Posted on 09/25/2011 12:42:05 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
It is hard to argue that Sarah Palin's delay in formally announcing her candidacy has been anything other than a smashing success. I have been among a minority who have contended from the outset that Governor Palin's delay in announcing was prudent strategy both for financial as well as political reasons. She has been able to campaign both in Iowa and New Hampshire within the last month, garnering huge amounts of publicity and the largest crowds of the campaign season. Her crony capitalism speech in Indianola on September 3 has driven the debate (as well as the GOP debates) even in her absence from the stage. It exposed the first chink in the armor of James Richard Perry, who has continued to bumble his chances, as some of us predicted he would. Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann has virtually disappeared from the radar screen, and is rumored to be broke, having poured every resource she had into winning the meaningless Ames Straw poll and paying the likes of Ed Rollins. And Mitt Romney remains in the low twenties, unable to put any daylight between himself and the weak field he faces. Romney's weakness--in the face of his opponents' implosion--has led the Establishment to begin to trot out what must be its last reserves, to wit: Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a liberal Establishment Republican to the left even of Romney.
Sarah Palin has positioned herself beautifully, as events have unfolded in the last month, by not formally announcing. And she has spent not one dime doing it. On August 14, I argued here that the principal reason for her to delay is financial. The Establishment is already funding two major candidates, Romney and Perry. They are trying to launch a third, Chris Christie. Well heeled to be sure, the GOP Establishment does not have limitless funds, and the burn rate for Romney and Perry (plus Christie, if he gets in) will stretch its resources to the limit.
Sarah Palin will, I argue, have adequate funds, but she will not be able to match the Establishment dollar for dollar. By waiting, she spends nothing while the Establishment spear carriers flit from straw poll to straw poll to fundraiser, spending cash by the boatload, to so little effect that a third major Establishment candidate is now poised to enter.
Sarah Palin is husbanding her resources while the Establishment is spending hand over fist, while dividing its admittedly much larger warchest several ways. In effect, Palin--who will be the insurgent candidate--is evening the odds. She is learning from some of the mistakes of the 1976 and 1980 Reagan campaigns, which overspent early in both cycles and ran out of money both times, costing the Gipper the nomination in 1976 and very nearly derailing him in 1980. Her delaying game, coupled with the multiplication of Establishment candidacies (a divide and conquer strategy, so to speak), has put her in the catbird seat.
Moreover, her delay is forcing the Establishment to play its cards first...to put its candidates out front first for the public to scrutinize. Palin knows that her formal announcement would take the spotlight and scrutiny, as well as the pressure, off the Establishment candidates since all eyes would then turn to her. And she is not about to give her Establishment opponents such a break. The vetting process has been very hard on the new candidates so far, and Palin is wisely allowing it to continue.
Meanwhile, under the radar screen, she is better organized than any of the declared candidates, with her O4P legions in nearly every state, particularly Iowa, quietly assembling names of volunteers and positioning themselves to strike as soon as she gives the word.
A Civil War analogy comes to mind. At Second Manassas in August 1862, Robert E. Lee was confronted with two Union Armies, whose combined strength was far greater than his own. He realized that he had to prevent them from uniting in order to defeat them separately. Understanding that the first Army--commanded by the timid George B. McClellan---would move slowly, Lee turned his attention to the other, commanded by the impetuous John Pope. Lee sent half his Army under Stonewall Jackson, perhaps 25,000 men, to lure Pope into battle, while keeping the other half, under James Longstreet, with him. Jackson mounted a lightning strike on the federals at Cedar Mountain, driving Pope back to the Rappahanock River, and then old Stonewall vanished into the Bull Run Mountains. Jeb Stuart hit him next, raiding Pope's headquarters and making off with $350,000 in cash and Pope's dress coat. Pope, enraged, took off after Jackson. When he finally found him two weeks later, Jackson was dug in on the railroad cut at the old Bull Run Battlefield from a year earlier.
Pope hurled his army of 62,000 against Jackson, trying to dislodge the stubborn rebels. At the end of the first day, Jackson's lines had wavered but held. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Pope, Lee had brought up the second half of his Army under Longstreet and positioned it on the federal left, concealed by the dense foliage. The next day, Pope renewed his attack on a two mile front, stretching Jackson's line to the breaking point. Civil War historian Bruce Catton sets the scene:
"The Yankees drove against Jackson on a two mile front stretching his line to the breaking point. His men threw rocks at the attackers when their ammunition ran out. Still Longstreet waited. Not until the last Yankee reserves had been thrown against Jackson did he take action. Then he launched his counterattack. An artillery barrage smashed the left side of the Union forces. Rebel infantry, 'screaming like demons emerging from the earth', fell upon the surprised Yankees as Longstreet's five divisions rolled against the Union flank.... As Pope tried to halt Longstreet on his left, Jackson hit him on the right. The whole Union line bent like a horseshoe."
Palin's hit and run tactics of last summer in Iowa and New Hampshire are reminiscent of Jackson's and Stuart's tactics in August 1862. She continues to live rent free in the heads of the permanent political class, and her lightning strikes have forced them to react to HER, rather than forcing her to react to THEM. Just when the Establishment begins to hope it is rid of her, she pops up unexpectedly, and strikes it a blow that sends it reeling. At the same time, she manages to keep her intentions (and especially her timing) obscure enough to deny her enemies an easy fix on her as a target.
The huge vacuum in the current field, coupled with the many hints she has dropped over the last four months, suggest that Palin will enter the fray, but at the last possible moment, when the maximum amount of the Establishment's reserves, both financial and political, have been exhausted, or at least committed. Her entry will generate a tidal wave of excitement and energy, a political feu d'enfer reminiscent of the artillery barrage at Second Manassas, through which her legions of supporters will pour to vanquish the tattered, dispirited Hessian hirelings of the Establishment.
To those who are pleading "Run, Sarah, run", my rejoinder is "Wait, Sarah, wait." Strike when the maximum advantage has been gained. Not before.
I agree. Seems to me the odds of gaining the nomination are something like:
Romney - 50%
Perry - 20%
Palin - 20%
Cain - 5%
All Others Combined - 5%
***Sadly agree, Cain couldn’t beat Obama. Hard to believe so many people here are on his bandwagon. No political experience, that’s a deal killer right there. On the job training for POTUS? Please.
Flame away. It’s all I’ll be saying on the matter, not here to upset anyone.***
I hesitate to post because I don’t want to come across as anti-Palin (I’m not) and I’m not trying to disrupt this thread, but I do want to address this issue.
I think one of the reason’s that Cain does have a shot is that he’s not a politician. Most Americans are sick and tired of the mess politicians and lawyers have put us in over the last 50 years. A guy who’s a smart, great manager who actually has real world experience trying to keep business afloat while dealing with Washington’s nonsense is exactly what I’m looking for.
Most of these political wonks never really have to live with the laws that they foist on the rest of us. They don’t understand how they suffocate and strangle business and free enterprise.
But Cain does. His lack of political office may end up being his biggest selling point. (I brought this issue up to my husband this morning and he said, “That’s a huge PLUS in my book!”) People are ready to try something different. What we’ve been voting for hasn’t been working.
For that matter, I do believe that Palin gets this, too.
The high pitched is only when she gives a speech OUTSIDE in front of a huge crowd. NEVER during an interview or a debate. LEARN about Sarah’s life, then we can talk.
If Sarah thinks that Herman could get the nomination Sarah would not get in. However Sarah if she gets in she knows she will win and could use Herman and all the rest to restore America. I am not sure Sarah wants to risk it, that Herman will not make it. Sarah will fundamentally change the direction of this country and the folks will demand it.
“So NOTHING negative can ever be overcome? The practice with interviews she’s had since then, getting more experience on the national scene, her ability to answer off the cuff questions of the press with ease will have absolutely NO effect. Gosh, I’d better go back to school because I failed Algebra the first time around. Maybe the teacher thought my new understanding was a fluke and only judged me on my first try.”
She didn’t get better with more practice. She’s more like Perry. That’s why she doesn’t want to have so many debates. She looks good now but if we were to see her flub and fumble over and over, she’ll be just another savior that couldn’t deliver.
You obviously don’t understand what sarcasm is.
(or what it isn’t)
You do realize that you're repeating the left-wing, MSM talking points against Palin, do you not?
No other prospective candidate brings more excitement and numbers to the table, as Palin does. That's a fact which cannot be spun out of existence by the left, or the RINO establishment.
Don't buy into their lies and spin. They're more worried about Palin stepping into the race than they let on. If the last three years should have taught you anything, it's that they fear her more than any other person on the right.
Think with it.
I see you’re still on FR. Isn’t that nice. I’m so glad that you didn’t mean it when you said you’d leave when I proved you lied. It shows real chutzpah.
Palin would endorse Herman Cain. If she’s the kingmaker, then he is the man who would be king.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wix4k1VgJtE
“The high pitched is only when she gives a speech OUTSIDE in front of a huge crowd. NEVER during an interview or a debate. LEARN about Sarah’s life, then we can talk.”
No, she has that voice every time she’s on Fox News with Greta.
Hillary would lose a lot worse than Obama, The blacks would stay home if Zero was stabbed in the back.
You need to think though the story line before you make funny comments like that.
See Sarah's Indianola speech from just a month ago:
Did Mr Gibson, or any other MSM a-hole, ever ask candidate Obama a similar question? I don't remember it - what I remember is them filling in the answers for him i.e. "my Muslim....errr...Christian faith".
Your comment is a complete contradiction of what was reported by CNN after one of her impromptu interviews in Iowa.
First of all, it's polite to ping who you are discussing.
Secondly, the OP, Brices Crossroads, is a stanch Palin supporter.
So! You'd guess wrong.
>> “You know, what I really don’t understand from people who post on Fr, meaning not the du liberals, is that Sarah haters really hate her viscerally - with no logic.” <<
.
No, the PDSers are mostly not a real part of FR.
They are a part of what Palin’s presidency is going to dismantle, and they know it. Their fear is real, and reasonable.
Not so.
I would hate to see Herman Cain wasted as a VP. He is much more qualified than to have him cooling his heels in a do-nothing job. I would much rather see him in a cabinet post or an economic advisor. I want him at the table in a Palin administration.
But that is the beauty of Palin being President - because
she would have the foresight to change the image of the
VP position to be a “do something job”. She knows the
“good old boys” days are over...
Here's a more recent inteview.
CAIN: I support the Second Amendment.
BLITZER: So you don’t? What’s the answer on gun control?
CAIN: The answer on gun control is I support, strongly support, the Second Amendment. I don’t support onerous legislation that’s going to restrict people’s rights in order to be able to protect themselves as guaranteed by the Second Amendment.
BLITZER: Should states or local governments be allowed to the gun situation . . .
CAIN: Yes
BLITZER: So the answer is yes?
CAIN: Yes. The answer is yes, that should be a state’s decision.
Count me as one who thinks “articulate” and “degree” describe Oblabla, and are not necessarily qualifiers.
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