Posted on 12/08/2010 4:43:50 AM PST by techno
Overall:
Palin 21% Gingrich 19% Romney 18% Huckabee 16%
Conservatives:
Palin 24% Gingrich 23% Romney 15% Huckabee 14%
Men:
Palin 23% Gingrich 23% Romney 16% Huckabee 11%
46-65 age category:
Palin 21% Romney 18% Gingrich 17% Huckabee 14%
65+ age category:
Palin 23% Romney 19% Gingrich 17% Huckabee 17%
This is the first time that Palin has led in any national PPP poll of GOP contenders and among these categories.
Could this be a preview of coming attractions? Yes, there is no frontrunner right now as Karl Rove suggests. But could Palin become a clear frontrunner by the end of the first quarter in 2011 if she can parlay these numbers into further support?
Have you noticed that Gingrich is all over the place now, traveling around the country giving speeches...without a teleprompter....writing books, making robot phone calls, appearing on tv, and making videos? For instance, have you seen his "Discovering God in America", and "We have the Power?" These are excellent, realistic and informative videos that really make you think.
Last winter, while spending time in a warmer climate, well before the election process was in full swing, I talked to people who were wishing Newt would run for president. And during this last election cycle I attended many rallies for local and state Republican candidates. There were many times, when I was taken by surprise by people...people of all ages...who out of the blue, would bring up Newt's name, and comment on how intelligent, and how well informed he is, and that he would make a good president.
Here on Free Republic I've see postings telling Newt to go away. And very often I have felt the same way..he has too much baggage. I was really disappointed in his affair while his wife was ill, the photo of him sitting next to Nancy Pelosi as they buddied up to each other over climate change. Just a couple of things that go against our conservative principles.
On the other hand Newt has the qualifications, the knowledge, and the experience to be a good president....to get this country back to the way our founders intended it to be. I think that people are seeing this, and Newt is slowly building a support group. And wouldn't a debate between Newt and Obama be interesting? It would really be something to see.
When people say a polling firm is “PRO-candidate”, they really mean that the pollster tends to skew the results to help that candidate, NOT that candidate leads in any particular poll.
But sometimes people use the term “PRO-candidate” to describe a POLL, rather than a pollster. In that case, the information is less useful, as they usually are just describing the poll results.
The easiest way to tell if a pollster is skewing polls to a candidate is to see if over time their results are better for one candidate than all the other polls.
But since PPP seems to be almost the only firm reporting 2012 presidential primaries right now at the state and federal level, it’s hard to compare with other polls.
And this far out, it’s hard to make any judgments, as the poll can’t possibly know who is likely to vote.
The point I am trying to make is twofold:
1)The GOP primary voters are not buying into the media narrative that Palin is political poison and unelectable.
2)Mitt Romney is NOT inevitable.
Quite honestly of the three wise men I give Newt the best chance to beat Palin because unlike Romney or Huckabee his support cuts across ideology and is more national in scope.
Conservatives want Palin too. Bitch-titted, beta-male freepers and tokyo rove-republicans don’t.
Well it looks like little Sarah from Alaska is a whole lot smarter than tokyo rove and that the “reality show” is paying off.
I don’t know why anybody thinks anybody is inevitable.
And I don’t think 21% in a primary poll indicates that GOP voters aren’t buying into the narrative. Palin has a strong, vocal, enthusiastic following. What we don’t know is first, is it bigger than 50% of the primary voting poll, and second, can she get 51% of the general election vote.
The top 4 names essentially are tied at about 20% (the poll margin is 4.9% after all). That doesn’t mean Romney isn’t poison, or that any of them have general appeal.
When this came out, I ran the numbers for 3-way races, using the information from this poll, and the 3-way races were still pretty bunched together. Palin I believe led all those as well, although interestingly, she did the worst in a 3-way where Romney dropped out.
I believe she did best if Huckabee dropped out, as they seem to be splitting a somewhat common subdemographic.
I’m still pretty scared about how Gingrich keeps popping up near the lead in these polls, given that Palin is on the news 24/7, and Gingrich seems like such a has-been.
You are correct.
But the left wants Palin in the same way that we wanted Howard Dean to win the Democratic nomination in 2004.
Once SP demonstrates her competency on the issues and holds her own in debates and interviews, the independent women voters will see that the media has lied in their reporting on her. They will be pissed and flock to her the way they did during the 10 days/two weeks after her 2008 nomination and they will never leave her. They will stand in lines for hours in subfreezing temperatures to vote for her. Tokyo Rove, Axelrod, the Bushes, Plouffe all know this. Once she get 50% plus 1 of the independent woman voter, it’s over.
“PPP is the polling outfit for the leftist Daily Kos.”
That explains the biased headline.
Palin is at the head of this poll because CONSERVATIVES and REPUBLICANS support the Governor.
As you make clear, the fact that a conservative is currently the frontrunner over Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee and Gingrich to lead the GOP, is your fear.
You have 6 posts on this thread, and every one of them sounds like a desperate lefty that is panicking.
For dealing with newt/pelosi/AGW-induced barf, the Pukemaster9000... that’s the ticket!
Conservatives:
Palin 24% Gingrich 23% Romney 15% Huckabee 14%
Again, I have to ask: self-described “conservatives” choosing Gingrich... are they just stupid, or is this poll and out-and-out lie?
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