Posted on 07/23/2010 12:04:45 PM PDT by CaroleL
The primaries to determine the candidates who will battle for the seat vacated by the late Senator Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia) are little more than a month away. But most who are watching the race believe it will be a contest between Governor Joe Manchin (D) and Republican industrialist John Raese. The latest poll shows the Governor with a significant 16 point lead (51% - 35%) so should we put this one in the Democratic win column? Not yet.
(Excerpt) Read more at talkingsides.com ...
Not yet? Of course not yet...we have some time until November...this will be a huge hurdle but never give up.
‘Although Governor Manchin is considered a centrist, he has strongly supported President Obama’s far-left policies including health care reform.’
There’s that word again, centrist.
He is no centrist. Journolisting
As a proud Virginian, there is a reason West Virginia separated from Virginia, they are retards.
I would think,as the author seems to,once its a one on one race it will tighten considerably. Nothing like a clear choice to crystalize opinion.
Excuse me?
“Excuse me?”
You spelled everything correctly. You are excused.
Can someone explain WV to me... This is a fairly strong red state. Bush won big. Even McCain crushed Obama here (during the Dem tsunami). And Obama’s state approval is at 34%.
Yet, they elect statewide Dems. What gives.. Is this a Dixiecrat mentality?
You most certainly AREN’T excused, since we’re checking writing skills.
Seems you used a comma in your original post where you should have used a semicolon, or perhaps started a new sentence.
Nevertheless, this “retard” will take the high road and avoid name calling and taking a chance on offending like-minded individuals who come to this forum. It’s called “class”.
I’ll admit, lots of West Virginians are stupid. But so is making a gross generalization like that.
“I’ll admit, lots of West Virginians are stupid. But so is making a gross generalization like that.”
You are a man of great restraint. I admire that. I will retract my assertion that all of WVA is retarded. I will gladly note that the fishing in WVA is splendid. Should WVA surprise me and elect a Republican Governor, I will happily state to any and all that WVA is fine by me. Lets see what happens. You guys flunked the first test in 1860, lets see how you score in 2010?
“Obozo managed to fool more than 52% of Virginia voters whereas he fooled less than 43% of those in West Virginia last time around.”
We started the take back with the Governor’s election. There will be no happy tales of campaign success for the obamawankers in VA. Hopefully, WVA will be able to say the same.
Someone should make an updated graph or line chart that shows where certain words are falling on the liberal-conservative line.
I have a feeling the word “centrist” is closer to liberal than it is to the true center.
Evidenced buy the Left willing to be called centrist and a true conservative would never want to be called centrist as currently defined. Even though conservatism is truly the norm(center point) for the country in terms of where people really stand, at least for now.
I repeat the question asked above, if any West Virginian’s on here can answer.....why would WV go blue? This is a coal mining state, proud hard working Americans, the kind that liberals insult as bible toting, clinging to their guns and religion. Plus the 0 has said several times that he will shut coal mines down.
why oh why do they keep voting for Dem politicians...Byrd, and now this Manchin dude? Please explain the WV mindset. I wholly respect our hardworking AMERICAN coal miners, which is why i am confused that the state woudl vote so stupidly for liberals.
I will explain WV.
It is Texas and Georgia and Alabama but stuck in 1972. Most of the notable statewide or federal Dems are Pro Life, Pro NRA, Pro Small Business. Like Former State Senator, Then Secretary of State, Now Governor and soon to be Senator, Joe Manchin.
The Republicans, like Congresswoman Capito and the GOP Chairman, are pro big coal, and pro choice.
Rich Republicans and big coal vs the little labor circa 1920s has NOT been forgotten.
When everyone knows JOE and where he came from, and then they contrast to Pro Choice, Pro Homo, Rich Republicans like Capito and Millionaire John Raese, it is a no brainer.
Raese will not get 35%. If he spends 18 million or if he DIES tomorrow and thus spends NOTHING.
He will get 32-35% from broken glass Republicans who live in the northern panhandle DC area. Capito’s district.
The rest of the state will vote for Manchin. Including half the Republicans who are Pro Life!
West Virginians for Life, West Virgina Family Council, West Virgina NRA will ALL endorse Manchin.
Raese is a 3 time loser who can’t break into the 40’s spending millions and owning all the radio stations in the state!!
Raese is supported by the same folks who support CRIST, MCCAIN, SNOWE, GRAHAM, SPECTOR and the rest of the RINOs.
This is why. This is WV. All the GOP are RINOs, and the Dems are all still 1972 Southern “Phil Gramm and Sam Nunn” types.
Unless one of the other 10 GOP candidates is smart enough to beat Raese and then able to raise money, no chance of anything but SSDD coming out of WV anytime in this lifetime.
Whoever wins this one, is Senator for LIFE.
As someone who was born and raised in South Western Virginia before moving to West Virginia, I believe I know why WV votes the way it does.
The people, by and large, are socially conservative and fairly devout Christians but have bought into the idea that the Democratic Party is the party of the working man. I suspect there are various factors at work to produce this idea, but not the least of which is the massive amount of people who are employed in the mining industry.
Those who have any experience with this industry will understand that, while most mines are not unionized, they are also inherantly dangerous and the idea that “a non-unionized mine is a dangerous mine” becomes subconciously attached to the idea that the Democrats, who support the Unions, are “for the working man” because they support Unionized mines, a.k.a. “safe mines”.
The far South Western portions of Virginia as well as the Eastern portions of Kentucky are much the same in terms of social and religious backgrounds and have a fairly common history of electing Republicans to the White House but also voting for Democrats at other levels of government, including Congress. The major thing that they all have in common is a massive reliance upon the mining industry.
Great analysis and I don’t doubt a word of it. But I’m wondering what you think about my hypothesis in the original article - will the voters of West Virginia go against their traditional Democratic loyalties this time around because a vote for Machin is a vote for one more Senator that will support the Obama agenda?
Good points,and a well reasoned anlaysis (with a nice writing style to boot) but the same argument could have been applied to the Deep South in the 60’s....and now it’s pretty solidly Red..As the Dem party moves further left..and is taken over more and more by the crazies, WV will go RED..it’s just a question of when...I suspect that many Dems/ indies who will not vote for Manchen, aren’t comfortable saying that now to a pollster..it’s a fairly taciturn state..BTW...what’s with Shelly.can/is she going to run for BOTH her House seat and the Senate?
More....
NO Shelly did not take advantage of the “LBJ” loophole and will NOT run. She may NEVER run depending on WHO else does. She would need to run against a VERY liberal “new” Dem to beat them.
Raese cannot get more than 35%. Period. Ever. No matter HOW much “McCain spin he puts on it. He is known by the right wing in the GOP and a total rich cat by the poor Dems.
ZERO Cross over for him.
Now... someone ELSE could take advantage of the “effect” sweeping the nation. But know it is NOT Sweeping WV.
Manchin will LIE and be BELIEVED. Let that go.
Without 1 million PLUS in Mail all Negative and a relentless grassroots effort, no one can beat him.
But, politics is like football. The 10-6 Giants CAN beat the 19-0 Patriots.
And it IS possible to BEAT “Status Quo Joe”. But it is not John Raese. Rumors had it a State Senator Clark Barnes might run, but it looks like he knew he couldn’t raise money.
So that leaves only one other half serious guy and he has issues to overcome. Mac Warner.
Warners can raise money, but they don’t HAVE money. And they have connections but burned bridges from the primary for Governor a few years back.
If he could beat Raese in a Primary and NOT alienate the GOP moderates... he COULD in theory tie Manchin to Obama and get that 11% swing vote in a low turnout year and win.
But it is a Giants vs Patriots one in a thousand long long shot.
The real problem is the State Party. RINOS. Pro Aborts. Sodomites. And they HATE Warner’s clan more than they hate Dems. I dunno HOW you get past that with a Primary and only 4 weeks to do it.
A miracle?
Yeah, about that level.
God comes down and stops the bullets.
Anything less, and we get LIBERAL JOE for dot ever!!
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