Posted on 09/17/2011 2:28:31 PM PDT by techno
Imagine you are Sarah Palin sitting in her living room today. You know that Mitt Romney needs "a parting of the Red Sea miracle" to win the GOP nomination, you already have known for several months that all the second-tier candidates, including Michele Bachmann, are toast, so you are faced with only 3 scenarios that you need concern yourself about as you move forward and that could derail your bid for the GOP nomination:
a)Rick Perry
b)The 11th hour entry into the race of Jeb Bush
c) Barack Obama may not run for re-election
Of course she knows all the filing deadlines for each state and fully understands the bureaucratic morass and jungle she and her team will need to navigate to become an official presidential candidate.
She fully comprehends the anti-Palin forces on both the Left and the Right will do everything in their power to stop her from announcing a presidential bid and after she enters the race to resort to sabotage to stop her from winning the nomination.
She understands she will in all likelihood be outraised by Team Perry. But that has been the hallmark of all her campaigns.
And there is now a rumor afloat via firelight at conservatives4palin.com that the GOP leadership is prepared to ambush Sarah Palin once she enters the race by moving up the early primaries/caucuses significantly with a Iowa caucus date sometime in Dec 2011, to prevent Palin from having enough time to win enough hearts and minds in the early primary states and to set up an organization after she enters the race.
And she realizes that she is now in the ascendancy in the polls while both Perry and Romney are now both on the decline despite not being a candidate yet.
And finally she is fully cognizant of President Obama's falling poll numbers and speculation he may not run for a second term.
Now your folks are all intelligent adults--given all this information and data and taking into mind the various political considerations, what would you do or at least consider doing?
Here is what I would do if I were Sarah Palin (I am not privy to any inside info):
a) Wait another week or two to see if there are more stirrings or rumors out of the Jeb Bush camp or GOP establishment. She knows the GOP establishment will NOT go quietly into the night and in acquiescent fashion accept defeat due to Romney's poll numbers now tanking. If it has a plan, it must act quickly and decisively. One thing that hardly anybody brings up is that the window may be closing for Palin to get into the race but by the same token it is also closing on any other new potential entrant as well. Jeb has to act quickly; she knows that. And that is as good a reason to delay her entry into the race as any.
b)Palin knows Perry has damaged himself in his first to debates (see CBS/NYT poll released yesterday)and eventually his overall support would begin to fall off. She is politically savvy and understands the nature of vetting and what can result from it. Like everyone she has an opinion on far Perry's poll numbers will sink or whether he will bottom out and start to rebound but she is certain the longer she stays out of the race the more Perry will be exposed, especially to Tea party supporters, who she needs to move over to her tent en masse to win the nomination.
"When your opponent is falling, don't get in the way."
And for the time being Sarah Palin won't.
c)The McGinniss/Levi Johnston books are more of a nuisance than anything but why subject yourself to the political spotlight when you know all the reporters want to ask you is whether you slept with Glenn Rice. Let it pass (books released next week) and besides neither Romney nor Perry appear that they are going to become any more viable in a period of a week or 10 days.
d)And by waiting as late as possible to enter the race you prevent the GOP leadership from changing the primary docket in such a dramatic way because of the bureaucratic procedures involved in moving up so many races. And if the GOP leadership does it before she enters the race, the grassroots will be complaining and screaming about interrupting Christmas and having the unmitigated gall to changing the rules in midstream and as a consequence donations could dry up and the GOP leadership could take a major hit to its credibility. And Palin knows this: The GOP leadership will not make its move until she enters the race.
e) And Palin like everyone else is probably wondering if Obama would pull a Truman (1952) or a LBJ (1968) and not seek re-election.
She is also fully aware that no prominent Democrat would challenge and then deny "the first Black President" a second term in office without alienating the massive Black vote for the Democrats.
I think Palin is pretty confident that the egomaniac, Narcissist, Soros puppet will be running but I think she doesn't want to be blindsided by Obama not running because of health reasons.
f) And finally most people focus on the narrow window for Palin to compete in the GOP primaries if she enters late, but what the focus should be on is that it gives her enemies in the media and the permanent political class less opportunity to beat her up as well before the first vote is taken in Iowa.
And lest you forget, Sarah Palin has The Undefeated as her ace in the hole. If they attack her on her record as governor of Alaska she will say, "Watch The Undefeated." And the longer she waits, the more people will have seen the movie, both in theaters and in private homes.
In conclusion, Sarah Palin does NOT need to enter the presidential race now unless she feels she indeed made a promise to get in by the end of September. For those who fear PROSELYTIZATION, as I once did, she is now in the ascendancy in the polls.
And as to her strategy, has Sarah Palin decided not to focus on making herself MORE ACCEPTABLE to the GOP primary voters, but instead focused on making both Perry and Romney LESS ACCEPTABLE to them, thereby narrowing the gap by bringing them down to her level (increasing their negatives) rather than striving to climb up to their level of acceptance (according to the pollsters). If that is indeed her strategy, it appears to be working so far.
It's much the same as those that worship Obama as the messiah.
And it's a very disturbing phenomenon to see occur in our nation's politics. We've moved from electing Presidents to voting for political dynasties (Kennedy, Clinton, Bush)... to nearly worshiping our Presidential candidates. All that's left is for us to rename the position “Pharaoh” and start building temples for us to worship them as the living Gods that so many of us seem to think they are.
I honestly like Perry, just have a few reservations. Nothing compared to my feelings about Obama.
I will certainly vote for Perry if he wins the nomination.
OK, thanks. I guess I didn’t see where you actually said you support Palin in your first post, but I’m more than happy that you do.
Peace.
I kinda read some of your posts to figure out what I personally said that: A. Was incredibly nuanced.(certainly possible) or.. B. Was misunderstood or mistaken for another poster. or.. C. So over-the-top in its criticism of Perry(?) that it deserved sarcasm(?).. or D. Received justifiable sarcasm because I completely don’t understand nothing about Perry or whoever you’re backing today.
Ans: B
Check that. Ans: C.
Exactly, from what I have heard from other Sarah supporters, she was clearly going to announce today—Constitution Day. Saturday, September 17.
Well that was as good of a guess as any since no one seems to know the time nor place or even if it truly is planned. But don’t dispair as there are still a few more hours until midnight in the land of the midnight sun. The announcement may happen yet.
Huh?
Or was I “B”: mistaken for another poster?
I agree. However, while I do not know the sums involved I hear they are substantial and she would lose them if she formally announces. Her playing coy is NOT a sharp political move-(as stated by the Killer Palinista’s)-but a sharp PR move bringing in the bucks.
That's an excellent point. She may have been playing a waiting game to see what the slime bucket was going to put out. As it stands she still has a couple of weeks. This has just about blown over.
If she does this and means it and convince others that she means it then she will win in a landslide. Virtually everyone I know, liberal and conservative, recognize that the entire Washington establishment is corrupt. It's why Obama was elected. He was going to be different.
And your thinking was based on pure rumor. See where it got you!
No disrespect intended, but reminds me of the second coming of Christ. No one knows the time, etc.
Palin is handling this in a way that lets her fans fill in whatever motivation pleases them. If she were anyone else her fans would be saying she`s `afraid to get in the ring` or `expects to be coronated.` How many excuses have we heard for her not getting in the race--first it was the `lawsuit cutoff date,` then the Labor Day Tea Party event, NOW i`m seeing she was waiting for this McGinnis hit job--something I hadn`t heard until this weekend.
If she is truly running she needed to get in by now, so the initial wave of MSM crap would happen, and then those non-conservatives she needs to bring around would see/hear her working hard, taking on all other candidates and all `reporters.` This `will she/won`t she` thing is gaining her nothing.
Correction: what you heard from some other Palin supporters was speculation that she was going to announce today.
Maybe you should wake up to the fact that only ONE person's word is good on when she is going to announce whether she's in or not -- and that person is Palin. Anyone who regards as fact the speculation of ANYONE else, friend or foe, is behaving stupidly.
Maybe you should read MY post (see #59), Her Majesty’s Ship?
But...but it's too late! At least that's what they've been saying to Sarah Palin for the past ten weeks or so. If too late for Palin, why not also too late for Jeb?
Nicely done on the article. Palin will enter this race at a time of her choosing. In the meantime, Rick Perry is not looking quite so unstoppable. As for Romney, he recently went to New Hampshire to give a speech and barely a hundred people showed up - many of them only there to protest him trying to associate himself with the Tea Party.
Speaking of Romney, all these people giving Palin crap about not getting in the race yet and Romney's been in the race so long I can't even remember when he got in. Maybe it's a continuation of his failed 2008 effort. At any rate, all that money from his deep-pocketed supporters are just going down the drain.
So how exactly is it so advantageous to begin a presidential campaign so early? I remember Hillary Clinton announcing her campaign like two years before the election and all that did was make her own people so sick of her that Obama was able to sail right on by.
And amongst the uproar, predictions, signals, knowledgeable opinions, experts, anonymous insiders, etc, the one source not quoted is, well, the source.
Governor Palin has clearly stated her intentions.
Even Hillbuzz can find it.
Based on filing requirement deadlines as I understand them, Governor Palin technically has until November 11th at 5pm to announce her campaign for the presidency (this being the latest she could submit her paperwork and the $35,000 filing fee for the South Carolina primary, which is the earliest filing deadline of any of the caucuses or primaries that will determine the ultimate Republican nominee).
The Governor, however, has promised to let her supporters know her intentions definitively by the end of September.
http://hillbuzz.org/2011/09/06/question-do-you-know-if- governor-palin-is-going-to-be-in-michigan-in-the-next-few-weeks-specifically-september-17th
Or how about here...
Palin has said she is considering entering the race for the 2012 GOP nomination, already under way in Iowa, which holds the first nominating caucus, and other early-voting states. She has said she expects to make a decision by the end of September, and is not expected to disclose her plans during her speech Saturday at a tea party rally in a town south of Des Moines.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45953>
Apparently there are some that are getting impatient. Whether you are supporting or throwing rocks will not change anything. Gov. Palin said "by the end of September."
On a "predictive" note, Gov. Palin indicated she is attending the World Knowledge Forum, which runs from Oct. 11 to 13 and is expected to discuss US leadership in the midst of global economic turmoil. Other speakers include former British prime minister Gordon Brown and Larry Summers, ex-director of President Barack Obama’s National Economic Council.
Given that an announcement of active candidacy prior to that would cause quite a stir and a reasonable expectation would be numerous public appearances around the U.S. the "end of September" time-frame settles in quite nicely.
The decision to run is hers but I would think attending the World Knowledge Forum as a candidate would present an outstanding opportunity to contrast herself against Larry Summers, ex-director of President Barack Obama’s National Economic Council.
Then... BuckeyeTexan clued me in on David Brody / Gov. Palin and a direct question on the time-frame.
David Brody: Is that short order by the end of September? October?
Palin: I think that that is a fair time line for people, because Fall time, they can start getting engaged with different campaigns, but still thinking about it, and really, really desiring to be a participant in the positive change that needs to happen in this country.
http://blogs.cbn.com/thebrodyfile/archive/2011/08/12/sarah-palin-and-the-brody-file-one-on-one-at-iowa-state.aspx
Of course, direct quotes from interviews with Gov. Palin will not deter the folks that want to obfuscate a clear choice for real reform of the fed gov.
I just don't understand why folks will promote winning with a very questionable candidate vs. winning with a proven reformer. No one seemed to have a problem understanding what little bammy and the donks did with ObammyCare when THEY had the upper hand with majorities in both Houses and the Presidency.
The donks are so weak now unnamed generic "republican" candidates are besting little bammy. In such a winning environment why would one not want to win with a candidate that has a documented record of addressing the glaring problem... we need to clean house on BOTH sides of the isle which in many instances includes that very same gang of establishment GOP cronies.
So...
.
You know, Finny, I woke up to that fact somewhere around Memorial Day, when Sarah Palin “toured” the historic sites on a bus painted with the message = “HeY, you guys, LOOK AT ME”—
For even the dumbest observer, she could have done this anonymously. But Noesssssssssss, why? Only SHE will announce; only WHEN it is RIGHT fof HER. Is it for the country—IMHO HELL NO!
I like Cain, and I like Perry (with reservations ... he's a far sight better than Romney and he's not a bull in a china shop like worthy conservative warrior but politically clumsy Bachmann), and I think either one, could trounce Obama, but I like Palin much more than either of them. I think she'd be the better choice over either Perry or Cain. That's why I hope she gets in and wins it all, and it's why I won't flame you for having an opinion that, as far as it goes, I agree with.
But I will flame anybody who believes a rumor that Palin was "supposed to announce" on such-and-such date, and then when the rumor proves wrong, blames Palin instead of him/herself for believing the rumor in the first place.
You are going to ignore reality — no one can stop you or deny you that privilege — but I live in literalville. I cannot deny what my eyes and ears tell me. I, too, wish she were the madonna her supporters swears she is. But, open up your head for a minute. Do you really think she is NOT a calculating politician who will turn the moment there is an advantage to her career? Please. Use logic and reason. Our country depends on it. Is she waiting for a PERSONAL advantage — or for some reason (obscure to most of us) for the COUNTRY? Ask yourself. Palin is for palin.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.