PPP: Romney leads in Iowa, Cain surging (Romney 21%, Palin, Cain tied for second at 15%)

Public Policy Polling ^ | 06/01/2011

[SeekAndFind]

Mitt Romney has the lead in PPP's first Iowa poll since Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump exited the race, but with six different candidates polling in double digits it's clear this thing is wide open.

Romney polls at 21%. Sarah Palin and Herman Cain are tied for second at 15%. Newt Gingrich is 4th with 12%, Michele Bachmann 5th with 11%, Tim Pawlenty 6th with 10%, Ron Paul 7th with 8%, and Jon Huntsman 8th with 0% (only one respondent to the poll picked him.) 8% said they supported someone else or were undecided.

Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump's decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin's gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.

Romney's leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he's at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With 'somewhat conservative' voters he's at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those 'very conservative' folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.

There's been a lot of speculation that the Republican race could eventually come down to Romney and a single more conservative alternative. Although this will likely not be the case when the voting in Iowa happens we tested several head to head match ups between Romney and other GOP contenders to see how they would come out. Pawlenty may actually be the strongest contender to become the 'anti-Romney' as he ties him at 41%. Otherwise Romney leads- 48-41 over Palin, 46-38 over Bachmann, and 48-34 over Cain.

Pawlenty doesn't poll the strongest head to head among Romney among 'very conservative' voters- he leads by 17 compared to a 21 point lead for Palin and a 24 point advantage for Bachmann with that group. But with center right voters- those calling themselves 'somewhat conservative'- Romney leads Pawlenty by just a single point while he has a 19 point advantage over Palin and a 22 point lead over Bachmann with that group. What that says to me is that many Republicans are looking for someone more conservative than Romney but someone who isn't bound to get creamed in the general election the way Palin, Bachmann, and Cain probably would. That's very good news for Pawlenty if it ever plays itself out in real life.

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[SeekAndFind]

PPP We asked favorabilities for a laundry list of potential Republican candidates in Iowa, even if they weren't included in the horse race questions. Here's how they stack up sorted by net favorability:

Candidate	Favorability	Spread	Change from April Poll
Michele Bachmann	53/16	+37	+1 (+36 at 49/13)
Jeb Bush	51/20	+31	Not Included
Chris Christie	42/12	+30	Not Included
Tim Pawlenty	48/18	+30	-2 (+32 at 41/9)
Sarah Palin	59/31	+28	-1 (+29 at 58/29)
Paul Ryan	42/14	+28	Not Included
Rudy Giuliani	49/31	+18	-5 (+23 at 48/25)
Mitt Romney	51/34	+17	-13 (+30 at 55/25)
Herman Cain	38/24	+14	+8 (+6 at 15/9)
Ron Paul	42/29	+13	-25 (+38 at 55/17)
Rick Santorum	29/18	+11	-5 (+16 at 27/11)
Rick Perry	21/16	+5	Not Included
Newt Gingrich	39/41	-2	-23 (+21 at 47/26)
Gary Johnson	4/18	-14	-8 (-6 at 2/8)
Fred Karger	2/17	-15	Not Included
Jon Huntsman	7/23	-16	-13 (-3 at 5/8)
Buddy Roemer	4/21	-17	-9 (-8 at 2/10)
Donald Trump	28/56	-28	-29 (+1 at 41/40)

[Ingtar]

Since it is PPP, with their reputation, it likely means that no one has heard of Cain there, no one plans to vote for Romney, and Palin and others are splitting the real votes.

[andy58-in-nh]

Please keep in mind that PPP is an overtly Democrat polling organization.

They would love nothing better than to help "select" the GOP's nominee.

Again.

So Republicans can lose.

Again.

[sr4402]

There is no doubt the Press loves Romney because Romney implemented Romneycare just as Obama is implementing Obamacare. They love whoever socializes.

Romney will never get my vote because of Romneycare. Obama will never get my vote because he KNOWINGLY Violated the Constitution with ObamaCare. Why? Because Candidate Obama said the Individual Mandate was Unconstitutional because then the government could Mandate everyone buy a house. Yet he opened the door for exactly that with Obamacare. States no longer have any say and neither do the citizen - all is done in Washington and the Peoples Will be D....

[Diogenesis]

This poll is worth .... nothing.

Here is a real INDEPENDENT poll.

Click here for HARRY info

[PA Engineer]

Internals:

PPP surveyed 481 usual Iowa Republican primary voters from May 27th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

[RockinRight]

I’d be much happier seeing Palin and Cain as the two at the top.

What can we do to knock down Mittens?

[Waywardson]

400 primary voters is totally the wrong count and demographic. You need 1000 likely caucus attendees to get a real poll. This is FUD.

[ilgipper]

right now, it is primarily name recognition. The fact that Cain is this high this early is simply remarkable and shows the desire for real leadership. Romney ran last time and has had media coverage since then. Palin was the VP candidate. The rest are down the list because they either are unknown or have no chance (Trump, Newt, Paul).

[JPG]

Myth is like the house guest who came for a weekend visit and is still around months later. Next to a true conservative he's pablum.

[LS]

I find this pretty amazing, that Cain, without Palin or Romney’s money, without any national media/bus tour, is tied with Palin and only 6% back of Romney. Actually, it’s astounding.

[ez]

This has me lol that Chris Matthews said just this weekend that the race was coming down to Romney, Pawlenty, and Huntsman. What a tool.

[ez]

Bwa ha ha, Huntsman in negative numbers on favorability. But Chris Matthews says he’s one of the top three?!?

[Keith in Iowa]

>>>>PPP surveyed 481 usual Iowa Republican primary voters from May 27th to 30th.

First hint of a flaw - Iowa doesn’t have a primary... PPP should know better. If they can’t get something like this basic fact right, how can you trust anything they produce?

[PA Engineer]

First hint of a flaw - Iowa doesn’t have a primary...

This is what always bothers me about the poll threads. I wish FR would make it mandatory to post the internals.

This poll is part and parcel of the attempts to manipulate public perception and discourage the base. It has value only in so much as the attempt to manipulate. The attempt to manipulate is what is all that is needed to know. Just total FUD.

I really like the part about using "The New York Times" as a character reference.