Posted on 06/28/2011 12:11:53 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
We've never found her leading one of our state polls until now but Michele Bachmann's been on fire for the last two weeks and we find her at the top of the GOP field in both Oregon and Montana when Sarah Palin's not included. That's just more indication that if Palin ends up not running Bachmann will pretty instantaneously vault to co-front runner status with Mitt Romney, provided she can continue her current momentum.
In Oregon Bachmann gets 29% to 28% for Romney, 10% for Ron Paul, 9% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Herman Cain, 6% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman. In Montana she leads with 25% to 22% for Romney, 11% for Gingrich, 10% for Paul, 9% for Pawlenty,8% for Cain, and 4% for Huntsman.
In both states Bachmann's support is built on strong support from the far right. In Oregon moderates prefer Romney over her by a 39-15 margin and 'somewhat conservatives' ones favor him by a 29-22 margin as well. But with 'very conservative' voters, which constitute the largest share of the primary electorate at 44%, Bachmann leads 37-26 and that fuels her small overall lead. It's a similar story in Montana. Romney leads 21-13 with moderates and 26-22 with 'somewhat conservative' voters. But Bachmann is up 34-19 with 'very conservative' voters and with their constituting 39% of Republican voters that gives her the upper hand overall.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ...
Perry has the best chance.
Palin and Gingrich probably the least.
Romney, T-Paw, Santorum and Bachmann are probably somewhere in the middle.
Yeah, well.....there's that. Good point.
Palin/Rubio 2012
Are you agreeing? If you aren’t I’m suggesting you consider if she can get away with that like Obammy did considering the media will be 100% against her.
Although I’m a Cain fan, the most likely tickets are:
Perry/Rubio
Perry/Bachmann
Bachmann/Rubio
“Get serious people, she’s a disaster in the making.”
May be so. However, I will vote for her over Romney ANY day. I WILL NOT EVER VOTE FOR ROMNEY OR HUNTSMAN. If either win the primary, for the first time in my life (since I first voted in 1976 - could have in 1972 but was in the military) I will not show up at the general election.
I will ONLY vote for, even in a general election, a GOP candidate that is solidly a social/moral conservative.
Perry and Palin have the best chance, followed by Cain or Pawlenty.
Bachmann has the same amount of chance as Huntsman or Gingrich, she has absolutely zero, zilch, nada in the way of credentials or achievements. None.
And please don't tell me about Obama......he got a pass but no GOPer would!
I doubt that Bachmanan can win the primaries, so you can throw out that last guess as well, for two reasons.
Devils advocate
It doesn't mean she's not a disaster in the general, because she will be.
She will be laughed at far more than any other candidate simply because she has nothing going for her in her record, and she really won't be able to handle it.
I now have a candidate. I would like to think just about anybody could beat O’Bama when you look at what he’s done to the country and continues to do. I don’t know if we can recover form what has happened to date. His reelection would truly be the end of America as we’ve known it. Pray.
Thanks, I wasn’t sure, you know how great internet subtlety can be.
If Palin doens’t run Mitt is the nominee and Obama wins 4 more years...
I still don’t see how Romney can get any traction.
I can’t include Palin in “best chance” as things stand RIGHT NOW.
Could that change? Maybe...but as of today, with over a 60% disapproval rating overall, Palin has a tough climb. The other three I’d more or less agree with you on as best chances.
Bachmann, however, has a far better “style” than Palin and can appeal to a broader audience.
If Rubio isn’t, then neither is Obama.
Let the Dems TRY to make that accusation. I say we call their bluff.
Sarah Palin is running, she has pretty much stated her intentions all along and Bristol’s recent interviews have only confirmed it ,IMNSHO. It won’t be like any campaign we’ve ever seen.
” Would like to hear the collective wisdom here. “
How does it go? Some of the people part of the time. All the people some of the time. But, not All of the people All of the time?
Rick Perry in a decent showing can satisfy lots of conservatives and bring in lots of Independents with less struggle than the conservative base candidates confining themselves to their conservative base. The conservative rage out here is not going to allow the strictly conservative tier of candidates to reach out for those Independent votes.
I get hate flamed for my concern that the electorate is larger than the conservative base, but it seems to me that Perry, if he runs, could be in a pretty good place. He has marginally teed off conservatives with some bone head moves of his, which he has lived to regret and to actually apologize for, but his fiscal success record blows all contenders out of the water on conservative Texas fiscal policy. He, like Obama, can be hell on wheels if he is surrounded by the right people, and is fully capable of scrapping marxism. It will be war though. The RINOs hate him, along with the Bush machine parts.
Those who have already thrown their collective hats into the ring and those still considering doing so, have a bruising primary season to look forward to, the MSM hellfire being uploaded on them, and trying to get the primary voters to pick them, even before the general election comes around. And THAT is going to be crushingly brutal!
It is far and away too damned early to make any claims about who is going to win the GOP primaries and who "can" beat Obama.
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