Posted on 08/15/2010 12:23:30 PM PDT by jay1949
Where I live, Virginia's "Fighting 9th" Congressional District, Democratic Congressman Rick Boucher had exposed himself to attack by voting for the cap-and-trade bill in 2009. Much of the 9th District is economically dependent on coal production and Boucher's pleas of extenuating circumstances went unheeded by many unhappy constituents. The Virginia Republican Party decided that Boucher's seat was up for grabs, as it probably was. "Was." No longer. Boucher is back in the driver's seat, starting the campaign with a lead which both sides appear to concede is in double digits. So what happened? The overconfident Republicans nominated a party regular, Morgan Griffith, who lives in another Congressional district and whose legislative record is not appealing to the voters he will need to unseat Boucher.
(Excerpt) Read more at backcountrynotes.com ...
Never underestimate the Republican Party’s ability to demonstrate their complete incompetence and stunning inability to understand what their constituents want.
This is what happens when we continue to put the future of our country in the hands of weepublicans. We blame them, but it is us who is stupid.
And to think that the Virginia GOP had three excellent local Tea Party candidates besides Griffith from which to choose at its May 22nd convention, but instead, the party bosses went the old, familiar establishment guy, which will guarantee a Rat victory.
SWVA is doomed.
Let’s wait and see before we write off any Democrat seat.
I thought Ben Light from Tazewell would have been the best choice. There was a lot of Tea Party participation but they were divided on candidate support, which allowed Griffith to win with a plurality. The Tea Partiers should have had a pre-convention caucus — but let’s face it, they are mostly political amateurs (which is part of their attraction to voters, IMO). Where the Tea Partiers have decided on A candidate to support, they have won nominations. Yet I still fault the Republican Party regulars for believing that the Tea Party folks “will come around” — a direct quote. They’re totally missing the point.
This is a near impossible seat for the republicans. Even when bush carried this distcrict by around 75%, Boucher won it by 25%.
If Boucher’s lead is within single digits, it would probably indicate a total route for the dems in the rest of the country.
Having said all of that, Griffith seems to be getting his name out there. Lots of his signs are everywhere during this past week. We’ll just have to see what happens. 0bama is detested by virtually everyone around here. If Boucher can be effectively tied to him and Pelosi by his votes, this thing might get close with an energized Republican turnout.
You mean Adam Light-—who’s my old high school buddy. Yeah, I think Adam could have pulled it off if given the chance, but the VA GOP convention system of nominating candidates did him in.
I believe the race will get closer; but Griffith has some very small margins to work with. If the undecideds are 5% as the early poll indicates, Griffith can win over all of them and still run second. In the coal-mining counties, the UMW union will back Boucher and work the neighborhoods for a good turnout. That may negate the Republican enthusiasm advantage.
Adam Light — correct, thanks.
The GOP - Snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.
And this is precisely what I mean when I tell people that not much has really changed in the minds of the voters over the last 2 years. I know people here want to believe November will be a great rejection of the social welfare state, but I see no evidence of it.
Boucher is a guy who voted FOR cap and trade in a coal district, yet the voters will march off to the polls and vote for him yet again. This is the very thing that is repeated in most districts and states throughout the nation. Oh sure, there will be some surprises, a few liberals knocked off, but for a whole host of reasons (including the fact that voters tend to be ignorant about most of the issues of the day) the American public still want their freebies and have not even remotely given up on the social-welfare state.
The fact that Boucher votes for Pelosi for speaker should be enough for voters in a conservative district to vote against him - but sadly, it isn't.
SWVA is sorta caught in a time warp in which most of the voting public there are Conservative but yet cling to FDR New Deal politics. Most folks back home have no idea who Pelosi is, nor do they care to know, nor do they care about the bigger picture. They only care about going to work everyday, putting food on the family table, and their politicians bringing home the bacon.
Despite Boucher's involvement as part of Pelosi's inner circle (albeit very quietly), he's a very good local "retail" politician who travels extensively throughout his district, has lots of townhall meetings (even when his constituents are pissed at him), knows everybody, and keeps his staff on top of the case work. So, he pretty much gets a pass on everything else he does and says in DC, except for the Cap & Tax, which did get him into real trouble.
However, the VA GOP dropped the ball in nominating Griffith who is pretty much clueless about the 9th District and has to be escorted around to meet people (for the first time) and to learn about the coal mining industry.
So Boucher will thus win again quite easily.
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