Posted on 10/07/2010 2:11:19 PM PDT by Superstu321
It’s time honored tradition to attempt to gauge the political landscape and prognosticate who our next elected leaders will. But now, you can gamble money on it.
According to data provided to TFoP by bodog.com released its 2012 odds for the Republican presidential nominees. Coming out on top, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is an early favorite at 3/1 (+300), along with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 4/1 (+400).
However, one of the bigger eye-catching surprises seems to be how high Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., is on the list, giving him the third best odds at 6/1 (+600). Rounding out the top five include Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 9/1 (+900) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 10/1 (+1000). Remarkably, four of the top five are governors or former governors, compared to the 2008 cycle, with two senators facing off for the presidency.
As far as the House and Senate are concerned you can get nearly 2/1 (+200) odds if you think the Republicans are going to take back the Senate, while the Democrats are 1/3 (-300) to hold on. But the Republicans are the heavy favorites to take back the House at 1/3 (-300) with the Democrats the long shots at 2/1 (+200).
One other interesting bet is 2012 Democratic Presidential nominee. As expected President Barack Obama is the clear favorite at 1/6 (-600) to capture his party’s nomination in 2012, but Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at 8/1 (+800) and Vice President Joseph Biden at 10/1 (+1000) are getting better odds than you might expect with the sitting President being a Democrat. Former Vice President Al Gore and Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., round out the lines at 25/1 (+2500)...
(Excerpt) Read more at threefingersofpolitics.com ...
So basically, we have learned nothing..
Question to the Romney supporters here on FR, please help me understand your vote for Romney? Im being serious. What do you like about him and his policies?
Well, that will seal in Obamacare forever.
After Obama, even Bush and Clinton look much better. I presume it is what he wrote in “No Apology,” which did come across as relatively conservative. I read most of it. Obama is such a huge disaster. We have to stop the destruction of this country.
That strikes me as the first good listing of odds I’ve seen on this. Mitt really worries me. I’ probably swap Thune and Huck, but I think they’ve got the most likely top five that could be listed for now.
Ol’ Joe may be a bit less likely than they’ve quoted, as he only runs if Obama is somehow incapacitated, removed from office, etc..
Heh...no Jeb.
Haley Barbour 15/1 - those odds might drop a little as we get closer.
That he is a better bet in a general election than Palin, although Palin is a better bet in a primary.
I expect the odds to change quite abit between now and 2012. The smart money will be betting against Romney.
Never happen.
LLS
Moderate = electable? Really?? I simply don’t buy it.
Romney - may as well see Obama win again. Romney is equally as bad. Believe me, I live in MA and he shook hands with Ted Kennedy and destroyed what used to be the best health care in the world. Also, he allowed gay marriage - which his predecers (both Rep & Dem) did not.
That the oddsmakers have her so close to Mitt Romney is significant, as the folks who put their money on the line have tended to be the most accurate.
This is what I have been saying all along: Mitt Romney is the favorite, whether anyone likes it or not. However, it has been a long time since an actual Conservative has had this kind of chance this early in the campaign. Palin is in better position than any Conservative has been in a LONG time. The sooner this race becomes a choice between Romney and Palin for Conservatives, the less chance of “bleeding” Conservative votes to one-percenters.
Part of what prevents Romney vs. Palin from having even odds is the Huckabee factor. If he runs, he will succeed in taking Evangelical votes away from Sarah Palin and helping make Romney's weaker states less impactful. That is a reality we have to address.
Still, the oddmakers continue to see this as a Romney coronation with Palin close behind. I think they are correct. Thankfully, Palin is close enough to win.
Let ‘er rip.
There is NO WAY in the era of the tea party that Romney or Huckabee have a chance.
The GOP candidate will be conservative. Guaranteed.
Romney imposed his gay agenda (for the Boston Globe
and the New York Times) by ignoring the Mass Constitution.
With that and RomneyCARE, and his questionable origin
from a Mexican father, Romney is the pre-Obama.
Conventional wisdom would see Romney as the favorite. Like you, I don’t see him emerging as the candidate. His support is an inch deep and a mile wide and will not produce an ultimate victory for him.
Unlike you, I don’t see Huckabee as a real threat to anyone.
Can we just finish the 2010 election first?
Geez, those oddsmakers are a ghoulish lot.
Telegenic- means nothing to a patriot.
Moderate- means that he will lose the general because millions
of conservatives will not vote for him.
Electable- what do you have if he gets elected? Nothing!
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