Posted on 07/09/2010 5:10:03 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin cranked up her 2012 presidential campaign another notch today, with the release of a campaign video aimed directly at women. The basic math is simple. If she gets half of the female primary voters and caucus attenders to support her, then she standing starts at roughly 25% of the total vote. Throw in a third of the male vote and she's at roughly 40%. Forty percent wins the Iowa caucuses, handily.
Which then sets up New Hampshire as the place where the not-Sarah candidate emerges. In all likelihood, that will be former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who finished second in NH in 2008 and who will spend whatever it takes to win there in 2012.
Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.
As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.
"She's too stupid" is what the Establishment GOP really thinks about Sarah Palin. "Good-looking," but a "ditz." This is unfertile ground, since Palin can turn the argument on a dime and say: "They drive the country into bankruptcy, they underwrite Fannie and Freddie, they bail out Goldman Sachs, they fight wars they don't want to win, they say enforcing the immigration laws is silly and they call me stupid! I'll give you a choice: you can have their smarts or my stupidity, which one do you want?" A large number of GOP presidential primary voters will take Palin's "stupidity" in a heartbeat.
What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.
Have the BAFTE and ICE switch rolls but retain their budget, tactics and regard for civil rights.
In two weeks you would be free to shoot a gun in City Hall and a cannon off your porch but there would not be an illegal alien to be found.
If the will is there it can easily be done. The rank and file American want the illegals the hell out. It is the POS politicians that don't.
To say "we can't" is an absolute lie.
Debunked?? What has been debunked. Reality is what it, is. Gov Palin quit her responsibilities as Governor because the job was going to become much harder. There is nothing here to bunk or debunk. It is a matter of reality. Reasons and excuses for doing such are fine, but the reality remains the same. Furthermore Gov Palin so no problem bringing her family into the ugly media mix when she took the VP spot (knowing full well what was coming for her daughter). So the notion that she left her responsibilities because of family concerns just doesn't hold any water with me.
No need for you to be asking others to educate themselves when you provide "depth" like that and suggest it means / shows anything.
Mrs. Palin is not the best person we conservatives have to put forth in 2012. If you think she is, so be it. Regards.
The only McLame ads that I’ve heard played over and over where I am, is his JD attack ads on the TV or my Truck Radio.
Talk about your ugly scenario...
So, SJB, have you decided who you’re supporting for 2012 yet?
So, who would that be then, if not Sarah Palin?
Hogwash.
Outside of politics ?
Sarah Palin is dominating politics. Sarah Palin is probably the reason Nikki Haley is going to be the next governor of South Carolina.
You want her to leave politics ?
Would a "Romneybot" author a vanity thread entitled "Mitt Romney, you Socialist RINO quisling, I will never vote for you"?
Oh wait, I wrote that thread on July 6, 2009...one year and four days ago!
Thanks for those stats. People need to know.
As I have continued to state, you can join someone to moderate them, but if you’re supporting them for re-election, you’re basically saying you support what they have done in the past.
This is John’s past: http://www.hotr.us/data/mccainagain.html
I will never cast a vote for John McCain or someone who thinks he’s worthy of re-election.
I was afraid her policies would begin to look more and more like MeCain’s. Now she’s latched onto the pathway nonsense. That pathway nonsense will wind up seeing over 100 million new U. S. residents mainly from Mexico, and more from Central and South America.
Good grief. Can’t wait to have that instilled in the ‘Grizzly Mamas’ across the nation.
I wish this woman would learn that you don’t really need to be saying something every moment, to be thought of as intelligent. In fact, it may actually be detrimental.
You spin as well as any reporter for the MSM. Sarah Palin resigned, but you insist on using the term "quit". It doesn't take a genius to see that your selection of terms is designed to inflict maximum damage on Sarah Palin's character and reputation.
Secondly, you insert your own assumption that she left the Governorship, "because the job was going to become much harder." This is an outright slander on your part. It's pure invention, and again, spat out by you to inflict maximum damage to Sarah Palin.
Reasons and excuses for doing such are fine, but the reality remains the same.
The reality is that Sarah Palin was out-gunned and about to be overrun by the barrage of frivolous lawsuits coming from leftist operatives. She was essentially in an indefensible position, and would have been thoroughly destroyed, had she stood her ground in the Governorship. That's reality.
Some of her detractors aren't intelligent enough to grasp the situational dynamics which were in play at that time, and there are some who haven't bothered to get all of the facts of that siege, but I don't think you're one of them.
You appear to me to be one of those people who have seized on this one incident in her career to tar and feather her with, despite all facts, logic, and reason. You can't admit to the sound reasoning behind her decision to leave the Governorship because that would deprive you of the club you're using to beat her with.
I'm sure you vilify George Washington for his many retreats in the Revolutionary War - just as you do Sarah Palin. Using your logic, he should have commanded his army to stand fast at New York so that they could be slaughtered to the last man, and the cause of American independence lost.
I don't know what motivates people like you to attack one of this country's finest and most important patriots. I'm not sure that I even want to. The simple reality is that you do.
The "pathway" being touted is nothing more than a euphemism for "amnesty."
There already are established tracks to gain lawful admission, residency, and citizenship in the United States, so why create another one?
over 100 million new U. S. residents mainly from Mexico, and more from Central and South America.
I don't mind new immigration--as I myself am the product of two lawful immigrants that arrived here during the waves in the early '80s--but new immigration of that magnitude over a relatively short time span is simply asking for trouble.
The bigger problem, though, is that dangling a general amnesty for tens of millions of unlawfully-present foreign nationals is an inducement for others to unlawfully migrate here in hopes of gaining amnesty. And, even worse, offering an amnesty demonstrates that our own elected officials have no respect for the rule of law, a fundamental American principle, their own actions notwithstanding.
And Sarah Palin will be considered by most to be the best of the 21st century.
Having worked for Reagan, I'm surprised that you don't see her obvious high caliber and similarities to the great man. Perhaps that's precisely why you don't see them.
No one will ever replace RWR, but that doesn't mean that there aren't other Americans who possess the same, or similar qualities.
Grassroots conservatives like Reagan and Palin really flush 'em out, don't they? :)
Many of these folks are establishment types who worship at the altar of Ford/Bush/Rumsfeld/Cheney/Romney and who will, with a straight face, tell you "we're all Reaganites now" while using him to stab another grassroots conservative in the back. Don't kid yourself about who these people are.
The people around Ronald Reagan, the true Reaganites, knew who they were and are. People like Lyn Nofziger who, when asked his opinion on potential VP candidates and the name Donald Rumsfeld came up, said as only he could, "Rummy would be fine, but you realize we'd have to hire a food taster for Reagan!" LOLOL.
” And Sarah Palin will be considered by most to be the best of the 21st century. “
The chance of her being nominated are one in one hundred.
” Now she’s latched onto the pathway nonsense. “
Correction: She has ALWAYS been on the “pathway” nonsense.
” So, SJB, have you decided who you’re supporting for 2012 yet?”
Who is running?
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