Posted on 09/25/2011 12:42:05 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
It is hard to argue that Sarah Palin's delay in formally announcing her candidacy has been anything other than a smashing success. I have been among a minority who have contended from the outset that Governor Palin's delay in announcing was prudent strategy both for financial as well as political reasons. She has been able to campaign both in Iowa and New Hampshire within the last month, garnering huge amounts of publicity and the largest crowds of the campaign season. Her crony capitalism speech in Indianola on September 3 has driven the debate (as well as the GOP debates) even in her absence from the stage. It exposed the first chink in the armor of James Richard Perry, who has continued to bumble his chances, as some of us predicted he would. Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann has virtually disappeared from the radar screen, and is rumored to be broke, having poured every resource she had into winning the meaningless Ames Straw poll and paying the likes of Ed Rollins. And Mitt Romney remains in the low twenties, unable to put any daylight between himself and the weak field he faces. Romney's weakness--in the face of his opponents' implosion--has led the Establishment to begin to trot out what must be its last reserves, to wit: Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a liberal Establishment Republican to the left even of Romney.
Sarah Palin has positioned herself beautifully, as events have unfolded in the last month, by not formally announcing. And she has spent not one dime doing it. On August 14, I argued here that the principal reason for her to delay is financial. The Establishment is already funding two major candidates, Romney and Perry. They are trying to launch a third, Chris Christie. Well heeled to be sure, the GOP Establishment does not have limitless funds, and the burn rate for Romney and Perry (plus Christie, if he gets in) will stretch its resources to the limit.
Sarah Palin will, I argue, have adequate funds, but she will not be able to match the Establishment dollar for dollar. By waiting, she spends nothing while the Establishment spear carriers flit from straw poll to straw poll to fundraiser, spending cash by the boatload, to so little effect that a third major Establishment candidate is now poised to enter.
Sarah Palin is husbanding her resources while the Establishment is spending hand over fist, while dividing its admittedly much larger warchest several ways. In effect, Palin--who will be the insurgent candidate--is evening the odds. She is learning from some of the mistakes of the 1976 and 1980 Reagan campaigns, which overspent early in both cycles and ran out of money both times, costing the Gipper the nomination in 1976 and very nearly derailing him in 1980. Her delaying game, coupled with the multiplication of Establishment candidacies (a divide and conquer strategy, so to speak), has put her in the catbird seat.
Moreover, her delay is forcing the Establishment to play its cards first...to put its candidates out front first for the public to scrutinize. Palin knows that her formal announcement would take the spotlight and scrutiny, as well as the pressure, off the Establishment candidates since all eyes would then turn to her. And she is not about to give her Establishment opponents such a break. The vetting process has been very hard on the new candidates so far, and Palin is wisely allowing it to continue.
Meanwhile, under the radar screen, she is better organized than any of the declared candidates, with her O4P legions in nearly every state, particularly Iowa, quietly assembling names of volunteers and positioning themselves to strike as soon as she gives the word.
A Civil War analogy comes to mind. At Second Manassas in August 1862, Robert E. Lee was confronted with two Union Armies, whose combined strength was far greater than his own. He realized that he had to prevent them from uniting in order to defeat them separately. Understanding that the first Army--commanded by the timid George B. McClellan---would move slowly, Lee turned his attention to the other, commanded by the impetuous John Pope. Lee sent half his Army under Stonewall Jackson, perhaps 25,000 men, to lure Pope into battle, while keeping the other half, under James Longstreet, with him. Jackson mounted a lightning strike on the federals at Cedar Mountain, driving Pope back to the Rappahanock River, and then old Stonewall vanished into the Bull Run Mountains. Jeb Stuart hit him next, raiding Pope's headquarters and making off with $350,000 in cash and Pope's dress coat. Pope, enraged, took off after Jackson. When he finally found him two weeks later, Jackson was dug in on the railroad cut at the old Bull Run Battlefield from a year earlier.
Pope hurled his army of 62,000 against Jackson, trying to dislodge the stubborn rebels. At the end of the first day, Jackson's lines had wavered but held. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Pope, Lee had brought up the second half of his Army under Longstreet and positioned it on the federal left, concealed by the dense foliage. The next day, Pope renewed his attack on a two mile front, stretching Jackson's line to the breaking point. Civil War historian Bruce Catton sets the scene:
"The Yankees drove against Jackson on a two mile front stretching his line to the breaking point. His men threw rocks at the attackers when their ammunition ran out. Still Longstreet waited. Not until the last Yankee reserves had been thrown against Jackson did he take action. Then he launched his counterattack. An artillery barrage smashed the left side of the Union forces. Rebel infantry, 'screaming like demons emerging from the earth', fell upon the surprised Yankees as Longstreet's five divisions rolled against the Union flank.... As Pope tried to halt Longstreet on his left, Jackson hit him on the right. The whole Union line bent like a horseshoe."
Palin's hit and run tactics of last summer in Iowa and New Hampshire are reminiscent of Jackson's and Stuart's tactics in August 1862. She continues to live rent free in the heads of the permanent political class, and her lightning strikes have forced them to react to HER, rather than forcing her to react to THEM. Just when the Establishment begins to hope it is rid of her, she pops up unexpectedly, and strikes it a blow that sends it reeling. At the same time, she manages to keep her intentions (and especially her timing) obscure enough to deny her enemies an easy fix on her as a target.
The huge vacuum in the current field, coupled with the many hints she has dropped over the last four months, suggest that Palin will enter the fray, but at the last possible moment, when the maximum amount of the Establishment's reserves, both financial and political, have been exhausted, or at least committed. Her entry will generate a tidal wave of excitement and energy, a political feu d'enfer reminiscent of the artillery barrage at Second Manassas, through which her legions of supporters will pour to vanquish the tattered, dispirited Hessian hirelings of the Establishment.
To those who are pleading "Run, Sarah, run", my rejoinder is "Wait, Sarah, wait." Strike when the maximum advantage has been gained. Not before.
That child is sick. Sick, I tell you.
Right there is the problem. The Gov't should be run like a business. That is why we are in the mess we are today. As far as Palin being able to straighten out the Gov't using her expertise, I don't see it. She did do good things in AK, but did end up doing politically expedient things as well that raises red flags in my mind.
I'm not a big fan of raising taxes.
I'm willing to be persuaded; can you cite some specifics on appearances at which he demonstrated a lack of knowledge of the "complexities of government"?
Funny you should mention that. As a First Order Adherent of the Cult of Palin, Abbey Trollhenge, I happen to know that there's a pillar with his name already inscribed on it.
;-)
You got off light. I've got scars .. LOL
Always has been. That’s why I remembered those posts from 2006. I couldn’t find the 2004 posts. When a poster is that egotistical and nasty, they are remembered.
Yeah but those will be scars you can proudly display forever...:oP
>> “The Gov’t should be run like a business.” <<
.
That is an immature quip.
Government can’t be run like a business. A business has to seek a profit, and if it fails, it is replaced by one that does better. Government cannot fail, because government is us. The methods that make for effective government are vastly different than what makes for profitable business.
Do you really think I was dreaming about getting a prom date with Sarah Palin?? No. That was sarcasm to point out the adolescent infatuation that many Palinistas have. But then you had to go Democrat and turn it to some crazy violent fantasy where Palin destroys my foot with a stilletto.
Palin’s bill didn’t have anything to do with oil profits; ACES was addressed before profits.
As a staunch Palin supporter, you don't know how badly I'd like for her to take advantage of Perry's fall, and jump in now. That said, I've stopped trying to out-think her political instincts. Every time I've thought that she needed to do one thing and she did another, she's proven me wrong.
If this is the opening she was looking for, we'll see an announcement before she loses the advantage. If not, it'll come at some other time of her choosing, that will ultimately prove to have been the better time.
What are those homeopathic pills for babies? Calms or something? Or is that the teething pills?
ain’t she just great....
You and I go back a ways with these two trolls but I think everyone here would benefit greatly before taking them seriously by reading their posting history. Both have a long history of PDS, Neither offer a whole lot in the way of legitimate discussion but they sure can sling the mud.
WTC for example seems to have Tourrette’s Syndrome when it comes to Palin and often cannot say her name without adding his snarky little “TM” thing, while jla used to be a dyed in the wool “Palinista” until she didn’t act just as he/she wanted her to and she became one of the great evils of our time. And of course we supporters are all deluded cultists and their infinite wisdom is the only thing that can save us ;)
No one here should take my word for it though. They really should go see for themselves. Hopefully someday the powers that be will tire of their BS as much as we have.
WTC:
http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:wtc911/index?tab=comments;brevity=full;options=no-change
JLA:
http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:jla/index?tab=comments;brevity=full;options=no-change
Now watch them come back with all sorts of snarky comments and denial/excuses.
Cain has been unable to respond accurately or intelligently to any question relating to the operations and responsibilities of government.
He’s good at talking about his own ideas and plans, but he fails to resonably show how they will work as applied to government.
What pundits should be talking about when it comes to Palin
Palin tossed out the corruption-ridden, structurally-flawed Petroleum Profits Tax of the Murkowski administration and put forth ACES (Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share), which incentivized development while seeing to it that Alaskans — resource owners as per the Alaska Constitution — would receive “A CLEAR and EQUITABLE SHARE (ACES) of the value of their commonly-owned oil and gas.” The result? Alaska was left with a $12 billion surplus. Also, as reported at Big Government, “The number of oil companies filing with the Alaska Department of Revenue has doubled, indicating that competition has indeed increased. Alaska has the second most business friendly tax set-up — up two spots since the passage of ACES. Additionally, a report from Governor Parnell’s Department of Revenue indicated that 2009 yielded a record high in oil jobs.”
I understood fully your childish attack on Palin supporters.
I responded at the same level, but a bit more in tune with real life.
Go Dem? - LOL!
What a cool thought. I wish I could dig back and find some of my battles with pissant. I'll bet there are a few retorts from him that would earn me some bragging rights .. LOL
Baloney. The Gov’t can be run like a business. In many of Cains speeches, he enumerates how this can be achieved. I don’t want someone as President just because they can tame this animal. I want them to totally overhaul and rebuild it. As it stands now, it is a dangerous mess.
Lazlo in PA is not interested in the facts, he is a PDSer of the most childish order.
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