Posted on 06/28/2011 12:11:53 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
We've never found her leading one of our state polls until now but Michele Bachmann's been on fire for the last two weeks and we find her at the top of the GOP field in both Oregon and Montana when Sarah Palin's not included. That's just more indication that if Palin ends up not running Bachmann will pretty instantaneously vault to co-front runner status with Mitt Romney, provided she can continue her current momentum.
In Oregon Bachmann gets 29% to 28% for Romney, 10% for Ron Paul, 9% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Herman Cain, 6% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman. In Montana she leads with 25% to 22% for Romney, 11% for Gingrich, 10% for Paul, 9% for Pawlenty,8% for Cain, and 4% for Huntsman.
In both states Bachmann's support is built on strong support from the far right. In Oregon moderates prefer Romney over her by a 39-15 margin and 'somewhat conservatives' ones favor him by a 29-22 margin as well. But with 'very conservative' voters, which constitute the largest share of the primary electorate at 44%, Bachmann leads 37-26 and that fuels her small overall lead. It's a similar story in Montana. Romney leads 21-13 with moderates and 26-22 with 'somewhat conservative' voters. But Bachmann is up 34-19 with 'very conservative' voters and with their constituting 39% of Republican voters that gives her the upper hand overall.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ...
Oh please................grow up! Don’t you understand the double standard yet?
>>> Jim DeMint may fill the VP slot.
On whose ticket?
If Bachmann recruited him, there will be two lawmakers (again) just like Obama-Biden pair.
And that worked out so well.
Ignorance is bliss dude.
She has all "style" and no substance. She's a disaster waiting to be unleashed on the right. All talk, no capacity to act.
Go ahead, name one achievement, one legislative accomplishment, one executive position, one life experience that qualifies her.
I know you won't because you can't. Nobody can, because she's a total zero in that department.
Style......meh.....
Rick Perry might change that.
The lack of name recognition actually can be a benefit at the outset, as many voters will see her for the first time, probably during the debates or an appearance on C-Span. The first impression is a lasting one.
“The lack of name recognition actually can be a benefit at the outset, as many voters will see her for the first time”
You’re right. There was a lot of “Sarah Who?” the day McCain picked her - even here on FR. I was the only one in my office that even knew who she was prior to that day. And look at her now.
Sorry - how does one reduce size of photos?
If that were true then why has she only been elected to Congress, Bachmann's wider appeal has never been tested, or verified, in fact it seems a pretty new concept generated by some positive press, Palin's has, not only with winning the Governor's office, but with her 93% approval rating in that office.
To become America's most popular Governor, with close to 100% approval, speaks to an "appeal to a broader audience".
So this time, even though conservatives have a real chance of winning the nomination and stopping Romney with Governor Palin, we should stand down?
Palin has the highest approval numbers with Republicans, higher than everyone, with her proven ability to win votes and sway voters among democrats and independents, the billion dollar general campaign will take care of the 50%+1 general electorate.
From where I sit, very doubtful. I don't believe she will even win the nomination. I just don't see a House member winning. Add to that, no legislative accomplishments and it's a steep mountain to climb.
I don't think her campaign so far really suits her strengths. She seems to be hurting herself more with her TV appearances than helping. Now, I know why her campaign is doing this (name recognition nationwide), but with so much time left, she would be better staying away from the MSM and focusing on her strength, giving speeches to live audiences. Once she has a polished message, then she could go back to the interview circuit.
Perry is likely to do more damage to Romney than anyone else. His chances are better than Bachmann, but I'm just not sensing any enthusiasm. Maybe that will change.
I have a hunch, the eventual winner has yet to announce. Whether Palin declares or not will shape the race. But, assuming that she doesn't run, there are still 6 different names still being floated as potential candidates. What I wonder, could a candidate who has previously stated he would not run jump in and steal the nomination? Gallup is still reflecting that over 55% of registered Republicans are not happy with the current field.
maybe but doubtful. Palin outshone Perry in his own campaign drawing 8000 to a superbowl sunday rally for Perry. Perry drew 500 the next week. Perry will take the anybody but palin conservative vote away from Bachmann and mitt.
Palin’s support isn’t going anywhere and right now her support is enough to win the primary.
Where is that from?
Here's a sign in Pella...LOL reference to John Wayne Gacey gaffe!
Romney doesn’t have to get any sudden, or enthusiastic traction, he is the machine, moving and steadily growing, with incredible funding, the gravitas awarding, daily support of the party establishment operatives and talking heads, and the powerful help of the national media, only a game changing, political genius like Palin can take him out.
All the others that crash up against the foot of the Romney machine, will merely be fighting to be his veep.
Palin and Romney are already engaged in a death struggle for the Republican Party, and they have been for 3 years.
Perry - the phrases "Pyrrhic victory" and "Faustian bargain" come to mind... I'm not so sure he's a walk, either, in the general. Reason: Fair or not, people will associate another Texas governor with Bush. When the Dems go back to their tired old saw "failed policies of the past", do we really want our guy to be one from the state and with a similar accent to the one they've so derided? I'm thinking of Joe and Jane Sixpack swing voter in the Midwest here, not hardcore political junkies... I am certain Michele could get those votes. Not so sure about Perry...
Sarah - rock star status within conservative circles. She is the most polarizing of all the (potential) candidates; could she win enough crossover? Could she overcome all the damage? Or is it safer to look at fresh faces?
Any one of them, though, I would take over the current occupant.
Of course she can, see post 49, and remember that you are seeing the other people pre media tear down, wait until you see what the media will do to them when they quit serving their purposes.
Exactly. So much so that there is no chance whatsoever that she'll ever get the title shot aggainst Obama. She'll get some encouraging polls. She might even win Iowa. But she's going nowhere.
The establishment is prepared to tolerate her for a while because she seems willing to play the role of patsy for Mitt Romney. There is no way she can beat him. As long as Mitt remains the only serious candidate in the race, he wins. That's the RINOs’ best case scenario. Unless Pawlenty can get over his cryptorchidism and generate some excitement, which is a remote possibility at best, it will take somebody not currently in the field to give Mitt a genuine contest.
The only substantial hope for conservatives is that Mitt will get a serious challenge from the right, probably from Perry or Palin. Failing that, the choice will be Obama v. Romney, a crap sandwich on toasted crap if ever there was one. Bachmann is not, has never been and never will be a factor.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.