Posted on 11/11/2010 5:00:29 PM PST by roses of sharon
The most important state to the nomination process on this list is Florida and there Romney’s ahead with 28% to 22% for Palin and 15% for Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee. It should be noted that although Romney does have the lead, it’s a much less lofty one than what he posted in a March PPP poll of the state when he had 44%. The only other candidates included in that poll were Palin and Huckabee and we’re finding more and more as we do these polls that when new folks are added into the mix it tends to hurt Romney more than anyone else. His support is less solid than Palin’s and Huckabee’s so even though he looks like a very nominal front runner at this point, he’s also the candidate most likely to see his support collapse as things heat up…
Palin holds small leads in the remaining states. Most noteworthy is her strength in Texas and West Virginia, which suggests a bid from her could really hurt Mike Huckabee in the South. In Texas she gets 22% to 20% for Huckabee and 15% for both Gingrich and Romney. In West Virginia she’s at 25% to 22% for Huckabee and again 15% for both Gingrich and Romney. These margins are obviously very close but they nevertheless pose trouble for Huckabee and perhaps even more so Gingrich if she ends up making a bad because strength in the South would be vital to either of their prospects.
Romney may not have a complete strangle hold on New England- Palin gets 23% in Maine to 18% for Romney, 16% for Huckabee, and 14% for Gingrich. Those numbers should give folks who think there’s no chance Maine Republicans would nominate someone far right against Olympia Snowe in 2012 second thoughts. And finally Palin gets 18% in Wisconsin to 15% for Huckabee, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Romney. Pawlenty has his best non-Minnesota performance so far at 8%, not surprising given that it’s right next door. And Pawlenty’s unusually strong Wisconsin number helps to explain Romney’s unusually weak Wisconsin number.
The numbers in West Virginia and Texas aren’t surprising; obviously she and Huck will compete for southern and rural voters, and her name recognition’s higher than his at the moment. Wisconsin’s a surprise, though, and Maine is a big surprise. As happy as Sarahcuda must be to see these numbers, Romney must be utterly deflated. Down five points already in his own backyard? And note the boldfaced bit, please — that’s exactly the point Frum was making in the column I linked earlier about Mitt’s support being momentarily broad but potentially only an inch deep. If, as he and I have speculated, much of Romney’s support comes from centrists who are simply looking for an alternative to Palin, then he’s at risk of flaming out as soon as a more attractive centrist alternative to him emerges. Which raises a question that’s been asked before: Does Mitt actually need Palin to run in order to maximize his chances? Right now he’s the Great Centrist Hope, the guy who can potentially head her off because of his fundraising and organizational skills. If she decides not to run, then he’s just the guy responsible for RomneyCare, who needs to sell himself as somehow superior to Daniels and Thune. And of course, without Palin in the race, Huckabee would stand to clean up among social cons, which would in itself present a challenge to Romney. Then again, given how much contempt most of our commenters seem to have for Huck, maybe having him pose a serious threat for the nomination would actually restore Romney as the Great Centrist Hope and unite people behind him. I’m giving myself a migraine here.
Just breaking as I write this: Palin’s announced the itinerary for her new book tour, and of 16 scheduled stops, two of them are in Iowa. Hmmmm.
Interesting.
Hehehehehe. Palin leading in Maine. I wonder if there are two RINO Senators in Maine? Snicker, snicker.
Get used to it.
What is it with Romney? I sincerely dont get the attraction and desire for him to be our President. Nice hair but really? Perry has nice hair too but really?
But But, I was told that there was NO way that she could win in a blue state..that must really get under Susan RINO Collins RINOSkin
This is all just a side show, Rick Perry will be our nominee.
Hey Hot Air, we’re not “far right,” we’re the center.
The liberal mainstream media is trying to shove Huckabee down our throat the way they did McCain.
This Huckabee is a socialist that is for illegals and pardoned criminals who murdered again. It's record as Arkansas governor proves that.
This is no man of God as it professes to be. It is a false prophet , a leftist mole.
It must be stopped.
http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/feature/2007/11/13/huckabee/
The liberal mainstream media is trying to shove Huckabee down our throat the way they did McCain.
This Huckabee is a socialist that is for illegals and pardoned criminals who murdered again. It's record as Arkansas governor proves that.
This is no man of God as it professes to be. It is a false prophet , a leftist mole.
It must be stopped.
That is fake, this piece of excrement Huckabee can poll within the margin of error from the top of the ticket for nominee for president shows the evil power of the media to brainwash and deceive. http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/feature/2007/11/13/huckabee/
You are joking right? Perry? The only reason he won (governor) is because there was no one else to vote for IMHO.
Which is the same reason he will beat Obama.
The writing is on the wall for Snowe and Collins.
1. He looks like a winner. I know it sounds shallow, but apparently a large chunk of the electorate is shallow because the presidential candidate perceived as most the most handsome has won every election since Kennedy.
2. He is the longest serving governor in Texas history. This is important for at least 2 reasons, first it secures Texas for the Republicans which is vital since there is no reasonable way to the white house for a republican that doesn't include Texas. And second, the public is not going to replace Obama with another under-qualified person, since they have rightly determined that Obama has failed mainly because he was not qualified for the job, and they will be looking for gobs of executive experience in his replacement.
3. He is not on the right side of EVERY issue, but he is on the right side on all the issues that will really matter in 2012. In particular, he has fought tooth and nail against Obamacare from the start (which is why Romney will NOT be the nominee)
4. He is winner, and not one of the many losers that run over and over each time, and only get more pathetic with each successive election loss.
He has NOT been good on amnesty and dealing with the illegal aliens. When he mandated Gardisil to young girls, he lost me there. Im not sold at all maybe VP but not even sure about that. Yes, he does have good hair I will give you that.
You can't create imaginary candidates from thin air, you have to run with what you have at the moment, and among those with extensive executive experience Perry stands out like a neon light.
Poor Governor Sarah Palin! Those “dismal” results from the 2010 election have crushed her! Bwhahahahaha!
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