere near Obama as he fights George Allen for another key Senate race. I think VA goes the way of NC, but the Democrats will spend money here to try to protect it. I’d be interested to see polling data here for head to head match-ups, but this is another conservative state that the GOP should carry. I have Bob McDonnell on the VP short list if doubts about VA persist.
OH(18) is a total crapshoot. The economy sucks, but the Union thugs showed they are still powerful here. Given how narrow the Electoral map is, I think the Democrats will throw the bulk of their money into the Unionized Midwest and Hispanic Southwest, even if it means ceding FL and VA because if they can carry a commanding margin in Cuyahoga County again and deny the GOP a win here, Obama’s reelection chances go up sharply. The good news is that if they try to do that, then the GOP will be able to concentrate the bulk of their resources on OH as well. Excluding Cuyahoga County, Obama beat McCain by just 530 votes in OH. The Cleveland margin was 214,000. Excluding Cleveland, Bush beat Kerry by over 300,000 votes. The votes are there, people will just need to show up at the polls, unlike their failure to show last month to stop the Union thugs.
That gets our nominee (i.e. Newt) to 266 Electoral Votes, one state shy of victory. The last state played for depends on whom the nominee is. First, all of the candidates can scratch off NV(6) and PA(20) from the list. The reason for this is that in NV, the Republican party is heavily fractured, even more-so than MT where you’ve got a bunch of libertarian conservative/social liberal voters. To be competitive in NV, the GOP nominee will need about 300,000 votes in Clark and 100,000 in Washoe Counties respectively. That’s not impossible, but incredibly difficult to do unless the base is united. And it appears any of the GOP candidates is going to turn off some portion of that faction, makes it incredibly difficult to carry. The NV caucus may give us some insight into how competitive it will be (though the Paultards will surely be out in force), but for now it’s a tough pick-up. For this reason, although an unlikely pick, I did add Rand Paul to this VP list. As for PA, the Philadelphia machine will be in full force. They were pretty much inept in 2010 that allowed the GOP to win many of the House races and Toomey’s Senate seat, but even then, Toomey barely edged Sestak in the statewide vote. The vote margin here though will be telling. If Obama gets less than 53% in PA, he’s most likely going to lose the election. If he gets more than 55%, then that’s a bad sign for the GOP.
The road through CO(9) appears to go through Tom Tancredo. As a result, the chances for Perry and Gingrich here are slim, but they could always possibly add him to the ticket. Both of these men probably have a better chance competing in NM(5), where advertising is probably a lot less and the political environment is more friendly. Bachmann, Santorum, and Romney, would be about 50/50 at best in both states. Out of them all, Perry, as the next-door border state Governor would probably have the best chance of carrying NM. Tea Party support might be less here because it's looking more liekly the Senate GOP canddiate could be a RINO.
IA(6) is out for Romney. While Newt looks poised to get a plurality in the IA caucuses, there’s no guarantee the rest of the candidate’s support will come back to him in the General, because there are still questions about how conservative Newt really is. Even then, IA has turned pretty liberal in the last decade. The caucuses may or may not really tell us anything since so many people will be competing. We’ll probably have to wait for state head to head polls. A conservative on the VP ticket might go a long way towards helping turn IA back Red, assuming the GOP nominee was popular in IA to begin with.
WI(10) is a prime target and should be fought for as hard as possible. The Tea Party has made some incredible strides here and the Elections in 2000/04 were razor thin. Conservatives won the Supreme Court race and maintained their majorities in the House/Senate despite recalls. The Union thugs are now trying to intimidate Scott Walker via a recall, which must be defeated at all costs. Walker’s survival is tied to the 2012 Election. If the recall is defeated, look for Newt to pour major cash and resources into it. 2012 may be the best chance in years to turn WI red.
MI(16) – Romney and Newt will try to take the battle to MI. Because the Democrats are going to be backed into a wall with the limited map, they’re going to defend the Unionized Midwest and Hispanic Southwest at all costs. MI is probably safer than WI for the Democrats thanks to the Detroit voter machine, but the end result will probably be very close.
NH(4) – This is the state that I believe both Newt and Romney would be looking at to win the Election. By capturing NH, along with FL, VA, OH, and MO, they’ll get to 270 Electoral votes without even having to worry about the rest of the Midwest/Southwest. For this reason, it would not surprise me if a potential running mate with NH connections emerged to help secure the state.
So can Newt win the Election? Sure, just like anyone else pretty much can given how the 2012 Electoral Map. Not sure why people then are settling for less, but whatever.
As for potential running mates, I see the following possibilities, not listed in order of preference:
1-Marco Rubio (Only if FL or AZ in doubt, OR if trying for serious play in NM)
2. Allen West (Helps FL, but stature beyond, Foreign Policy experience, pi$$ off NAACP)
3. Bob McDonnell (Solidify VA, Popular Conservative Gov, aligns Outsider Gov with Insider Newt)
4. John Bolton (Foreign Policy Guru, not sure if needed though since 2012 will focus on the Economy)
5. Kelly Ayotte (Play for NH, Conservative Female, probably more valuable than Bachmann)
6. Chris Christie (Terrible Choice, but I added him because it wouldn’t surprise me, will doom GOP)
7. Haley Barbour (Traditional VP Pick, safe)
8. Sarah Palin (unlikely because VP Star Power would Outshine Nominee a la 2008 or Dukakis/Bensen)
9. Bobby Jindal (unlikely to accept, doesn’t seem interested in WH politics)
10. Michele Bachmann (Tea Party favorite, but fails to deliver state not already projected to be carried)
11. Rand Paul (Tea Party favorite, economic conservative, might finally keep nutty dad from running 3rd party and maybe his supporters would follow)
12. Mitch Daniels (Not as bad as Christie, could be better, but would probably be acceptable)
13. Mitt Romney (worst choice, would place entire election in doubt)
14. Tim Pawlenty (After what he did to Bachmann, then endorsing Romney, probably fell below Daniels on the pecking order)
15. Herman Cain (Unlikely, would invite MSM to continue baseless accusations/scandals into the General Election campaign)
16. Jim DeMint (probably safest Inside Washington pick, probably ahead of Bolton because DeMint has more Economic experience)
I don’t see Virginia being in play this time. Zero is extremely unpopular here (and I don’t live in a red area). Furthermore, nobody is going to trip over themselves to vote for Tim Kaine so there will be no cotails.
AS an Ohioian I’d be shocked if Obama carried Ohio.The opinion of Obama here is not good and even democrats are b*tching about what he has done and are afraid of what he may still do.It is hard to ignore that your electric bill is now twice + what it was in 2008 not to mention the rise in the price of food.
I like Bob McDonnell- but at the top of the ticket...
You might want to wait and see what a $1,000,000,000 0bama slander campaign can do to Newt before counting your votes.
Someone posted the VOTER ID LAWS map this is key to Obama having illegals voting for him.Unlike the 2010 election Obama will have all the people occupying right now driving people to vote for a cig or a dollar.And no one will or has said crap about it.
My local radio show had a guest on this morning who said that major GOP donors and “big whigs” are kicking themselves for not putting more pressure on Ryan to run.
I think Newt could run with a blue dishtowel and beat Obama.
Most blacks and youth are staying HOME.
Oh I think we’ll be finding out just how much they can do this month. I highly doubt Newt will get through December without the MSM going after him.
The point is based on the Electoral Map, we should nominate the most conservative candidate, because they absolutely have a chance of winning. This BS about Bachmann or Santorum not being viable is just that...BS
An incredibly informative and thoughtful post. I thank you for the time you spent, and also I agree with your overall points.
I still think Rob Portman is a legitimate Veep candidate and he would make Ohio very hard for Obama because of his Southwest Ohio roots. The conservative corner of the state will turn out in force to get their hometown boy into the victory column, thus neutralizing Cuyahoga County.
Keep telling yourself that.
You forgot one, and IMHO, the most likely NEwt VP pick of all:
NIKKI HALEY....
IIRC the 7 day voting with no ID will not happen this time.One has to have some sort of ID with address on it to vote now during the whole early voting time.
>>Most blacks and youth are staying HOME.
>Keep telling yourself that.
My students have already been telling me that.
true, I should have included her since I included Rubio and Jindal.
Problem is you will get the “Birthers” out declaring that they know better the definition of “Natural Born Citizen”.
In all 3 cases, Rubio, Jindal, and Haley were all born on American soil, but their parents were not naturalized citizens as of the date of their births.
That fight is for another thread, however.
I’m not sure that Cuyahoga can do much this time with the massive amount of population decline they have taken.Wasn’t one of the lost seats from there?
Possibly. Portman isn’t really known outside of OH, and if the nominee is someone like Newt, I think there’s needs to be a more “base-exciting” VP candidate.
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