Posted on 08/30/2010 4:29:28 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
On election day, former West Point cadet and Bronze Star recipient Joe Miller defeated Republican Party Hack Lisa Murkowski by around a three-to-one margin among Alaskan registered voters at the Elmendorf Air Force base, Fort Richardson, and Fort Wainwright. The good news for Miller is that he can expect voters from these three areas to be disproportionately represented among the absentee ballots. How so?
Only 2.55%, 4.97%, and 3.55% of the voters at Fort Wainwright, Elmendorf Air Force base, and Fort Richardson, voted on election day. The percentage of the electorate that turned out on election day was 28.36%. What that suggests is that an overwhelming majority of voters from the three military bases decided to send in an absentee ballot. The absentee ballots should be comprised of a disproportionate percentage of voters from these three areas.
Miller won over 75% of the vote at Fort Wainwright, Elmendorf Air Force base, and Fort Richardson. Contrary to what the Juneau Empire asserted, it appears that the absentee ballots are actually from Miller strongholds, including these three military bases.
Update: I even forgot about one more military base. Turnout for Eielson Air Force Base was only 2.86% on election day. Miller won 74% of these voters. So military votes will be even more disproportionately represented among the absentees.
Will Murkowski go the third party route? John Cornyn already informed Miller that the NRSC would support whoever is the nominee.
Saw on a CNN ticker that the absentee ballots have increased to 25,000+ today. Isnt that a hoot,? 23,000 just this morning.
Hoping and praying. Counting starts tomorrow. The final votes don’t have to be in until September 8. Unless it looks like a blowout, Murkowski will stay in it until the bitter end.
The libertarian party said no thanks today to Murkowski.
i read where they are staying out of it.
Military members will vote in elections back home - at their “home of record” - likely not in Alaska. When I was stationed at Eileson AFB (Moose Creek, AK) in the late sixties, I voted absentee in elections in Connecticut.
She could always try write-in. It would be great to watch them try to evaluate validity of write-in votes with about a dozen variations in spelling her name!
Good news Miller ping!
“Military members will vote in elections back home - at their “home of record” - likely not in Alaska. When I was stationed at Eileson AFB (Moose Creek, AK) in the late sixties, I voted absentee in elections in Connecticut.”
No. You must read his post. The percentage of registered voters at these bases (people who are registered to vote in Alaska) was between 2 and 5% on election day. teh TUrnout statewide was 28.6%. The differential of these REGISTERED ALASKA VOTERS (not people like your self who voted in your home state, while stationed somewhere else)-—which is about 25%- likely voted absentee. There is no logical reason why turnout of REGISTERED ALASKA VOTERS at a military base would have been 2%, while elsewhere it was 28%.
The only explanation is that they voted absentee, as military voters usually do.
That’s to be expected, many were nailed out on the day of the primary and are just now arriving. I wouldn’t read anything nefarious into that.
VERY interesting.
Thanks for keeping our spirits up with FACTS.
As an aside, my brother was born at Ft Richardson in 1952...couldn’t resist throwing that in....LOL
The Alaska Daily Worker is in Palin-hating overdrive.
I imagine the majority of the print editions are used as fish wrap of which Alaska has multitudes.
Prohibited under Alaskan law...the "sore looser" law.
our election system is totally screwed up....
If you click on the links in Lazaran’s article, you will see how great the divergence is between the election day turnout and the number of registered voters at these bases. In the surrounding areas, which is also in the links, the election day turnout was close to the 28% statewide average:
Example: Elmendorf Air base: 5086 registered voters
253 votes on election day
4.97% turnout
Nearby Civilian precinct:
Firelake: 1786 Registered voters
583 election day votes
32.64%
And the discrepancies are the same with each of the bases and the neighboring civilian precincts. The only explanation is that the servicemen, who are registered Alaska voters voted absentee. Joe Miller and Tod Palin had been working these bases and getting voters to agree to vote for Miller. Unlike Murkowski.
Oh... One other thing I noticed. THE NUMBER OF REGISTERED VOTERS ON THESE BASES IS HUGE:
Elmendorf: 5086
Ft. Richardon: 2871
Ft. Wainwirght: 4472
Eileson Air Base: 2972
They are by far the largest precincts in their respective districts. And the absentees that come from there will be overwhemingly GOP (there were very, very few DEM votes there on election day).
If you take the average election day turnout of 3-4% and assume that the absentees will bring it up to the statewide average of 29%, that means a full quarter (25%) of the sum total of these four bases voted absentee (probably overwhelmingly GOP absentee).
The sum total of the registered voters at all four bases is 15,401. One Quarter of them would amount to 3950 absentee votes. (there were only a paltry 34 Dem votes on election day, so I doubt if more than a very few of the absentees are Dem)
Using his election day margin of victory at the four bases(75%), Miller should win the absentees from these four bases by approximately 3000 to 1000, giving him an additional margin of 2000 votes...
and giving Lisa the coup de grace.
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